1. Positive Action Group 23 May 2016 The Isle of Man: population projection Paul Craine

3. Isle of Man Population Atlas Introduction 1 The Population Equation 2 Population Distribution 3 Sex and Age Distribution 4 Population Ageing 5 Immigration, Emigration, Policy and beyond 2016 6 Population Characteristics 7 Housing and Households Afterword

4. 1 Brief introduction to the IOM Population Atlas 2 Population ageing 3 An end to population growth? 4 Net emigration of young adults 5 Falling number of births 6 Population policy Positive Action Group 23 May 2016

5. 1 Brief introduction to the IOM Population Atlas 2 Population ageing 3 An end to population growth? 4 Net emigration of young adults 5 Falling number of births 6 Population policy Positive Action Group 23 May 2016

17. 1 Brief introduction to the IOM Population Atlas 2 Population ageing 3 An end to population growth? 4 Net emigration of young adults 5 Falling number of births 6 Population policy Positive Action Group 23 May 2016

20. 1951 population = 54,024 1951 Median age = 38 years 1951 Dependency ratio = 0.62

22. 1971 population = 53,228 1971 Median age = 41 years 1971 Dependency ratio = 0.85

24. 2001 population = 76,315 2001 Median age = 39 years 2001 Dependency ratio = 0.62

26. 2011 population = 84,497 2011 Median age = 41 years 2011 Dependency ratio = 0.64

28. 2021 population = 90,656 2021 Median age = 44 years 2021 Dependency ratio = 0.69

29. “The biggest threat to the social and economic future of the Isle of Man…(is) the demographic reality that our nation is growing older” (Chief Minister - October 2013)

30. 1 Brief introduction to the IOM Population Atlas 2 Population ageing 3 An end to population growth? 4 Net emigration of young adults 5 Falling number of births 6 Population policy Positive Action Group 23 May 2016

34. “The quarterly economic reports to the Council of Ministers are some of the most informative documents in the public domain. The headings… cover the general economy, manufacturing, financial services (etc)… but they do not routinely cover ‘population’. …indicators such as the number of people registered with a GP… could be used to produce quarterly population estimates…” (Isle of Man Population Atlas, April 2016, p.140)

35. Economic report to CoMin - May 2016

36. Isle of Man: resident population 1951- 2016

37. 1 Brief introduction to the IOM Population Atlas 2 Population ageing 3 An end to population growth? 4 Net emigration of young adults 5 Falling number of births 6 Population policy Positive Action Group 23 May 2016

41. 1 Brief introduction to the IOM Population Atlas 2 Population ageing 3 An end to population growth? 4 Net emigration of young adults 5 Falling number of births 6 Population policy Positive Action Group 23 May 2016

43. 1 Brief introduction to the IOM Population Atlas 2 Population ageing 3 An end to population growth? 4 Net emigration of young adults 5 Falling number of births 6 Population policy Positive Action Group 23 May 2016

45. Reducing dependency Ageing Population Working Group - end universal welfare benefits Growing workforce within population Staying economically active longer Growing workforce and population Tynwald debate April 2015 - opportunity lost Towards a population policy

46. 1 Improve population monitoring 2 Clarification of realistic policy (balanced growth - maximising benefits of elderly) 3 Alignment of policies that affect household migration decisions 4 Encouragement for young people to return. Reducing population vulnerabilities

47. Published April 2016 Available from : The Lexicon The Book Company Bridge Bookshop St Paul’s Bookshop Price: £15