1. Roadmaps for Future Operational Space Weather Services ESWW9 Session 1 05 Nov 2012, Brussels Gareth LAWRENCE, RHEA System SA

2. Main contributors to Roadmaps G. Lawrence, J. Watermann, O. Valdes, L. Febo (RHEA System SA) E. DeDonder, M. Kruglanski (BIRA) E. Robbrecht, D. Berghmans, E, d’Huys, L. Bettarini, A Devos (ROB) M. Danielides (DLR) with supporting input from D. Heynderickx (DHC), T. Hansen (TGO)

3. ESA-SSA SN-I: Space Weather Precursor Services Two clearly separated paths: Roadmap activities – Objective: Set the way forward for the European Space Weather services by determining a clear set of service requirements which will be addressed in future activities Deployment activities – Objective: Create a first iteration of an operational and consolidated data centre dedicated to Space Weather services

4. Project Industrial Group

5. Project Structure Task 1: Review of assets and service definition – Led by Royal Observatory of Belgium Task 2: SWE Services Requirements definition – Led by RHEA System T1 + T2 = ROADMAPS Task 3: Deployment of the initial set of SWE precursor services – Led by Spacebel Task 4: Initial operation of the services – Led by Belgian Institute of Space Aeronomy Task 5: Assessment of the service concepts and user feedback – Led by Royal Observatory of Belgium

6. Project Work Logic ROADMAPS

7. Asset Review – 400+ assets from around the world were registered in the Asset Database (plus ~160 Experts) – Asset Database officially closed in June 2012 but still available for reference to SSA programme – Assets comprehensively reviewed and categorised by Expert Service Centres – ESA-proposed services were then categorised based on the maturity of the assets used to provide them: 21 services are suitable for operation (CAT-1) 10 services require some effort to make them operations ready (CAT-2) 6 services require substantial effort to make them operations ready (CAT-3)

8. Asset Review: TN-1 – Main report of 306 pages CRD review Asset summaries and general statistics Service reviews and asset allocation matrices – Annexes totalling >3500 pages! Full detailed asset reviews including questionnaires to asset owners Full service matrices covering all CRD requirements Requirement traceability per service etc

9. Asset Review: TN-1 particle

10. Asset Review: TN-1 sensor on spacecraft

11. Asset Review: TN-1

12. Service Roadmaps & Requirements Roadmaps & Requirements are key and complementary inputs to Service Definition in the future system Roadmaps: subjective expert opinion of how the SN-I Consortium would recommend the services be formulated to meet CRD specifications Requirements: objective guide to assist a system engineer in implementing such a Service

13. Service Roadmaps: Objectives Roadmaps represent for each SWE Service an Expert Concept of how it could be realised Assets selected on basis of Asset Owner input and Expert Review with traceability to Asset DB and TN-1 (Task 1) Assets selected on technical merit only Bottom-up approach adopted – Priority given to mature assets currently providing a service – Particular requirements then met with selected Assets, with development if needed

14. Service Roadmaps: Layout Overview and Summary from input documents (SOW, CRD, TN-1) Service Requirements Mature Asset Subset Identification of Appropriate CAT-1 assets for Redeployment or Federation – Evaluation of the Service provision offered by the CAT-1 assets Identification of Potential non CAT-1 assets for Federation – Evaluation of enhanced Service provision offered via additional non CAT-1 assets CRD Requirements fulfilled Analysis of gaps preventing the provision of a full service Development Roadmap towards the provision of a full service Deployment Roadmap Critical Items

15. Service Roadmaps: Asset Subsets All Assets in SN-I already assigned to services Initial assignment often nominal – all Assets are assigned to at least one Service where the initial review felt it could contribute to fulfilling CRD specification Roadmaps aim to identify a functional subset of Assets per Service – Priority given to mature assets currently providing a service – Minimal set of mature assets considered initially – Reviewed to ensure compliance with CRD – Particular requirements then met with selected Assets, with development if needed Asset Subset and Priority Subset identified per service -Priority Subset: ~50 Assets -Asset Subset: ~150 Assets -(TN-1: total 400+ Assets) Majority of these Assets exist outside of ESA

16. Service Roadmaps: Challenges TN-1 represented a fully inclusive approach to Asset allocation SSR originally exclusive – a minimal set of Assets to provide Service and fulfil all Requirements Final Roadmaps, following review process, are roughly midway between the two Makes for a larger set of Assets for the future system than anticipated, eg in proposal

17. Service Roadmaps: Challenges TN-1 represented a fully inclusive approach to Asset allocation SSR originally exclusive – a minimal set of Assets to provide Service and fulfil all Requirements Final Roadmaps, following review process, are roughly midway between the two Makes for a larger set of Assets for the future

18. Roadmap Activities: Output Development Roadmaps for the 37x SWE Services 8x Roadmap documents, 1 per User Domain ~800 pages total Individual Domain roadmaps vary according to: – number of services – number of requirements – number of assets – number of gaps – development steps needed – critical items identified – etc

19. Roadmap Activities: Output Software Requirements Specifications, for the 37x SWE Services Infrastructure Requirements – SWE Service Coordination Centre Reqs – Backup Data Centre Reqs – SWE Service Portal Reqs – SWE Service Software Reqs (low level) Complementary to Roadmaps, providing the ‘how to’ system-level context for the ‘with what’ of the Roadmaps

20. Results of the Roadmapping activities within SN-I Comprehensive analysis of the existing European assets to provide Space Weather services Customer Requirements arranged per Service Strategic Roadmaps for Service development in eight distinct User Domains Identification of Key Assets per User Domain for full service development Subsets of Priority Assets per Service and Domain Analysis of current Gaps in service provision, and proposed development plans

21. Use of the Roadmaps in future SWE activities ~50 highest priority Assets proposed for use Further ~100 Assets proposed to ensure full compliance These ~150 Assets are spread throughout the member states, and even beyond Selected Assets indicative of specific research interests and expertise with the member states Many based in countries not presently subscribed to the SSA programme Majority not owned by ESA Reflects importance of SSA-SWE segment for all stakeholders: Agency, Industry, Institution, End Users, etc