1. Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Trend reversal in Childlessness in Sweden Lotta Persson Forecast Institute Statistics Sweden Lisbon 28-30 April 2010

2. 2 The model for fertility assumptions Group% 2009 Swedish-born 77 Foreign-born Nordic countries 2 EU-countries 3 remaining Europe 4 countries with high HDI 2 countries with medium HDI 10 countries with low HDI 2 Assumptions for 7 groups

3. 3 Different methods Swedish-born: assumptions on the probability to give birth to the first, second, third or fourth (or more) child for each age and cohort Foreign-born: The age specific fertility is projected forward

4. 4 Method for Swedish-born First birth incidence rates for cohorts born 1970, 1975 and 1980 1970 19751980

5. 5 Method for Swedish-born Fertility for cohort born in 1975 ObservedPredicted First child Second child Third child Fourth child

6. 6 Development of childlessness Percent childless 17 % 15 %

7. 7 Development of childlessness Swedish born Percent childless 1960 1965 1970 1975 1977

8. 8 Rapid educational expansion Educational level at age 30 Year Mean age at first birth

9. 9 Educational level and childlessness 1960 1965 1970 1975 1977

10. 10 Possible reasons for the trend reversal in childlessness Increased possibility to get infecundity treatments (IVF treatments increased from 3 000 in 1991 to 12 000 in 2007). Survey in 2009 shows that it is common to have used aid to have children (40 percent of those who had their child after age 34 had used aid).

11. 11 Aid to have children – more common among women with higher education Share of women who used aid to have children by educational level and age at birth of first child

12. 12 More positive attitude towards having children among women with higher education Share of childless cohabiting or married women who answer “yes” to the question: Do you think you will have children in the future?” by age and educational level and age at birth of first child

13. 13 Future development? Percent childless

14. Thank you for listening! 14 How many of them will be childless in the future?