1. Fire Weather 2015 NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard DAVID GOMBERG Fire Weather Program Manager ERIC BOLDT Warning Coordination Meteorologist Springs Fire – May 2013 (Photo by Scott Sukup, NWS)

2. Topics Today Topics Today Drought and Fuels Drought and Fuels Seasonal Outlook Seasonal Outlook Products/Services Products/Services Red Flag Warnings Red Flag Warnings Coordination Calls Coordination Calls Debris Flows Debris Flows Decision Support Decision Support Station Fire – Los Angeles, CA August 29, 2009 Photo by Jonathan Alcorn

3. NWS Contact Info Fire Weather Operations Desk Fire Weather Operations Desk  (805) 988-6626 Mark Jackson – Meteorologist in Charge Mark Jackson – Meteorologist in Charge  (805)988-6617 Eric Boldt – Warning Coordination Meteorologist Eric Boldt – Warning Coordination Meteorologist  (805) 988-6623 Rich Thompson – IMET or Rich Thompson – IMET or Dave Gomberg – Fire Wx Program Manager Dave Gomberg – Fire Wx Program Manager  (805) 988-6626 Website Website  weather.gov/losangeles

4. DroughtandFuels

5. Water Year 2014-2015 Precipitation

6. Jan-June 2015 Precipitation Percent of Normal

7. Drought Monitor Drought Monitor http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ June 16 2015 June 17 2014

8. 2015 Live Fuel Moisture Santa Monica Mountains Average 2015 2014 Critical

9. WeatherOutlook

10. Precipitation Outlook July-August-September

11. Temperature Outlook July-August-September

12. GACC SEASONAL OUTLOOK July-September 2015 (Issued June 1 st ) Summary: Above normal Large Fire Potential Below Normal Summertime “Monsoonal” Precipitation Above Normal Temperatures High Amount of Bug Killed Trees and Diseased Forest Adds to Large Fire Potential in the Mountains

13. EL NINO OUTLOOK EL NINO OUTLOOK El Nino Advisory Weak to Moderate Strong

14. NWS Products and Services Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) Spot Forecasts Spot Forecasts NFDRS Trend Forecast NFDRS Trend Forecast Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches IMET Program IMET Program

16. Fire Weather Webpage Spot Forecasts FWF/RFW ROMAN Red Flag Monitor Activity Planner

17. Fire Weather Planning Forecast CAZ254-142230- LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS-.TODAY SKY/WEATHER…...MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMP..............80 to 85. 24 HR TREND...UP 2 TO 4. MIN HUMIDITY........20 TO 25 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND...DOWN 10. WIND.......................SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH. MARINE LAYER......2000 FEET. LAL..........................1 CWR (>.10”)............0

18. Spot Forecasts Spot forecasts available Spot forecasts available –Wildfire –Prescribed burns –Hazmat/Search and Rescue –Event Planning Include working contact number and agency Include working contact number and agency Include observations and time you need spot Include observations and time you need spot Can reach NWS forecaster 24/7 Can reach NWS forecaster 24/7 –(805) 988-6626

19. Important to include a working phone number!

20. May 17, 2011 2011 Fire Weather Update Spot Forecast feedback encouraged! Overall value of spot (including timeliness) Any fire behavior notes of interest

21. Potential Critical Fire Weather Patterns (3-5 Day Period) Mentioned in following products Mentioned in following products  FWF Discussion  Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)  Special Weather Statement (SPS)  Decision Support Emails and Weather Stories

22. Watches and Warnings Watches and Warnings issued for critical fire weather patterns conducive to extreme fire danger and/or fire behavior Watches and Warnings issued for critical fire weather patterns conducive to extreme fire danger and/or fire behavior –Must have sufficiently dry fuels Fire Weather Watch Alerts agencies of potential red flag conditions Confidence is high but not certain Fire Weather Watch Alerts agencies of potential red flag conditions Confidence is high but not certain Red Flag Warning Red flag conditions either imminent or are occurring Red Flag Warning Red flag conditions either imminent or are occurring 24 – 96 hours prior to expected event 0 – 48 hours prior to event Jonathan Alcorn

23. Red Flag Criteria NWS Oxnard The less than 10% RH requires a minimum wind speed of 15 mph

24. GACC Conference Calls GACC Conference Calls All Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches coordinated with GACC and local fire agencies All Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches coordinated with GACC and local fire agencies Importance of 830 am GACC Conference Call Importance of 830 am GACC Conference Call  Event driven during critical fire weather patterns  Multi-agency participation Riverside GACC leads call Riverside GACC leads call NWS offices (including IMETS during ongoing fires) NWS offices (including IMETS during ongoing fires) Fire Agencies Fire Agencies  Overview of weather, fuels, and potential fire behavior  Decision making NOAA

25. NWS Oxnard Focused Conference Calls In addition to 830 am GACC Call, introduced local conference calls this past year In addition to 830 am GACC Call, introduced local conference calls this past year –Additional details/decision making can be discussed –More time for addressing local weather concerns and fielding questions –Typically held at 1 pm

27. Red Flag Monitor

28. IMET Program On-site support for the following: On-site support for the following: – Wildfires – Hazmat – Debris Flows – Disaster Mitigation (i.e. earthquake, hurricane, tornado) tornado) Provides detailed spot forecasts and briefings. Provides detailed spot forecasts and briefings. At NWS Oxnard, Rich Thompson is the IMET. At NWS Oxnard, Rich Thompson is the IMET. – Other forecasters can provide non-wildfire support IMET requests made through GACC IMET requests made through GACC

29. DebrisFlows

30. Station Fire Burn Area Feb 6, 2010

31. Debris Flow Project Introduced winter season of 2005/2006 Introduced winter season of 2005/2006 Focus is Flash Flooding and Debris Flows from recent burn areas Focus is Flash Flooding and Debris Flows from recent burn areas –Typically 2-years old or less –Fires 200 acres or greater as well as smaller fires with significant urban impact

32. Debris Flow Project USGS develops rainfall thresholds that can trigger debris flows USGS develops rainfall thresholds that can trigger debris flows NWS Oxnard uses thresholds as guidance for issuing Flash Flood products within burn areas NWS Oxnard uses thresholds as guidance for issuing Flash Flood products within burn areas Forecasters available by phone 24/7 Forecasters available by phone 24/7 –On-site support also available to assist incident command team

33. Interactive Burn Map

34. QPF Forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast –Predicted rainfall amounts for 24 hour time period at various points within each county –Forecast intervals are three hours for the first 12-hours and six hours for next 12-hours –Provides users with a description of  Rainfall intensities  Timing of storm system

35. QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 400 AM PST SAT JAN 08 2013 04-07 07-10 10-13 13-16 | 16-22 22-04 LOS ANGELESE COUNTY... WFKC1: WEST FORK HELIPORT (Mt Wilson) 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 | LGT LGT BDDC1: BIG DALTON DAM 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 | LGT LGT PCDC1: PACOIMA DAM 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 | LGT LGT SAUC1: SAUGUS 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 | LGT LGT CQT: LOS ANGELES DOWNTOWN (USC) 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 | LGT LGT MLUC1: BIG ROCK MESA 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 | LGT LGT LAC: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY.26-.50 FTHLS/MTNS.76-1.00 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 0400-0700 CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: YES Forecast hour Peak 1-hr rainfall rates

36. NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Weather.gov/losangeles Thank you! Questions? David Gomberg, NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard 805-988-6626

37. Record Low Sierra Snowpack

38. Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi) Produced by Southern California GACC Produced by Southern California GACC Computation based on fuels and weather Computation based on fuels and weather Aids NWS in communicating event severity Aids NWS in communicating event severity Contact Tom Rolinski for questions Contact Tom Rolinski for questions

39. Weather Activity Planner

41. 2013 California Precipitation ( Percentile Ranking )

42. 2014 California Precipitation (Percentile Ranking)

43. Eastern Pacific High Pressure Ridge Cause of Record Warmth In place last 2-3 years Similar pattern in 1976-77

44. NFDRS Zones

45. National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Trend Forecast Issued during peak fire season Issued during peak fire season Provides 24-hour Trend Forecast for the following Provides 24-hour Trend Forecast for the following  Temperature  RH  LAL  Wind  10-hour Fuel Moisture Trend for each weather element is zone averaged Trend for each weather element is zone averaged Burn Index computed from above parameters Burn Index computed from above parameters

47. 2014 California Temperature ( Percentile Ranking )

48. ROMAN Observations http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/roman/ Collective of weather observations grouped by zone Collective of weather observations grouped by zone