1. EVALUATION OF SATELLITE-DERIVED HIGH RESOLUTION RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER EASTERN SÃO PAULO AND PARANÁ, BRAZIL Augusto J. Pereira Filho 1 Phillip Arkin 2 Phillip Arkin 2 Joe Turk 3 John E. Janowiak 4 Cesar Beneti 5 Leonardo Calvetti 5 Ricardo Hallak 1 Felipe Vemado 1 1 DAC/IAG, University of São Paulo, Brazil 2 ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, USA 3 NRL, Marine Meteorology Division, USA 4 Climate Prediction Center/NOAA, USA 5 SIMEPAR, Paraná, Brazil PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

2. São Paulo Paraná

3. Background PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

4. HOURLY ACCUMULATION 2003 and 2004 (mm) (Pereira Filho et al., 2006) PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

5. TIME OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL (mm) (UTC) 2003 and 2004 (Pereira Filho et al., 2006) PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

6. 3 rd INTERNATIONAL PRECIPITATION WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP 23-27 October 2006, Melbourne, Australia RADAR X SATELLITE Total Rainfall 1 = Ground Clutter Filtering (2 and 3) 4 = Grind Clutter Contamination 5 = Range Effect 7 = Signal Processing (Pereira Filho et al., 2002)

7. Program for the Evaluation of High Resolution Precipitation Products (PEHRPP) coordinated by ESSIC and NRL. Goal is to compare and to validate these high resolution datasets. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

8. Estimated Observed False alarms Hits Misses Observed yesno yeshits false alarms nomisses correct negatives Estimated Contingency Table (Elbert, 2003)

9. False alarm ratio Probability of detection Critical success index Bias score Correlation coefficient Root mean square error 2 1 )( 1 i N i i OE N RMSE   

10. SPWR RAINFALL ESTIMATES X CMORPH, TRMM, PERSIANN and NRL- BLENDED (m) São Paulo, Brazil. Workshop on the EHRPP Geneve, Switzerland, 03-05 December, 2007

11. SPWR DATASETS: 10/2005 TO 03/2006; SATELLITE PRECIPITATION DATA: 0.25 DEGREE X 3-HOUR; SYSTEM TYPES: COLD FRONT, RAIN BANDS, ORDINARY CONVECTION COLD FRONT, RAIN BANDS, ORDINARY CONVECTION, SQUALL LINES PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

12. EXAMPLES PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

13. COLD FRONT Workshop on the EHRPP Geneve, Switzerland, 03-05 December, 2007

14. RAIN BANDS PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

15. 3 rd INTERNATIONAL PRECIPITATION WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP 23-27 October 2006, Melbourne, Australia ORDINARY CONVECTION

16. 0,1 mm 0,2 mm 1,0 mm 4,0 mm OVERALL RESULTS All data sets available 10/05 to 03/06 PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

17. DISCUSSION (SP) Coordinate discrepancies;Coordinate discrepancies; Phase and amplitude errors;Phase and amplitude errors; All four methods yielded poor results;All four methods yielded poor results; Radar rainfall accumulation higher than satellite ones;Radar rainfall accumulation higher than satellite ones; Radar data with range effect and other problems;Radar data with range effect and other problems; Best performance for low rainfall accumulation: CMORPH;Best performance for low rainfall accumulation: CMORPH; Best performance for higher accumulation: PERSIANN;Best performance for higher accumulation: PERSIANN; Fewer data for PERSIANN;Fewer data for PERSIANN; All methods are limited;All methods are limited; Need for rain gauges and stream gauges verification.Need for rain gauges and stream gauges verification. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

18. PARANA STATE Satellite techniques: CMORPH (Joyce et. al., 2004), PERSIANN (Sorooshian et al., 2000), TRMM (Huffman et. al., 1997), NRLB (Turk et. al., 2003) and CST (Adler e Negri, 1998). Data 141 weather stations over Parana State Methodology 1) Observed and estimated rainfall @ 0.25° spatial resolution over 56°W – 46.75°W and 27°S-21.75°S for 1 day to a month accumulation. 2)Period: January 2003 – December 2005 3)Rain/non-rain threshold: 0.3mm/day and 20mm/month; 4)Statistics: average, variance, bias, POD FAR, ETS, MSE, correlation coefficient; 5)Hovmoller diagrams. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

19. Hovmöller Diagrams GAUGE CMORPH TRMM PERSIANN NRLB CST mm/month

20. Monthly Accumulation October 2005 May 2005 BIAS 0.99 1.00 POD 0.99 1.00 FAR 0.00 0.00 COR 0.67 0.62 RMSE 130.40 79.86 GAUGE AVE 245.42 245.42 SAT AVE 123.80 182.25 GAUGE VAR 59.71 59.71 SAT VAR 54.88 50.48 NRLB CST GAUGE NRLBCST TRMM mm/month BIAS 0.95 POD 0.95 FAR 0.00 COR 0.79 RMSE 104.02 GAUGE AVE 136.22 SAT AVE 52.98 GAUGE VAR 74.39 SAT VAR 23.85 TRMM Observed Estimated

21. Monthly Accumulations - Spatial BIAS (Jan/2003 - Dec/2005)

22. Daily Accumulation November 17th, 2003 May 12th, 2004 BIAS 1.05 POD 0.99 FAR 0.05 COR 0.64 RMSE 20.40 GAUGE AVE 32.05 SAT AVE 16.43 GAUGE VAR 17.41 SAT VAR 8.59 BIAS 0.99 POD 0.96 FAR 0.03 COR 0.75 RMSE 14.88 GAUGE AVE 25.76 SAT AVE 18.93 GAUGE VAR 19.30 SAT VAR 17.12 CMORPH TRMM Observed Estimated Observed Estimated

23. Discussion (PR) Hovmöller diagrams indicate good agreement between satellite-derived estimates and gauges, though amplitude differences are significant. Monthly satellite-derived accumulations better for January, May and October. Daily values highly variable. PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007

24. 3 rd INTERNATIONAL PRECIPITATION WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP 23-27 October 2006, Melbourne, Australia Polarimetric Data Sets

25. Mobile Weather Radar Doppler Dual X-band (MXPOL) Hydrometeorology Lab (LabHidro) – Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG), University of São Paulo.

26. MXPOL 4,5 o PPI at 2119 UTC on 26 April 2007. ZhZh VrVr W K dp  o hv

27. SPWR 3-km CAPPI 1-km x 1-km resolution at 1616 UTC on 22 May 2007. MXPOL at (23 o 33.4’S; 46 o 44.1’W). São Paulo City sounding (83779) at 1200 UTC on 22 May 2007.

28. MXPOL vertical profiles at 1616 UTC on 22 May 2007. Full clockwise antenna scan (6.0 o s -1 ) @ 90 o, pulse width = 0.2  s, PRF=1000 Hz and 256 samples,  z=35m. Vertical profile - Z h Vertical profile - W Vertical profile - V r

29. MXPOL vertical profiles at 1616 UTC on 22 May 2007. Full clockwise antenna scan (6.0 o s -1 ) @ 90 o, pulse width = 0.2  s, PRF=1000 Hz and 256 samples,  z=35m. Vertical profile - K dp Vertical profile - Z dr Vertical profile -  o hv Vertical profile -  dp

30. THE END Work supported by: FAPESP and CNPq (BRAZIL) FAPESP and CNPq (BRAZIL) NCAR and ESSIC (USA) NCAR and ESSIC (USA) WMO WMO PEHRPP Wokshop, Geneve, Switzerland 03-05 December, 2007