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Methodology Sample of 402 Interviews conducted between August 19-30, 2015 Screening qualifications included West Virginia residency, current voter registration,

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Presentation on theme: "Methodology Sample of 402 Interviews conducted between August 19-30, 2015 Screening qualifications included West Virginia residency, current voter registration,"— Presentation transcript:

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2 Methodology Sample of 402 Interviews conducted between August 19-30, 2015 Screening qualifications included West Virginia residency, current voter registration, and claimed likelihood to vote in the 2016 general election Multiple data collection methods have been used to conduct the Poll including random digit dialing (RDD), landline phone, cell phone, and opt-in Internet panel

3 Defining the Political Composition of Voters Steadfast Conservatives 19% 34% 17% 11% Likely Voters Business Conservatives Young Outsiders 11% 15% Socially conservative Conservative views on government, not social issues Pro-Wall Street, pro-immigrant

4 Likely Voters 11% Next Generation Left Faith and Family Left 12% 3% 9%12% Hard-Pressed Skeptics 21% 14% Solid Liberals Financially stressed and pessimistic Young, liberal on social issues, less so on social safety net Racially diverse and religious Liberal across-the-board

5 West Virginia Skews Significantly More Conservative Than the Nation as a Whole In West Virginia 34%11% 15% 12%11%3%14% 19% 17% 9%11%21%12% 11% The U.S as a whole Solid Liberal Faith & Family Left Next Gen Left Hard Pressed Skeptics Young Outsiders Business Conservative Steadfast Conservative

6 U.S. Heading in the Wrong Direction “All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?” Right Direction Wrong TrackMixed (vol.)Unsure 16%76%N/A8% 28%65%4%3%

7 Nearly half of West Virginians Prefer a Republican as the Next President Republican DemocratNot Sure ?

8 ApproveDisapprove Nearly Three-Fourths of West Virginians Disapprove Not Sure 2014 12% 2013 7% 2015 5%

9 The Potential for Republican Control of the West Virginia Legislature was Identified in August of 2014 41% 39% 20% 2014 Republican Democrat Not Sure 35% 42% 23% 2013 Republican Democrat Not Sure

10 The Trend Toward Republican Control of the West Virginia Legislature May Continue Republicans should control the next WV Legislature Democrats should control the next WV Legislature Not Sure ?

11 ApproveDisapprove Approval Rating Remains Below 50% Not Sure 2014 32% 2013 25% 2015 21%

12 ApproveDisapprove 2014 24% 2013 21% 2015 16% Not Sure Job Approval Continues to Improve, but Remains Below 50%

13 ApproveDisapprove Twice as Many Approve of Performance vs. Disapprove Not Sure 2014 25% 2013 26% 2015 21%

14 West Virginia Viewed as Heading in the Wrong Direction “All in all, do you think things in West Virginia are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?” Right Direction Wrong TrackUnsure State 28%56%16% Country 16%76%8%

15 In a Generic Ballot, West Virginians are Split on Which Party Should Control the Governor’s Office Republican DemocratNot Sure ?

16 Jim Justice is the Early Pick for the Democratic Nomination for Governor

17 Justice is also the Early Choice for Governor Over Republican Bill Cole

18 However, Cole Would Beat Jeff Kessler if the Election Were Held Today

19 THANK YOU

20 Methodology Statement Results of this edition of The West Virginia Poll® are based on interviews conducted between August 19-30, 2015 with a sample of 400 West Virginia residents age 18 and over. Multiple data collection methods have been used to conduct the Poll including random digit dialing (RDD), landline phone, cell phone, and opt-in Internet panel. Each data collection method has strengths and weakness. Respondents were screened and qualified to participate in the Poll. Screening qualifications included West Virginia residency, current voter registration, and claimed likelihood to vote in the 2016 general election. While it is not appropriate to apply a margin of error to the interviews completed online, statistical tests of significance were used between segments at the 95% confidence level. This method yields an estimated statistical error for each question asked and an overall statistical error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. The purpose of the West Virginia Poll is to provide a snapshot of opinion and timely voter views in the Mountain State. The media sponsor of The West Virginia Poll is MetroNews, the statewide radio network owned by West Virginia Radio Corporation. REPASS is responsible for questionnaire design, the respondent screening and selection process, data tabulation, statistical analysis, and reporting of results. Interviewing is conducted by the firm’s data collection partner, McMillion Research Services. All data collection is conducted from the firm’s Charleston, West Virginia data collection facilities for telephone, Internet, and mobile surveys. Both the REPASS and McMillion firms are members of the Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO). Data as reported has been statistically weighted based by estimates of voter participation by age, party affiliation, and gender. The West Virginia Poll is a non-partisan survey of public opinion owned and conducted by Repass. The West Virginia Poll has been conducted periodically since January 21, 1980 and reported by sponsored by statewide media organization. The name The West Virginia Poll is a registered trademark of REPASS, all rights reserved.


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