1. 1 Climate-Based Seed Transfer Climate-Based Seed Transfer Greg O’Neill and Nicholas Ukrainetz Research Branch, BC Ministry of Forests and Range Kalamalka Forestry Centre, Vernon BC October 2008

2. 2 Overview Rationale Delineation methods Seed transfer systems Assisted migration

3. 3 Rationale The genecology revolution (Climate models, GIS, new statistical methods) allows for improvements to seed transfer systems.

4. 4 69 120 km 2

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7. 7 108 687 km 2

8. 8 Rationale –The genecology revolution (Climate models, GIS, new statistical methods) allows for improvements to seed transfer systems. –Assisted migration requires a climate-based seed transfer system.

9. 9 Overview Rationale Delineation methods Seed transfer systems Assisted migration

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12. 12 Vancouver

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14. 14 Mean Annual Temp Mean Annual Precip Mean Annual Temp Degree Days > 5 °C Mean Cold Month Temp Continentality Mean Annual Precip Mean Summer Precip Annual Drought Index Summer Drought Index PC1 PC2 Vancouver

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16. 16 Deployability Evaluation Climatic transfer distance

17. 17 Climatic transfer distance

18. 18 Deployability

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23. 23 Overview Rationale Delineation methods Seed transfer systems Assisted migration

24. 24 Seed Transfer Systems Fixed Floating (focal point) ClimateGeog. Climate Ecol. Geog. Climate Ecol. Progressive 56181624324048 -2024681012 1234567 -20246810 12 -2024681012 °C°C Zone

25. 25 Overview Rationale Delineation methods Seed transfer systems Assisted migration

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31. 31 6 MAT (°C) 02 -2 48 10

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33. 33 Progressive Seed Zones - 2 climate variables 31623.50 22393.35 15853.20 11223.05 MAP (mm)logMAP 7942.90 5622.75 3982.60 2822.45 - 02 4 6 MAT (°C)

34. 34 BGC variants

35. 35 Species SPZ SPU Class A/B/B+ BEC zone Latitude Longitude Elevation Overlap zones QCI (Ss, Hw) > 1100 m (Yc) North of 56 (Pli) North of 52 and EK SPZ (Fdi) Species BEC variant Latitude Seed transfer variables

36. 36 Conclusions regarding CBST –Climate transfer distance halved –Deployability doubled –Low cost –Rapid implementation –Progressive ST system combines merits of fixed and focal ST –Assisted migration easily accommodated –Operationally simple Next –BEC vs climate-based ST system –Number of zones to optimize adaptation vs deployability

37. 37 Acknowledgements Discussions –Sally Aitken –Andreas Hamann –Jerry Rehfeldt –Tongli Wang –Jack Woods –Alvin Yanchuk Data –Doug Ashbee –Andreas Hamann –Barry Jaquish Photo: Nick Wheeler Analysis –Frank van Thienen