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Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Vice-President, Pork Analysis EMI Analytics World Pork Expo -- 2016 Livestock & Poultry Outlook
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Macro variables are a mixed bag... Latest labor market numbers are SOFT (?) -May employment grew by only 38,000 – October thru March averaged 239,000! -Labor force is record large but participation rate is still under 63% -- near record low -Unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% Real personal disposable income is still growing – 2.5% YTD after 2.63% in ‘15 Median real household income, though, is down 7.2% from ‘98 peak, 6.5% vs. ‘07
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Consumer attitudes have not improved...
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3-species RPCE was down, yr/yr, again in April..... Reversion to the mean but still on uptrend
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Beef, chicken still down in April, pork gained...
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Pork uptrend is still intact as well – for now...
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Nice yr/yr gain for pork share of RPCE in April...... YTD ‘16 average is 25.7% vs. 28.8% in ‘15
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‘15 was the year of a BIG jump in avail/cons....... growth in ‘16 will be smaller – ’17 ????
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Prices INCREASED in March – not by much...... but reflects continuing strong demand!
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Pork still has a big advantage on beef at retail...
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EMI Analytics Broiler Outlook Sue Trudell Vice President, EMI Analytics strudell@emianalytics.com
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Supply flock: +1.9% in ’15 but +0.5 & 0.6% next 2 yrs
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Weight growth slowing to <1% this year...
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Output growth slowing: 2.6% to 1.1% to 0.6% in ‘17
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Exports will rebound – but remain short of ‘14
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Small increase in PC supply in ‘16 – none in ’17 & ‘18
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Steady prices for whole birds...
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Some growth for breast meat prices...
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And continued trouble for leg quarters...
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EMI Analytics Turkey Outlook Amanda Martin Senior Analyst amartin@expressmarketsinc.com
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‘15 HPAI losses have made turkey PROFITABLE!
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Quite logical reaction: Higher output!
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Total turkey output +4% in ‘16, +3.5% in ‘17...
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And exports have NOT RECOVERED AT ALL...
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Some pressure on whole birds – more in ‘17...
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BIG pressure on breast meat – impact on hams?
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EMI Analytics Beef and Pork Outlook Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D. Vice President, Pork Analytics smeyer@emianalytics.com
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Weather is still a key factor for beef...... And conditions are great! – better even in CA!
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Record low national poor/very poor ratings
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Cow/calf profits: Tremendous incentive to grow!
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Beef cow numbers are back above 30 million...... After falling from 33 to 29 million!
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And feeder cattle supplies have FINALLY increased
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May COF: Higher numbers, sales & more current! 7.5% 1.1 – 7.1 in April 1.3% 7-5.3%
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Fed slaughter has gained steadily on ’15 levels...... Weights are at ‘15 levels – still BIG!!!
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Higher slaughter & weights = higher output...... We expect Q3 and Q4 to be +3.1 & +3.8%
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Beef summary and prices... Beef prod up ~4% in ‘16 – same in ‘17 Ch. cutout is holding near $220 – implies $138 with cash steers at $128 last week -Cutout supported by middle meats -Ribeyes retest March highs, Strip Loins retest spring ’15 highs near $9 -Round and chuck items supported by trim- mings – but well below last year’s levels May placements expected to be +7-9%, marketings remain brisk – more current
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HOGS & PORK
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Higher corn, SBM – Costs up $4+ from April... But still the lowest since 2010
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‘17 still looks good in spite of cost increases...... With ‘17 roughly breakeven at present
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April exports were down but due to April ‘15!...... We are now finished with goofy yr/yr comps.
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ALL China/HK – up 95% yr/yr, YTD now +136%...... ALL others down in April except Canada (+5%)
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More of the same – GOOD! – for PEDv... Data from 1022 sow farms, 25 of 28 large systems reporting, 2.578 mil. sows! ZERO breaks wk of 5/27, EWMA now BELOW the epidemic threshold Our outlook still contains NO PEDv ADJUSTMENTS
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March H&P – The numbers were slightly bullish...
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We still believe USDA missed the BH low...... Profits, anecdotal evidence of expansion
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And the state data raise serious questions...
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USDA’s farrowing intentions are probably good...... But USDA’s yr/yr changes are BAD – revisions
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A more useful representation of farrowings...
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We still believe USDA’s Dec-Feb pigs/litter is low... Green line = “normal”; we are splitting for now
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Higher Canadian imports continue...... Especially for feeder/weaner pigs post-MCOOL
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Slaughter has been very close to our forecasts...... Tight capacity this fall – much better in ‘17
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Pork inventories are finally back to normal...
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How much capacity growth and WHEN?
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Not much help for ‘16 – but big growth afterward
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Slaughter forecasts from March report...
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Price forecasts – It appears exports will carry us!... I added $3-$4 for both Q3 and Q4
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Cuts: Recent strength has pushed cutout value
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Risks Negative: Major export disruption – small prob, HUGE impact Neg. or Pos.: PEDv/HPAI – not likely now Positive: If PRRS/PEDv were worse? Negative: Slower demand growth -Domestic: Prefs? Wages/incomes? -Exports: CHINA/HK, $US Negative: Packing capacity crunch in Q4? Negative: Pork prices if plants are full in ‘18?
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