1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 January 12, 2010

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10AOSS 480 001 W10 2008 Class On Line:2008 Class –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html –And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm

3. Course News NO CLASS on January 19 th and 21 st 2010 Next Week –We will make these up through project meetings. Syllabus on web site

4. Today Course Description Overview Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem What is (and is not) “science?” How is (thinking about) the response to Global Warming organized? Relation of climate change and other big ticket items.

5. From Course Description Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. –Where should we pay attention? –What do we know versus what do we believe? Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements –How big is the problem? How is all of this changing?

6. Course News Project –Grade will be determined primarily on the project Start to think about them – perhaps today Teams that bring together several elements of the project –Should be no larger than 4 people. –Should not be your friends that have the same background. Should be defined by late January –I will provide a template for thinking about the problem. We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course –That means I will provide management / customer oversight. Final presentations at the end –Five or less small (1 page) writing exercises during the course.

7. Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change Some global climate predictions

8. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

9. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non- controversial. The prediction: IPCC 2001

10. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

11. Projections of Temperature in 2100 Figures from 2007 IPCC Report2007 IPCC Report Geographical Distribution of Warming 2090-2099 (Scenario A1B: Syn_Report, SummPolMaker, Fig. 6)Syn_Report, SummPolMakerFig. 6 Projection of Global Average Surface Temperature (WG_1, SummPolMaker, Fig. 5)WG_1, SummPolMakerFig. 5 Projections: The Surface will warm, Ice will melt, Sea level will rise, Weather will change. IPCC 2007

12. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

13. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

14. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

15. That’s a glimpse into climate change We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve, with carbon dioxide increasing. I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds heat close to the surface. I showed curves and graphs of global averaged surface temperature, past, present, and future. Showed sea level and snow melt.

16. So what do you think? What are the strengths of what has been presented? What are the weaknesses of what has been presented? Anything intriguing or especially interesting about what has been presented?

17. What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water –Precipitation –Evaporation –Humidity Air Composition –Air quality –Aerosols –Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

18. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate

19. Scientific investigation of climate change What is scientific investigation? –Scientific methodScientific method How do we get started?

20. What is science, the scientific method? Elements of the scientific method –Observations of some phenomenon –Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses –In principle, hypotheses are testable: Experiments: cause and effect Prediction instead of experiments? –Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis. Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? –Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions. Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed.

21. What is science, the scientific method? Science is a process of investigation –The results of scientific investigation are the generation of Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge? –Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that we feel certain. Theories develop out of tested hypotheses. –Theory is NOT conjecture –Theory is subject to change –There is constant challenge and testing –Science requires validation Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.

22. What is science, the scientific method? Science is a process of investigation –Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests. –Do you feel that scientific investigation of the climate is “transparent?” –Do you feel that independent investigators affirm basic conclusions?

23. Science, Scientific Method Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results –But the fact that it is independently testable, ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.

24. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY PREDICTION

25. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSPROCESSES MODELING

26. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY EXPERIMENT

27. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY EXPERIMENT Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration

28. What is science, the scientific method? We always have these attributes in the scientific method –Observations of some phenomenon –Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? How do we affect “control?” What is “control?” We are seeking cause and effect. –Validation, can I predict the behavior? –Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?

29. Let “science” sit for a while.

30. Let’s suppose that global warming is real. See what I did, I just said global warming instead of climate change.

31. What to do? Let’s assume for a moment that we have convincing observations of climate change, convincing predictions of climate change, and that we will need to respond to the climate change. How do we organize this problem?

32. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 It’s not an either / or argument.

33. Some definitions (more… )more… Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. Resilience: The ability to adapt. Geo-engineering: The notion that we can manage the balance of total energy of the atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land to yield a stable climate in the presence of changing greenhouse gases.

34. A point or two Mitigation and adaptation have different characteristics. –A major one is the amount of time for them to be effective. The very long time scales of the climate change problem mean that any advantages of controlling the increase of CO 2 are perceived many years after the action to control the increase. –Cause and effect are difficult to evaluate –Cost and benefit are difficult to evaluate Adaptation is far easier to evaluate.

35. A point of tension The discussion of mitigation and adaptation is one of the places where we see tension of beliefs. There was, for some time, the idea that if we talked about adaptation, then we would dismiss mitigation. Plus to talk about adaptation would be to admit there is climate change. –Only recently that adaptation has entered into discourse. –What about global geo-engineering?

36. Relationship of Climate Change to Other Things

37. Climate Change Relationships We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGEENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

38. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 Source: International Energy Agency 2005International Energy Agency 2005 * megaton oil equivalent

39. Climate Change Relationships Consumption // Population // Energy CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION SOCIETAL SUCCESS

40. Climate Change Relationships Climate change is linked to consumption. –The economy depends on us consuming –Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change. –The consumption that has set us on this road of global warming has been by a relatively small percentage of the population. Wealth is an important variable. Hence, social equity is an issue.

41. Some challenges If it was not clear when you woke up this morning, climate change touches every element of society. –It sits in relationship with some other fundamental societal challenges. Solutions will be required to infiltrate all elements of society. –What sort of things scale to all society?

42. SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences) Belief SystemValuesPerceptionCultural MandateSocietal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … Security Food Environmental National Societal Success Standard of Living...???... ECONOMICSPOLICY “BUSINESS”PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE ENERGY RELIGIONLAW

43. That is the preface for the course. Did you see yourself in this pass through the problem? There is not a simple “solution;” we will not solve this problem and walk away from it. We will be required to manage the climate. Do you see ways forward?

44. Next time: Fundamental Science of Climate