1. The Use of Conceptual Models in the Solano Co. HCP/NCCP Rebecca Doubledee LSA Associates Inc.

2. Talk Outline What is a model? What is the benefit of using models in the Solano Co. HCP/NCCP? Where do conceptual models fit into the NCCP/HCP Conservation Program and adaptive management feedback loop? What are the key components of a management- oriented conceptual model? I will go over an example of a conceptual model developed for the California tiger salamander Hierarchy of models: how we will go from species to natural community models Following strategy outlined by Atkinson et al. (2004) –Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive management context for regional multiple species conservation plans

3. What is a model? A model is a simplified description of a complex entity or process such as a species or ecosystem.

4. Benefits of Using Conceptual models Summarize existing knowledge and hypotheses about a system Identify and prioritize critical uncertainties that require further research and important components of the system to monitor Communicate understanding of the system Facilitate outside review of the conservation and management programs Link conservation plan goals and objectives to causes of change and to management activities and program actions –i.e. complete the adaptive management loop.

5. Where do conceptual models fit into the NCCP/HCP adaptive management feedback loop? Sections 3, 4 and 5 of the Solano Co. HCP/NCCP Help complete the adaptive management loop

6. Key Components of a management-oriented conceptual model State of Environment: the condition of ecological processes, habitats, and species (and their inter-relationships), which are directly or indirectly addressed by program objectives. Pressures: agents that either promote or inhibit change in the state of the environment. Pressures can be anthropogenic or natural and may include natural constraints such as seed dispersal. Effects: these are changes resulting from either Pressures or Program Actions Program Actions: these include the conservation strategy of the NCCP/HCP and ongoing management activities expected to impact the state of Environment or Pressures.

7. State of Environment: California Tiger Salamander Conceptual Model Breeding Adults Eggs and Larvae Juveniles/ subadults Adults Adults migrate to aquatic breeding sites during fall and early winter then migrate back into upland habitat. Less than 1% are expected to move more than 0.7 miles. Multiple breeding sites should be within 0.7 miles of each other. Key population parameter is number of returning females. Eggs are laid singly or In clumps on both submerged and emergent vegetation or in ponds without vegetation, on the bottom or on submerged debris in shallow water. Larvae are 10.5 mm in length when hatched and vary from 41 to 78 mm at metamorphosis. Metamorphosis occurs in late spring or early summer, 60 to 94 days after the eggs are laid. Larvae need ponds with a hydroperiod of approximately 3 months or more Juveniles emerge in early summer and seek shelter in rodent burrows. 95% of subadults were found within 1968 ft (600m) of breeding habitat. Adult salamanders are terrestrial, living underground in mammal Burrows. Need at least 330 acres of upland habitat to support a viable population

10. Steps to Developing Natural Community Conceptual Models 1.Identify the needs and important pressures affecting covered species 2.Combine species models to identify the important pressures affecting natural communities 3.Develop a Conservation and Management Program that addresses the needs of the covered species and the natural communities.

11. Step 2 Combine Species Models +…++ = Species 1Species 2Species n Natural Community Conceptual Model Primary Pressures (Land Use Practices) Secondary Pressures (Consequences of Land Use Practices) Habitat Variables/ Ecological Processes Covered Species Affected

12. Valley Floor Grassland and Vernal Pool Community Model Fairy Shrimp Community Models Plant/Insect Community Models Plant Community Models Insect Community Models CTS Model Burrowing Owl Mountain Plover

13. Multiple Community Assemblages Model Multiple Natural Mommunity Assemblages Model (Landscape Model) Valley Floor Grassland and Vernal Pool Community Model Upland Community Model Costal Marshes Model Riparian and Freshwater Marshes Model

14. Summary Conceptual models will help to….. –Summarize existing knowledge and hypotheses about the covered species and natural communities –Identify and prioritize critical uncertainties that require further research and important components of the system to monitor –Communicate understanding of the system –Facilitate outside review of the conservation and management programs –Complete the adaptive management loop