1. Koninklijk Nederlands Instituut voor Zeeonderzoek WP 5: Creation of gridded abundance data products Peter.Herman@nioz.nl

2. Objectives  Implement DIVA methodology to produce statistically optimized gridded map layers.  Make gridded maps of 3 species per group in appropriate time window  Estimate the accuracy of the gridding procedure by comparison with validation data.  Produce indications of the precision of the result based on the distribution of the basic data  Produce spatial maps (data products) relevant for MSFD Descriptor 2 (non-indigenous species).  Produce spatial maps of quality indicators for MSFD, if available and feasible

3. Activities. I. Implement DIVA  Ulg will make DIVA implementation available  Use INSPIRE and EEA grid convention (100m, 1km, 10km, 100km)  Datasets:  Available: Calanus, benthos North Sea, mammals N.Sea, N. Atlantic, Bay of Biscay  Extend to other sets in other areas dependent on availability

4. Activities. II. Incorporate environmental co- variables  Benthos: grain size, bedforms, depth; Pelagos: water column chemistry, currents  Datasets:  Co-variables: benthic environment (grainsize, maps); pelagic??  Presences: mammal observations. Presence/absence: benthic datasets N Sea; Calanus

5. Activities. III. Convert presence-only into presence/pseudoabsence datasets.  Develop algorithm based on knowledge of sampling programme within projects/campaigns (based on EMODNET I)  Check methodology with presence/absence datasets  Datasets:  Benthos Oosterschelde: full estimation of percentile distributions  Benthos N.Sea; Calanus: presence/absence  Apply to mammals, fish,..

6. Activities. IV. Estimate accuracy and precision of gridding  Methodological development within DIVA. State of affairs?  Use to define minimal data requirements for gridding  Test dataset: benthos Oosterschelde  Apply to  Extensive datasets allowing estimation of sampling variability  Sparse datasets

7. Activities. V. Make invasion movies  Test dataset: Mnemiopsis Black Sea  Determine minimum time step for reliable gridding  Make sequential maps illustrating invasion  Apply to other invasions. Which?

8. Activities. VI. Produce gridded maps of everything available  Guided by MSFD needs  Check on quality / statistical distribution of indicators  Based on data available within different EMODNET branches

9. Work programme  Workshop I. Design general setup. Determine minimum required data distribution. Define data format for abundance data and environmental cofactors (all partners).  Implementation of DIVA methodology (ULg, NIOZ, VLIZ)  Inventory of availability of environmental data; setup of data flow model (NIOZ)  Workshop II. Preparation of biological data for production of gridded data products (all partners)  Implementation of suitable indicators for the production of maps (all partners, EU, lead NIOZ)  Production of data products (lead ULg)  Feedback and validation of the data products by data providers (all partners, lead VLIZ)

11. Playground dataset: Oosterschelde/Westerschelde benthos  Thousands of samples per system over 10 years  Non-linear multi-quantile regressions to estimate probability distributions as function of environmental variables  Univariate case:

12. Univariate: estimate abundance quantiles from sediment grain size (d50) abundance D50 sediment

13. Comparison Oosterschelde-Westerschelde

14. Multivariate: currents / depth 0.975 quantile as function of environment Similar graphs for other quantiles

15. Validated Reconstructions Habitat suitability

16. High-resolution sampling from distributions