1. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Könnölä JRC-IPTS & Impetu Solutions The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Outline  Foresight design  Case: IMS2020  Principles for global foresight design and management & lessons learned

3. Foresight design – support to policy cycle Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Evaluation Agenda-setting Policy definition Learning Implementation Legitimacy, transparency Responsiveness of the system New policy configurations Understanding of dynamic changes Visions building on diversity of views Risks, opportunities, system capabilities FORESIGHT New ideas Policy options, recommendations Pros & cons of decision choices

4. Foresight design – benefits Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future Insights About the future Insights About the future Relations With respect to future Relations With respect to future Attitudes Towards the future Attitudes Towards the future produces changes Networks Linkages Common ground Shared perspectives Joint visions Networks Linkages Common ground Shared perspectives Joint visions Long term thinking Awareness of challenges Foresight & learning culture Long term thinking Awareness of challenges Foresight & learning culture Dynamics of change New perspectives Future risks & opportunities Strategic options System capabilities Stakeholders views Dynamics of change New perspectives Future risks & opportunities Strategic options System capabilities Stakeholders views Being better prepared for the future

5. Foresight design – impacts Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future Insights About the future Insights About the future Relations With respect to future Relations With respect to future Attitudes Towards the future Attitudes Towards the future produces changes Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and strategies Changes in society for better policy implementation Changes in policy process for better decision making 1 Informing policy making – decisions taken by key actors in the commissioning body are more aware of longer-term developments and how these are liable to interact with current policy decisions 2 Building networks – bringing together people from different settings involved with shaping the future of a particular topic to collectively understand the challenges and opportunities that they are liable to confront, and the strategies and objectives that others might pursue 3 Developing capabilities & foresight culture – enabling people with a variety of backgrounds to define and embark upon their own foresight activities and to create their own foresight networks 4 Devising strategic visions – thus creating a shared sense of commitment to these visions among foresight participants, and an agreed direction to follow

6. Foresight design – types of dialogue Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Each type of dialogue calls for:  specific objectives (guiding questions)  specific participants in the dialogue (type and level of participation)  specific methods structuring the debate  Need to tailor approach to context, objectives and intended impacts in each phase Diagnosis Understanding where we are… Prognosis ‘Foresighting’ what could happen… Prescription Debating what we would like to happen… Deciding what should be done… Structured stakeholder dialogue

7. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development IMS 2020 objectives  Objective: identify relevant research topics and supporting actions to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation  Sustainable manufacturing, products and services  Energy efficient manufacturing  Key technologies  Standardisation  Innovation, competence development and education  Expected results  Creation of five roadmaps showing milestones of innovation activities (R&D, management and policy actions) to attain a desired vision

8. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development IMS 2020 impacts  Intended impacts  Inform policy making (strategic intelligence) through the development of strategic visions that shall foster changes in the policy process (further shaping of FP7, design of follow-up FP and shaping of joint calls in the IMS region)  Build new collaborative networks in the IMS region  Develop foresight capabilities both within the consortia and the EU Commission

9. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development IMS 2020 design Diagnosis Understanding where we are… Prognosis ‘Foresighting’ what could happen… Prescription Debating what we would like to happen Deciding what should be done … Understanding:  What are the main drivers and variables relevant for IMS?  What has already been developed looking at the future of manufacturing, and how does it relate to the current work?  Experts in and outside the region, partners  Desk research and interviews with firms Exploring:  What do key stakeholders believe is key to achieve IMS by 2020?  How world manufacturing can evolve in the future and what would be the RI implications for the IMS region?  Industry and research  Online survey, workshops and interviews with firms’ stakeholders plus scenario workshops and group work Debating and deciding:  How should the region position itself depending on how world manufacturing might evolve?  How to attain desired vision being adaptive to change?  What are the RI implications for each KAT in achieving the defined IMS vision?  Industry, research and policy  Vision building and roadmap workshops  Wiki platform

10. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development IMS 2020 plan and process

11. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development IMS 2020 scenarios Desirability and likelihood of each scenario feature to define the IMS vision 2020

12. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development IMS 2020 roadmaps

13. Principles & lessons learned [1]  Examine contextual systemic properties to identify key objectives and stakeholders, and scope the exercise: mapping, partner Skype calls, firms’ workshops and interviews Combination of open and collective with close and expert-driven stages enabled partners and collaborators to share a common understanding of the system under analysis and ways in which it can evolve, thus positioning objectives, impacts & design  Prepare to align strategic objectives with operational design and management aspects across the exercise to accommodate diverse stakeholder expectations: meetings Framework used to shape exercise design and scope with partners and the client  Define alternative ways to bring about diversity and different viewpoints by creating spaces to build mutual understanding and elaborate joint agendas: meetings, workshops and online tools (video/teleconferences, wiki, Groove) Framework for shaping initial debate enabled online tools and other methods used for building such spaces to be an integral part of the design and was critical for efficient and participatory management of the overall exercise Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process

14. Principles & lessons learned [2]  Ensure multiple communication channels to enable knowledge to flow, interactions to take place and workable agreements to be achieved: online video/teleconferences, face-to-face meetings, workshops, interviews, summer schools, wiki and Groove Weekly Skype calls critical to take stock of performed activities and define who to take action based on a common understanding of what had to be done and the direction to follow. Meetings dedicated to critical steps such as scenario, vision and roadmap work, which created sufficient basis for consensus & refinements in dedicated online spaces  Build upon both formal and informal networks to combine existing knowledge in novel ways, allow creativity to take place and embed the exercise within its system: Kick-off meeting Initial framework enabled the inclusion of methods best able to address both formal and informal networks (interviews and mutual learning workshops), and combination of open/collective and closed/expert-driven stages allowed creativity and new knowledge Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process

15. Principles & lessons learned [3]  Solicit ideas about future innovations aligned with the systemic and action-oriented nature of innovation processes beyond less focused future-oriented statements: first online survey (261 worldwide experts outlined innovation ideas linked to KATs and to social, political, industrial, technological and other required changes) Need for internal debate on nature of innovations and ways to solicit creative future ideas to achieve common understanding and consensus on questionnaire (meetings and Skype calls)  Manage diversity and interactions as well as communication and behavioral aspects in a way clear to all and aligned to strategic and operational decisions: meetings, Skype Initial framework used to set up stakeholders (diversity) to be involved across the project. However, partners interactions required careful management by returning to previous discussions, clarifying decisions already taken, and showing how elements fit together within the bigger picture to attain intended results and impacts Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process

16. Principles & lessons learned [4]  Ensure expectations are managed in line with objectives and intended results: scenario and vision building were the most critical stages Partners were not acquainted with foresight and alternative ways of developing scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps. Need for background explanation and to shape exercise in a way partners would feel involved to enable ownership of results. Flexibility allowed first scenario WS to be downscaled to the joint selection of variables for scenario framework and to select snapshots to be developed. These were developed by 4 groups involving all partners, all supported by IPTS through online tools. Once ready, scenarios were shared among partners and collaborators for refinements and to ensure international perspective. Second WS used to develop common vision with partners rotating in chairing and steering discussions with the JRC-IPTS facilitation. This approach fostered participation, motivation and hence ownership of results Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process

17. Principles & lessons learned [5]  Strive to design and reach impacts which are adaptive both in terms of process and results: framework used in kick-off discussion enabled to identify alternatives Combination of open and collective with closed and expert-driven parallel stages enabled necessary flexibility across operational processes (scenario/vision). Results were adapted for use by the EU Commission (FP7 and following programme) but devised in a way to be used by research (conferences) and industry (involved across the exercise)  Shape a common path to follow outlining resources which should be developed and mobilized both individually and collectively: roadmaps towards a shared vision Roadmaps show timeframe of needs for RI to be undertaken in collaboration as well as resources and actions to be mobilised by the Commission between 2011 and 2020 to enable the vision to be realised and thus EU manufacturing systems to flourish sustainably. A natural follow up would be to indentify what IMS regions should do both individually and jointly, as well as for further research on participatory management of foresight processes through online tools which are integrated in the project’s design Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process

18. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development Thank you! cristiano.cagnin@ec.europa.eu The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011