1. Social Networks in the Real World: The Struggle for Positional Advantage Graham Room 17 March 2011

2. Introduction Mathematics of graphs Computational modelling of network dynamics  Random  Scale free  Evolutionary models Ludwig and Abel (2007) Jain and Krishna (2003) Empirical measurement and explanation Lessons and tools for policy makers Not easy to link up

3. Social networks Anthropological studies of social networks Watts: Small worlds Granovetter: strong and weak ties Rather static  Basic metrics: Scott, J. (2000), Social Network Analysis

4. Lone Parents Lone parent families at risk of poverty and social exclusion 1997 Labour Government:  New Deal for Lone Parents: support movement from welfare to employment  Advice services  Requirement to seek work (if no child below 7 years): work interview, action plan  Child and Working Tax Credits  Expansion of childcare services

5. Evaluation of policy Conventional evaluation:  Calculate resources by reference to poverty line  Poverty dynamics over time: long-term and short- term poverty  Incentive effects of wages and benefits Millar and Ridge: longitudinal qualitative panel  Navigating/weaving new institutional landscape  Income – time – freedom of manoeuvre

6. Institutional ‘eco-system’ Ecosystem/food web as a network  Sole and Bascompte (2006), Self-Organization in Complex Ecosystems, Ch 6 Heterogeneous nodes and edges Stasis/resilience versus cascades of change Critical transitions in those ecosystems  Scheffer, M (2009), Critical Transitions in Nature and Society

8. Benefits Office Lone Mother and Children

9. Lone Mother and children Benefits Office Tax officeWorkmatesEmployerNeighboursSchool Extended Family

10. Lone Mother and children Benefits Office Tax officeWorkmatesEmployerNeighboursSchool Extended Family

11. Research and Policy Questions Can government policy trigger transition?  What other changes are needed? Escape or lock-in? How resilient?  Rising unemployment and public spending cuts  Loss of key supporters  Does resilience depend more on financial or social ‘capital’?

12. Analytical Challenge (1) Map interdependent ‘institutional ecosystems’ empirically and over time Models of network evolution (ideal types)  Frozen/forced sub-systems  Cascades of wider configuration Empirical measurement of longitudinal panel:  Adjacency matrix as it changes over time?  Eigen values ……?  Monitor critical transitions?

13. Analytical Challenge (2) Social actors as weavers of networks  Reflection and intentional re-design  Can we model as a simple algorithm? Signed networks:  Friend and enemy  Strain of local imbalance  Ludwig and Abel: computational model of network that evolves

14. Signed networks and Lone Mothers Entitlements and obligations (plus and minus)  Credits and debits  Thresholds and limits  Time horizons for settlement  Degree of fungibility

15. Analytical Challenge (3) Local balance of entitlements and obligations Reflect on global position not just local Imbalance and positional advantage in future Runaway loops (John Powell) Are computational models here even in principle possible?

16. A C B D E F + + + + _ _ _ _ __

17. Other Institutional Eco-systems National and international struggle among universities for reputational advantage Global struggle for positional advantage and leverage among nations, corporations, etc

18. Reading Granovetter, M. (1973), 'The Strength of Weak Ties', American Journal of Sociology, 78: 1360-80. Jain, S. and S. Krishna (2003), 'Graph Theory and the Evolution of Autocatalytic Networks ' in S. Bornholdt and H. G. Schuster (ed) Handbook of Graphs and Networks Ludwig, M. and P. Abell (2007), 'An Evolutionary Model of Social Networks', European Physical Journal B, 58: 97-105. Millar, J. and T. Ridge (2009), 'Relationships of Care: Working Lone Mothers, their Children and Employment Sustainability'. Journal of Social Policy 38(1) 103-121 Sole and Bascompte (2006), Self-Organization in Complex Ecosystems Scheffer, M (2009), Critical Transitions in Nature and Society