1. Land Management Unit Towards assessment and mitigation of weather-driven natural risks in Europe Carlo Lavalle European Commission DG Joint Research Centre Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management Unit e-mail: carlo.lavalle@jrc.it web : http://natural-hazards.jrc.it, http://moland.jrc.it

2. Land Management Unit Outline The Institutional Context Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk analysis for the EU –Flood, drougth, forest-fire and heat wave Approaches for forecasting and mitigation of natural hazards Brief outlook of next steps

3. Land Management Unit Natural Hazards: the institutional context Within the European Commission, the JRC provides scientific and technical advice/support for policies related to: –“Flood risk management, flood prevention, protection and mitigation” [COM(2004) 472] –“Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change” [COM(2005) 35 final] –Monitoring of forests and environmental interactions in the Community (Forest Focus), regulation No 2152/2003 –6 th Environmental Action Plan –The definition process of the Strategic Guidelines for the Programming period 2007-2013

4. Land Management Unit Some definitions Risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability Hazard: the threatening natural event including its probability/magnitude of occurrence; Exposure: the values/humans that are present at the location involved; Vulnerability (or Sensitivity): the lack (or loose) of resistance to damaging/destructive forces; it is a function of adaptative capacity Risk: it is the consequence of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Note : exposure and vulnerability are hazard-specific.

5. Land Management Unit Risk assessment for Natural Hazards The Approach Exposure Population Infrastructure Settlements Ecological assets …. Vulnerability GDP/ capita Planning regulations Protection measures Warning systems Insurance mechanism Access to facilities … Hazard Hazard degree Flood Drought Forest Fires Heatwaves Risk Methods Compensatory (WLS) Non-compensatory

6. Land Management Unit The Quantification of Hazards Flood –Maps produced by hydrological modelling (LISFLOOD) and validated with actual data (when/where available) –LISFLOOD ingests data from meteo forecast and/or climate scenarios and is the basis of the European Flood Alert System Drought –Maps produced by hydrological modelling (LISFLOOD) and based on a quasi-climatogical data analysis Forest Fire –Data from Member States (the EU Forest Fire Data Base, built upon the Common Core Database) + Model (European Forest Fire Information System) + Observed fires (remote sensing) Heat wave –Meteorological and climatological data

7. Land Management Unit The making of flood risk map ++ = => hazardexposurevulnerability Risk (grid)Risk (NUTS-3) Ref.: Barredo, et al. (2005). European flood risk mapping. S.P.I.05.151.EN, European Commission

8. Land Management Unit Potential Drought Hazard Maps Soil Water Stress Maps LISFLOOD model run on 44 years (1957/2002) of ECMWF ERA40 meteorological data A ‘quasi-climatological’ analysis Daily maps of the forecasted soil moisture development in Europe (seven days trend) available on line

9. Land Management Unit Fire data used (Years until 2004) Portugal (10) Spain (10) France (10) Italy (10) Greece (10) Germany (6) Cyprus (5) Latvia (1) Czech R. (1) Slovakia (1) Coming soon: Great Britain Austria Sweden Poland Romania Bulgaria Fire Frequency -> Fire density IN PROGRESS Ref.: Forest Fire Experts Meeting, Ispra, 10 November 2005 Forest Fire Hazard Maps

10. Land Management Unit Forest Burned Area -> Burned Forest Fraction Burned Forest From EU fire database Forest Land From CORINE 2000 IN PROGRESS Ref.: Forest Fire Experts Meeting, Ispra, 10 November 2005 Forest Fire Hazard Maps

11. Land Management Unit Risk Indicator: Vulnerable Population Exposed to Heatwave Heatwave Extent Vulnerable Population Exposure No. of people over 65 years exposed to HUMIDEX exceeding 35 during June, July and August 2003 Population Number Population Exposed Vulnerable Population Group + +

12. Land Management Unit The aim of hazard mitigation (adaptation): Reduce the risk Hazard p =1 (100yr) VulnerabilityRisk + = Adaptation Risk Vulnerability Hazard + Low vulnerability Low risk = Adaptation Vulnerability p =1 (100yr)

13. Land Management Unit STRUCTURAL MEASURES Extensive: –Reshaping of land surface –Protection from erosion –Forest practices –Urban and construction works Intensive: –Levees, dikes, floodwalls –Fire-breakers –Dams and reservoirs –Flood-ways and diversion works –Polders, fills, Drainage works –Green planning Flood / Fire / Heat Defence –Forecasting; Warning; Alert –Flood/Fire/Heat -proofing building –Evacuation & Relocation Legislation & Regulation –Zoning, Coding –Water and power mgnt plans –Health and education services Insurance –Governmental, Private, Mixed NON-STRUCTURAL MEASURES Examples of adaptation measures

14. Land Management Unit >10 years5 years1-2 years3-30 daysFew hours Alert Early Warning Forecast Regulatory plans Spatial Planning Forest Management Land Management Integrated land management tools EFFIS EFAS EDAS MOLAND LISFLOOD EFICS EFAS=European Flood Alert System EDAS=European Drought Alert System EFICS=European Forest Inform. and Comm. System EFFIS=European Forest Fire Information System MOLAND=Monitoring Land Use Dynamics LISFLOOD=Grid-based catchment model Component of EU Forest Focus Territorial Integration

15. Land Management Unit Scenario a Scenario b Example of scenarios-building: Regional development for 2020 and simulated flood scenarios in FVG (I) Compact development Scattered development Increase of vulnerability following uncontrolled development 2000 2020 Urban settlement in flood-prone areas

16. Land Management Unit Towards an Integrated Scenario Modeling 2020 Information MOLAND LISFLOOD River/flow network Soil Moisture Snow cover Channel discharge Frost index DEM … Land use Transport network Zoning maps Socio-eco trends Land demand Protection measures … EFFIS VEGETATION SOIL PARAMETERS GROUND SURVEY FWI FIRE Potential.. Scenario Analysis

17. Land Management Unit Outlooks Refinement of EU 25+ maps of risk: –More detailed quantification of impacts (pre- and post-event) –Improved resolution –Definition and analysis of macro-regions Proper inclusion of adaptation activities in the scenario modeling; –Products of EU Flood GIS Project (EP funded) Further development of downscaling methods for Climate Change Models (from GCM to ‘dedicated’ RCM); –quantitative assessment of changes in hydrological extremes –quantitative assessment of changes in forest species distribution and forest fire risk –Improve understanding and prediction of extreme weather events Further development of climate change/territorial development –Feed back interactions in Moland –Completion of scenarios on pilot areas (for flood/fire/drought based on a multi- scale approach)

18. Land Management Unit Collaboration with INTERREG Projects Subjects for joint work: Data exchange Transfer of methods and tools Exchange of good practices Pilot experiments Links with projects (ongoing or in preparation) Euregio Meuse-Rhine ESPACE SEAREG ELLA ODERREGIO …

19. Land Management Unit THANK YOU!