1. Introduction to Probability How do we find the theoretical probability of an event?

2. Vocab  Probability – likelihood an event will occur. - Expressed as a number between 0 and 1, or 0% and 100% - Probability=0 – event is impossible - Probability=1 – event is certain

3. Vocab  Sample space – set of all possible outcomes Ex. Sample space of rolling a single die is 1,2,3,4,5,6.

4. More Vocab  Event – an individual outcome or combination of outcomes. Ex. -Rolling a 3 -Rolling a 5 or rolling an even number -Rolling a 5 or rolling an even number

5. Even more vocab!  Outcome: –Result of a single trial.

6. Types of Probability  Experimental Probability – trials are performed and the results are recorded.

7. Types of Probability  Ex. A coin is flipped 100 times. Tails comes up 45 times. What is the experimental probability of flipping tails?

8. Types of Probability  Theoretical Probability – the probability based on the possible outcomes.

9. Types of Probability  Ex. Find the probability of randomly selecting an orange marble from a jar containing 8 blue marbles, 5 red marbles, and 2 orange marbles.

10. Fundamental Counting Principle  If there are m ways one event can occur and n ways that another event can occur, then there are m x n ways that both events can occur  Ex. If we have a choice of 5 appetizers, 4 drinks, 4 entrees and 6 desserts, how many different dinner combinations are possible?  5 x 4 x 4 x 6  480 combinations

11. Homework  Page 633-634 Problems 9-23, 26-29, 34-36, 44

12. Solutions  9. 3/1026. 17,576,000  10. 1/527. 6,760,000  11. 1/528. 17,576,000  12. 1/629. 6,760,000  13. 1/6  14. ½34. 39.3%  15. ½35. 25%  16. 1/336. 25%  17. ½  18. 044. 962,391,456  19. 5/6  20. 1/5  21. 3/5  22. 4/5  23. 2/5