1. 1 Redesign of the chain of economic statistics: Arnout van Delden Frank Aelen Statistics Netherlands STS statistics as an example

2. 2 Outline –Context –Redesign of Short Term Statistics Starting points Design Results so far –Improvements longer run

3. 3 Context (1) Challenges to Statistics Netherlands –Improve quality of statistics –Reduce administrative burden –Reduce costs: staff and IT

4. 4 Context (2) HEcS: redesign chain of economic statistics –Increased use of administrative data –More automated processes –Top-down approach –Chain management –Architecture: uniformity of processes

5. 5 Starting points STS (1) Background –Growth rates of monthly and quarterly turnover –Different branches –Three releases: s+30, s+60, s+120 –Yearly 374 000 forms –Yearly 274 000 forms for small and medium-sized units (SMB, < 50 employees per enterprise ) Redesign: use VAT data for SMB

6. 6 Requirements 1.Coherence monthly, quarterly and yearly turnover 2.Difference between releases of monthly turnover: at most 1.5%point no structural bias 3.Output on time Starting points STS (2)

7. 7 Starting points STS (3) Issues: 1.Monthly, quarterly and yearly reporters of VAT 2.Fiscal unit n:m relationship with enterprise 3.First release s+30, start process VAT-data s+23 4.Definition of VAT turnover <> statistical definition 5.Detection of erroneous values Specific units available to estimate growth rate of monthly turnover (issue 1– 3)

8. 8 Design (1): estimator Yearly growth rate (G) of monthly turnover (O): S = stayers, B = births, MI = immigrants Motivation Yearly growth rates more alike than levels: - Monthly versus quarterly and yearly reporters (issue 1) - Linked units versus non-linked units (issue 2) - Early versus late reporters (issue 3) - VAT-definition versus statistical definition (issue 4)

9. 9 Design (2): processing stages Comply with business architecture Value chain: ─each process add value to the data ─generic structure Steady states: ─well defined state of processing ─quality indicators ─re-use of data

10. 10

11. 11 Results so far Requirement (1) Coherence –Monthly, quarterly and yearly turnover consistent –Yearly turnover VAT for both STS & SBS (in future) Requirement (2) Difference between releases –Difference still > 1.5 %point –Editing should be improved –Population dynamics Requirement (3) Publish on time –Yes: but processing time for editing is short

12. 12 Challenges –Improve linkage between fiscal and statistical units –Improve editing (issue 5) –Good relationship with tax office –Chain management

13. 13 Questions?