1. Diretrizes de Políticas Públicas para a Agroindústria Canavieira do Estado de São Paulo Projeto Diretrizes de Políticas Públicas para a Agroindústria Canavieira do Estado de São Paulo Workshop BIOEN/PPP Etanol on Sugarcane Photosynthesis Fapesp, February 18th, 2009

2. www.apta.sp.gov.br/cana

3. Brazilian Production Evolution of Production: sugarcane, sugar and ethanol

4. Learning Curve – Brazilian Ethanol

5. Brazilian Ethanol: reasons for success Brazil established a dynamic relation between Research and Production since the 30’ies Sugarcane, an excellent energy crop Creation of the “Brazilian Model” combining efficient sugar and ethanol production

6. Productivity (t/ha) 77.7 81.5 73.3 55.7 IBGE, 2003 Season 06/07 - 84 t/ha

9. BIOFUEL PRODUCTION COSTS Biofuel/FeedstockUS$/L gasoline or diesel eq. Ethanol Sugarcane0.25 – 0.50 Maize0.50 – 0.80 Sugar beet0.63 – 0.83 Wheat0.70 – 0.95 Lignocellulose0.80- 1.10 Biodiesel Animal fat0.40 – 0.55 Vegetable oil0.70 – 1.00 Lignocellulose (FT)0.90 – 1.10 Gasoline/Diesel 1 0.16 – 0.50 Doornbosch and Steenblink, 2007 Note: 1. Oil price US$ 20 – 70/barrel

10. ETHANOL AND BIODIESEL GHG REDUCTION Biofuel/CropGHG Emission Reduction Ethanol 1 Sugarcane90 % Lignocellulose70 - 90 % Sugar beet40 - 50 % Maize13 % Biodiesel 2 Rapeseed/soybeans40 - 50 % Palm oil35 % Doornbosch and Steenblik Notes: 1. Compared with gasoline; 2. Compared with mineral diesel

11. PROCESSMaize 1 Switchgrass 1 Cane 2 (GJ/ha.yr) Energy consumption in agriculture 18.917.813.9 Biomass energy149.5 3 220.2297.1 4 Energy ratio in agriculture7.912.321.3 Energy consumption in distillery 47.910.23.4 Ethanol energy content67.1 5 104.4132.5 6 Total energy ratio1.214.438.32 Notes: 1-Source: ORNL, 2- Source: Copersucar/UNICAMP, 3- Corn Stover not included,4- Tops and leaves not included, 5- Does not include credit for co- products, 6-Includes credit for 8% bagasse surplus ENERGY BALANCE IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION

12. Present Location of Sugar-Ethanol Mills in Brazil

13. Near Term Expansion of New Sugar- Ethanol Mills ( ), C-S

14. Area [10 6 ha] Pasture Soybean 150-200 22 Corn11 Sugarcane Others 7 21 Agric. land 61 Brazil: 851 10 6 ha Total Arable land: 350 10 6 ha Brazil: main crops 2007

15. POTENTIAL FOR SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION: SOIL AND CLIMATE - WITHOUT IRRIGATION Amazon Rainforest Pantanal Atlantic Forest Other important preservation areas Above 12% slope area High Average Low ( World average ) Inapropriate

16. POTENTIAL FOR SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION: SOIL AND CLIMATE – WITH IRRIGATION Amazon Rainforest Pantanal Atlantic Forest Other important preservation areas Above 12% slope area High Average Low ( World average ) Inapropriate

17. R$/m 3 (%) Raw Material (cane) 390 68.5 Industrial Cost 133 23.3 Management Cost 47 8.2 Total 570 100.0 Ethanol Production Cost

18. 200520152025 Cane Prod. (t/ha.year) 708296 Pol (%) cane 14.515.917.3 Industrial efficiency (%) 83.590.0 Liters ethanol/ha 6,0008,20010,400 Expected Productivity Gains

19. 200520152025 Technology l/tcl/hal/tcl/hal/tcl/ha Conventional 856,0001008,20010910,400 Hydrolysis -------141,100373,500 Total 856,0001149,30014613,900 area needed for 104 M l17 M ha7.5 M ha Impact of New Technologies

20. SugarcaneEnergy Cane Produtivity (t/ha.year) 70100 Fiber (%) cane13.526.0 Trash (%) cane14025.0 Pol (%) cane14.512.0 Total fiber (t/ha.year) 19.351.0 Primary Energy (GJ/ha.year) 520 (12.5 toe)1.100 (26 toe) Sugarcane Primary Energy

21. Questions: What are the limits for traditional sugarcane breeding ? What is sugarcane productivity potential? Is sugarcane productivity close to its potential? Natural selection really optimizes or there is a way to make it better? Is “energy cane” possible? What is the current status of photosynthesis in the world today? What are the most important bottlenecks?