1. Clean Air for Europe ROLE OF ENERGY BASELINE IN CAFE 28 February 2002 Matti Vainio DG Environment, Air Quality and Noise Unit

2. Cost curves Baseline emissions scenario Selection of indicators Selection of health and environmental targets for optimisation Source-receptor functions, regional and urban scale Integrated Assessment Modelling Assessment of health and environmental effects Assessment of measures, ceilings, proposed targets or commitments Analysis of costs and benefits Policy guidance Monitoring and atmos- pheric modelling Selection of alternative scenarios Identification of potential measures Development of a Baseline as part of the CAFE programme

3. Clean Air for Europe What is needed for CAFE baseline? l Emissions and corresponding air quality levels are today l Decision on time period (up to 2020) l Changes in economic activity l Changes in the structure of our economies m how well can we forecast this (China in 1980 vs. now) m knowledge of industrial experts important l Changes in autonomous technological development m NB! Link with change in economic growth!

4. Clean Air for Europe What is needed? (cont.) l Changes in output and emissions specific sectors m Agriculture m Energy mix m Transport m Industry and other sectors l Combining emissions and converting them to air quality (Integrated Assessment Model) m Assessment: are we satisfied with the outcome? l Need also knowledge about legislation that has a direct or indirect effect on air quality

5. Clean Air for Europe Effect of legislation l Current legislation (“in the bag”) m Difficult to quantify effects of some legislation (IPPC) m Legislation affecting the energy mix can be important l Legislation “in the pipeline” m What to assume about of Kyoto and Post-Kyoto? m Full electricity and gas market liberalisation by 2020? l Including Accession Candidate Countries m All are part of the EU and have transposed and implemented “aquis communautaire” fully by 2010

6. Clean Air for Europe Principles of energy and other baselines in CAFE l Serves as a shared view of what the future can bring about l Baseline should be plausible, and not a source of wishful thinking l Enjoys a wide consensus l Needs to be documented clearly and in a transparent manner l Strike a balance between “work” and “consultations”: 3 stakeholder consultations

7. Clean Air for Europe Three stakeholder consultations in CAFE First: After contractor is chosen (mid 2002) Second: When preliminary baseline ready (early 2003) Final: When draft final baseline ready (mid 2003) m All can verify that the main concerns/ suggestions have been adequately covered m CAFE baseline will be agreed Also specific workshops (e.g. transport, energy)

8. Clean Air for Europe Implications to energy baseline l Energy Outlook 2030 is the basis for CAFE m If it is constructed with the principles (plausible/transparent/shared view etc.) the energy Outlook 2030 baseline would be the same in CAFE m Requires consensus among r between the Commission and the Member States r different parts of the Commission (energy, climate and air quality) m Needs to be absolutely clear about what is included in the baseline, e.g. r How to deal with Kyoto and post-Kyoto? r What are the key external assumptions (work market prices, GDP growth rates and their sectoral composition)?

9. Clean Air for Europe Interplay between energy, climate and air quality l Energy market liberalisation: switch from coal to gas m CO2 emissions are reduced and air quality improved l Kyoto target, (shadow) price of CO2 increases m shift away from carbon based fuels (from coal to gas and to wind and hydro), CO2 emissions are reduced and air quality improved m but could also shift towards biomass burning: reduces anthropogenic CO2 emissions but increases air pollution l NEC Directive: power plants install scrubbers m requires additional energy, CO2 emissions increase, air quality improves l CAFE: reduces PM and tropospheric ozone concentrations m reduces radiative forcing (good for greenhouse gas effect even if not Kyoto gases) and improves air quality

10. Clean Air for Europe Conclusions l Do analyse these ancillary benefits and disbenefit all well, we need an excellent interplay between energy, climate and air quality baseline/modelling l Workshops like today increase understanding between different groups of people/disciplines, what the energy baseline should (and should not) include l In the Commission we are trying to get ENERGY AND TRANSPORT baselines consistent between the DGs -- what about the Member States?

11. Clean Air for Europe Further information http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/ environment/air CAFE /construction_of_baseline.pdf (CAFE baseline) /cafe.htm (CAFE in general) /cafe_steering_group.htm (latest documents) Air quality, climate change and energy use in transport sector: Assessment of TREMOVE model /tremoveassessment.htm