1. Actions & Activities Report PP8 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2.1Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2Analysis of Variability and Extremes and 2.3Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling Hermann Österle, Uwe Böhm, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Peter C. Werner & Martin Wodinski 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece

2. Working Schedule Deliverables Homogenized data records, updated station data set (to be delivered starting in Dec. 2006) Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Setup of a common list of the requested parameters and length of time series supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK’s data base Quality control and homogeneity analysis Filling of gaps and homogenisation of time series Compilation of a common (gridded) data set for the CADSES regions Data sets update and technology provision Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece

3. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological observations 1. Collection of meteorological station data (I-VII 2006) 1271 station time series from different sources obtained for Europe (580 of them located in the CADSES regions) (ECA - 117; European NMS - 219; NCDC/USA - 921 /since 1979, incomplete/; project partners - 14) ECA – European Climate Assessment project; NMS – National Meteorological Service; NCDC – National Climate Data Centre Spatial distribution of the long (red) and short (since 1979, blue) European daily meteorological station time series, collected into PIK‘s data base Changes in the number of precipitation and temperature stations observations (Germany + 2342 stations, 1951-2003)

4. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 1. Collection of meteorological station data – Results & Conclusions – Compilation of a common dataset with sufficient spatial and temporal coverage based on station observations can not be ensured Alternative: Creating of daily gridded dataset for temperature and precipitation Basis data: - daily grid data (ERA40, 0.5*0.5°, 1958-2002) - daily observations (1271 stations, 1958-2003) - monthly grid data (PIK-GCD, 0.5*0.5°,1901-2005) ERA40- daily Reanalysis of ECMWF PIK-GCD – PIK Global Climate Dataset of monthly grid data (at PIK homogenized and updated CRU-data set) Approach: ERA40  initial values for the monthly internal variability observations  adjustment of ERA40 values within a month PIK-GCD  adjustment (normalization) of monthly means (totals) to the correct monthly values

5. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 2. Quality control and homogeneity analysis (VI-X.2006) -All station data are controlled and homogenized -ERA40 are compared with observation: Temperature: *ERA40 is 0.3°K to warm, *correlation of ERA40 to observation: 0.95 (summer and winter) Precipitation: *ERA40 is 20-25% to dry (winter better as summer), *correlation of ERA40 to observation: 0.5 (summer) 0.7 (winter) *years 1972, 2002-2004 are 40-50% too moist Precipitation difference ERA40 - PIK-GCD (means for 1958-2003)

6. Annual precipitation, CADSES regions Monthly mean precipitation; correlation (ERA40 – observations) and (PIK-GCD – observations) for Germany only Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 2. Quality control and homogeneity analysis (VI-X.2006)

7. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 3. Generation of a gridded homogenous data set by merging daily ERA40 data, daily observations and monthly PIK-GCD data Approach: where: iy, im, id = date, j = number of grid‘s point; = weighted mean value from ns nearest stations, where: ns = number of nearest stations, = weight, directly proportional to spatial autocorrelation For precipitation : if

8. Conclusions Activities in action 2.1 processed as scheduled. A first version of a spatio-temporal homogeneous gridded temperature and precipitation data set is prepared. Until March-April 2007 all project partners will via FTP have access to these data for statistical analysis and hydrological modeling Thanks for your attention 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations

9. Working Schedule Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Adaptation of statistical methodologies for data diagnosis Analysis of (coarse-res.) data sets for individual extreme indicator trends Analysis of (high-res.) data records for individual extreme indicators Higher-order multivariate data analysis Deliverables Quantitative Indicators for climatic extremes, natural variability and trends (gridded data set, technical reports, to be delivered in 2007) Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece

10. Analysis of high- & coarse-resolution data sets for extreme indicators and their trends Retrieval of coarse-resolution (HadCM3) data for analysis of extremes Characterization of present-day conditions (high-res.) and future trends (coarse-res.) Comparison of present-day analysis results to those for the high-resolution gridded data set (added value of regionalization) Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece

11. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece Potential drought risk Indicator: Climatological annual total water balance P-Ep PGCD 1961/1990 PGCD +  HadCM3(A2_1 – 20C) 2041/2070 Changes 2041/2070 – 1961/1990  (P-E p ) [mm] -300 -200 -150 -120 -90 -60 -30 0 0 50 100 200 400 600 800 1000 -50 -100 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 (P-E p ) [mm]

12. Working Schedule Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Compilation of forcing data for a regio- nal climate model from analyses Model evaluation using station observations and adaptation to the region Reconstruction of past climatic condi- tions Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics Deliverables Area-wide spatial homogeneous and high-resolution (~ 10 km) extreme indicators on a grid (technical report, gridded data set, drought indicators, to be delivered starting in Dec. 2006) Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece

13. Model area CADSES climate reconstructions 0.44°/0.165° horizontal resolution Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece

14. Model Evaluation and Adaptation Evaluation of a 15-year CLM climate reconstruction run with respect to components of the hydrological cycle using station-related and gridded observations Analysis of soil moisture initialization in the CLM preprocessor Implementation of a new soil moisture initialization scheme (more moisture at initial time) Implications for regional climate reconstructions (ongoing) Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece

15. Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece 15-Year Mean Total Annual Precipitation 1979-1993 2500 2000 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 -50-15-1010515 10 0 -10 -20 [mm/year] 10 0 -10 -20 -50-15-1010515 CLM 2.0 CRU (High Res. Europe)

16. Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece Precipitation Reference: QUIRCS Quantification of Uncertainties In Regional Climate and climate change Simulations http://www.tu-cottbus.de/meteo/Quircs/home.html CLM 2.0796 ERA758 CRU817 BTU-REMO 5.0812 QUIRCS M1802 QUIRCS M2725 Area Mean Annual Cycle CRU Region (9612 Grid Points)

17. Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece Integral soil moisture [m(H 2 O)] 0 - 8.62 m depth Old intitialization scheme New intitialization scheme Difference in integral soil moisture [m(H 2 O)] up to 8.62 m depth New – Old Scheme Area mean soil moisture profile New Scheme Old Scheme Soil moisture content [m(H 2 O)] Soil layer center depth [m] Soil moisture calculation 01. July 01 00 UTC

18. Actions 2.2 & 2.3 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece Activities in both actions in general processed as scheduled Action 2.2  Task “Analysis of (high-res.) data records for individual extreme indicators” earlier started than scheduled (data required for additional task see next point)  Task “Analysis of (coarse-res.) data sets for individual extreme indicator trends” added and started without any further manpower or money requirements (rough estimates for long-term changes) Action 2.3  Task “model evaluation” has to be extended until 02/2007 with no significant delay  Task “Reconstruction of past climatic conditions” will run in parallel Conclusions

19. 1 th HYDROCARE Conference 18 th – 19 th January, 2007, Athens, Greece Newspaper, Potsdam, 10 th January 2007 Thank You again !