1. Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many x 10 3 others www.culturalcognition.net WTF?! The “ ‘According to climate scientists,’...” paradox

2. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 2389. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal- conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] Probability of answering agreeing

3. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 2389. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal- conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] Probability of answering agreeing

4. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] Probability of answering agreeing Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 2389. Logistic re “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7- point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. What? You don’t like my spikes? Well piss off, then!

5. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Probability of answering “true” Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

6. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Probability of answering “true” Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

7. Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Probability of answering “true” Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

8. Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Probability of answering “true” Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

9. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Probability of answering “true” Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

10. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican Probability of correct response Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

11. Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

12. Ideological symmetric climate illiteracy...

13. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

14. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

15. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

16. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

18. r = - 0.65, p < 0.01

22. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

23. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

24. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

25. The identity-knowledge confound... 1.What you “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are. 2.What you “know” about climate change doesn’t reflect what you know about it either; it expresses who you are, too!

26. 1994 2010

27. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Evolution

30. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] bars denote 0.95 CIs

31. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] bars denote 0.95 CIs

32. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] bars denote 0.95 CIs

33. “human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence 2.0 sample items

34. without prefix: “... ” “human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence 2.0 sample items

35. “human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] without prefix: “... ” with prefix: “According to climate scientists,...” Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence 2.0 sample items

36. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican Probability of correct response Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. without prefix

37. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican Probability of correct response without prefix Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal- conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

38. 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 left_right “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican Probability of correct response without prefix with prefix Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal- conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

39. Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 without prefix Probability of correct response Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal- conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

40. Very liberal Strong Democrat Liberal Democrat Moderate Independent Left_right “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Very Conservative Strong Republican Conservative Republican 0.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 1 -1.8011.8 without prefix with prefix Probability of correct response Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 1166. Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal- conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

41. “Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment OSI_1.0OSI_2.0

42. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right no prefix above avg left_right no prefix “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Probability of correct response below avg left_right, prefix above avg left_right prefix

43. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right no prefix above avg left_right no prefix Probability of correct response below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]

44. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right no prefix above avg left_right no prefix Probability of correct response below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix

45. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right no prefix Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix

46. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. above avg left_right without prefix Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right without prefix

47. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix

48. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right without prefix

49. Ideological symmetric climate illiteracy...

50. Prefix impact: how much more likely a partisan is to give the identity-congruent wrong answer when the “according climate scientists” prefix is removed:

53. OSI_1.0 science comprehension (OSI_1.0) # correct

54. Colored bars denote 0.95 CIs. Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican “System 2 motivated reasoning”

55. But according to climate scientists, are humans causing climate change? probability of agreeing

56. But according to climate scientists, are humans causing climate change? probability of agreeing

57. What you believe about scientific-consensus on climate change doesn’t reflect what you know;... probability of agreeing

58. What you believe about scientific-consensus on climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are... probability of agreeing

59. "believe in" AGW What you believe about scientific-consensus on climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are... probability of agreeing

60. "believe in" AGW What you believe about scientific-consensus on climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are... WTF? probability of agreeing

61. "believe in" AGW How can the same proposition—according to climate scientists, humans are causing global warming—both provoke expression of identity... probability of agreeing

62. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] How can the same proposition—according to climate scientists, humans are causing global warming—both provoke expression of identity and unconfound identity & knowledge?

63. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] How can the same proposition—“according to climate scientists, humans are causing global warming”—both provoke expression of identity and unconfound identity & knowledge? WTF?!

64. Two “solutions”: 1. 2. How can the same proposition—according to climate scientists, humans are causing global warming—both provoke expression of identity and unconfound identity & knowledge? WTF?!

65. Two “solutions”: 1. “Authority of science...” 2. How can the same proposition—according to climate scientists, humans are causing global warming—both provoke expression of identity and unconfound identity & knowledge? WTF?!

66. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix

67. "believe in" AGW What you believe about scientific-consensus on climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are...

68. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix

69. "believe in" AGW What you believe about scientific-consensus on climate change doesn’t reflect what you know; it expresses who you are...

70. The paradox: why does prefix—“according to climate scientists...”— abate polarization on facts if partisans are polarized on what “climate scientists” believe? Two “solutions”: 1. “Authority of science...” 2.

71. The paradox: why does prefix—“according to climate scientists...”— abate polarization on facts if partisans are polarized on what “climate scientists” believe? Two “solutions”: 1. “Authority of science...” 2. “Cognitive dualism”

72. Cognitive dualism

73. N = 1380: Miss., N.C., Tex., Wisc. change in crop mix more crop insurance farmers driven out of business 28% “believe climate change has been scientifically proven” Cognitive dualism: US farm country

74. Cognitive dualism: SE Florida... April 2014

75. Cognitive dualism: SE Florida... April 2014

76. Cognitive dualism: SE Florida... April 2014

77. Cognitive dualism: SE Florida...

78. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix

79. “... human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False] Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale. below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix

80. Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix “Most expert climate scientists agree human activity has caused the temperature of the earth to become warmer over the past few decades” [agree/disagree] Probability of perceiving Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 612. Nationally representative sample.” “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.80). Lowess regression. Left_right

81. Probability of correct response Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile) above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix Probability of correct response “... nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix above avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right without prefix below avg left_right, with prefix above avg left_right with prefix “Most expert climate scientists agree human activity has caused the temperature of the earth to become warmer over the past few decades” [agree/disagree] Probability of perceiving Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, 2016. N = 612. Nationally representative sample.” “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.80). Lowess regression. Left_right "believe in" AGW

82. “97% consensus” social marketing campaign

83. The paradox: why does prefix—“according to climate scientists...”— abate polarization on facts if partisans are polarized on what “climate scientists” believe? Two “solutions”: 1. “Authority of science...” 2. “Cognitive dualism” WTF?!

84. New data: shame & critical reasoning! www.culturalcognition.net