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The “ recovery ” from the crisis and the prospects for LDCs Igor Paunovic Economic Affairs Officer, Research and Policy Analysis Branch, ALDC
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Content of the presentation “Recovery” from the crisis in LDCs World economy after the crisis of 2008- 2009 Short- and medium-term prospects for LDCs Long-term prospects for LDCs Policy lessons
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“Recovery” from the crisis in LDCs
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World economy after the crisis of 2008-2009
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Pre-crisis model based on imbalances Crisis – large fiscal and monetary stimulus The worst avoided, but at what cost? Continuation of the crisis in a different form Two-track economy and the “decoupling” Rebalancing of the world economy “Arab spring” and the impact on LDCs
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Short- and medium-term prospects for LDCs
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How far could one go on with the existing model? The crisis as an opportunity for change Towards a paradigm change The ingredients of the new model What is needed from the international community? Development-led globalization
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Long-term prospects for LDCs
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Policy lessons
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Current model based on commodity exports is not sustainable The growth has to be inclusive Diversification and structural transformation are necessary A paradigm shift is needed Development-led globalization would also enhance the possibilities of LDCs
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