1. 1 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Updates and Overview Tom Auligné, Director, JCSDA VIIRS RGB Earth Day 20160422

2. Paul van Delst (1966-2016)

3. On-Going JCSDA Successes Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) (Rel 2.3.0 with cloud fraction) More unified Data Assimilation -> Support for operational/research community Accelerated use of research and operational satellites into operational models – AIRS -> IASI -> NPP -> preparation for JPSS and GOES-R Contributions to continuous improvement to NWP model performance

4. JCSDA Management Structure Executive Team Director (Auligne) * Partner Associate Directors (Baker, Gelaro, Zapotocny, Benjamin, Derber) Chief Administrative Officer (Yoe) Management Oversight Board NOAA / NWS / NCEP (Lapenta (Chair)) NASA/GSFC/Earth Sciences Division (Pawson) NOAA / NESDIS / STAR (Kalb) NOAA / OAR (Atlas) Dept. of the Air Force / Air Force Director of Weather (Col. Gremillion) Dept.of the Navy / N84 and NRL (Capt. Sauer and Hansen) Agency Executives NASA, NOAA, Department of the Navy, and Department of the Air Force Advisory Panel Science Steering Committee Science priorities: Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM), new instruments, clouds and precipitation, land surface, ocean, atmospheric composition.

5. Strategic Goals 1.Expand capabilities in assimilating satellite sensors 2.Spearhead a community data assimilation initiative 3.Address scientific frontiers to optimize the use of satellite data 4.Deliver new and improved tools to support observing system impact assessments 5.Foster improved organizational management, interagency coordination and outreach strategies

6. Strategic Goals 1.Expand capabilities in assimilating satellite sensors 2.Spearhead a community data assimilation initiative 3.Address scientific frontiers to optimize the use of satellite data 4.Deliver new and improved tools to support observing system impact assessments 5.Foster improved organizational management, interagency coordination and outreach strategies

7. Prioritized New Satellites and Sensors  New Sensors Data Assimilation: (new QC, error optimization, impact assessment on NOAA forecast systems) JPSS1 – ATMS and CrIS (Launch date NLT Q2 FY17) GOES-R – ABI (AMV winds and radiances) (Launch date October 2016) COSMIC 2 (Launch date Q2 FY17)  HIMAWARI-8 AHI (Dry run for GOES-R ABI)  GPM /GMI  Megha-Tropiques SAPHIR (WV Sounder)  ISS-RAPIDSCAT (Scatterometer)  GCOMW AMSR2  SMAP  JASON 3  Existing Sensors optimization: (QC, Surface-sensitive channels assimilation, pre-processing, dynamic emissivity, etc)  ATMS, SSMIS, AMSU, MHS

8. Strategic Goals 1.Expand capabilities in assimilating satellite sensors 2.Spearhead a community data assimilation initiative 3.Address scientific frontiers to optimize the use of satellite data 4.Deliver new and improved tools to support observing system impact assessments 5.Foster improved organizational management, interagency coordination and outreach strategies

9. Myriad of concurrent DA Initiatives Weakly/Strongly Coupled Reanalyses for reforecast & climate Operational/Research, Global/Regional models Situational awareness, Nowcasting Observation impact assessment and OSSEs “Software is like entropy. It is difficult to grasp, weighs nothing, and obeys the second law of thermodynamics; i.e. it always increases. “ Norman Ralph Augustine

10. GOALS 1.Nation unified next-generation Data Assimilation system 2.Increase R2O transition rate from academic community 3.Increase science productivity and code performance STRATEGY 1.Modular code for flexibility, robustness and optimization 2.Mutualize model-agnostic components across Applications(atmosphere, ocean, strongly coupled, etc.) Models & Grids(operational/research, regional/global models) Observations(past, current and future) 3.Collective reduction of entropy Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI)

11. DARTGSI D D D E E E C A A B B C A B A B C A B C MULTI-LEVEL COMMUNITY REPOSITORY NCODA A Research Generic Oper C … C C C B Operations Scientific efforts in academia Scientific efforts in OAR Scientific efforts in research community Scientific efforts in satellite DA in Navy JCSDA’s own DA Activities Operational Research 1 Generic 2 3 (TRL 1-4) (TRL 7-9) (TRL 4-7) Code Standards & Constraints

12. Obs. Pre-processor Reading Data selection Basic QC Solver Variational/EnKF Hybrid CODBMS: Community Observation Data Base Management System Background & Obs Error Observations Model Verification Model post-proc. Cal/Val, Monitoring Retrievals Simulated Obs. CODBMS (obs + model equivalent) Unified Forward Operator (UFO) Model Initial Conditions Observation Impact (OSE, OSSE) Situational awareness Reanalysis Model Initial Conditions Observation Impact (OSE, OSSE) Situational awareness Reanalysis NEMS/ESMF Atm Dycore (TBD) Wave (WW3/SWA N) Sea Ice (CICE/SIS2/KIS S) Aerosols (GOCART ) Ocean (HYCOM/MOM ) Land Surface (NOAH) Atm Physics (GFS) Atm DA (GSI) DATA ASSIMILATION COMPONENTS for Atmosphere, Ocean, Waves, Sea-ice, Land, Aerosols, Chemistry, Hydrology, Ionosphere DATA ASSIMILATION COMPONENTS for Atmosphere, Ocean, Waves, Sea-ice, Land, Aerosols, Chemistry, Hydrology, Ionosphere Analysis Increments

13. Strategic Goals 1.Expand capabilities in assimilating satellite sensors 2.Spearhead a community data assimilation initiative 3.Address scientific frontiers to optimize the use of satellite data 4.Deliver new and improved tools to support observing system impact assessments 5.Foster improved organizational management, interagency coordination and outreach strategies

14. Scientific Frontiers for this year Improve the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) transmittance calculation, cloud and aerosol optical properties, and software efficiency Assimilation of all-sky satellite radiances (esp. cloud-affected and over land) Improve balance in analysis (at all scales, better use of ensemble information)

15. Strategic Goals 1.Expand capabilities in assimilating satellite sensors 2.Spearhead a community data assimilation initiative 3.Address scientific frontiers to optimize the use of satellite data 4.Deliver new and improved tools to support observing system impact assessments 5.Foster improved organizational management, interagency coordination and outreach strategies

16. Observing System Impact Assessment Global Forecast Dropout Tool (GFDPT) JCSDA Observing System Assessment Standing Capability (JOSASC) Forecast Sensitivity - Observation Impact (FSOI)

17. Experimental Design Time period: 3-month DJF 2014-15 (planned JJA 2014) 00UTC & 06UTC cycles Verification: 24h forecast against self analysis Metric: global total dry energy (surface-100hPa) Adjoint: dry plus moist physics, as available Ensemble: flow-following localization Approach: centrally collect data without aggregation Participating Centers: EMC, NRL, GMAO, Met Office, JMA Results shown here are VERY preliminary (only global summary plots of impact at 00UTC will be shown)

18. Fractional Impact at 00UTC: Satellite Radiances

19. Fractional Impact at 00UTC: Other Observations

20. Strategic Goals 1.Expand capabilities in assimilating satellite sensors 2.Spearhead a community data assimilation initiative 3.Address scientific frontiers to optimize the use of satellite data 4.Deliver new and improved tools to support observing system impact assessments 5.Foster improved organizational management, interagency coordination and outreach strategies

21. O2R Environment A pre-requisite for a successful R2O Transition 21  This is a critical piece for a successful R2O. O2R involves: –Supercomputer(s) : JIBB, S4, Zeus Allocation –Porting/benchmarking codes/systems/libraries –Documentation to help researchers navigate –User Support  Status: –GSI, GFS implemented/benchmarked –HWRF implemented and benchmarked –Synchronization with T1534 completed –On-going porting of the 4D Hybrid –JCSDA secured an upgrade to its JIBB and S4 supercomputers to perform OSSEs/OSEs and to keep up with the newest resolution  In progress: –Extension of O2R to include Ocean DA (NCODA, HYCOM) –Extension of O2R to include Land Systems (LIS). Scientific efforts in satellite DA in academia Scientific efforts in satellite DA in NOAA Scientific efforts in satellite DA in research community Scientific efforts in satellite DA in JCSDA (funded by GOES-R, JPSS, etc) Products, techniques, improvements, with direct and immediate relevance to Operational Models (both global and regional) Funded by NASA and NOAA; Supports ~ 100 JCSDA Partner & External Researchers; Exploring how best to sustain in future. O2R Environment: pre-requisite for successful R2O

22. Supporting External Research Project #TitleInstitutionPI 1 Improving scattering/absorption/polarization properties of snow, graupel, and ice aggregate particles from solar-to microwave-region wavelengths in support of CRTM Texas A&M UniversityPing Yang, PI 2 Assimilation of GPM satellite data in improving hurricane forecasting University of UtahZhaoxia Pu, PI 3 Optimal Precipitation Estimation for Land Surface Modeling George Mason University Viviana Maggioni, PI Paul R. Houser, Co-PI 4 Evaluation of OSS node-based assimilation Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) Jean-Luc Moncet & Alan Lipton, PI’s Sayed Bateni (Univ. of Hawaii) – Visiting Scientist (College Park): Estimation of surface turbulent heat fluxes via ensemble-based assimilation of remotely sensed land surface temperatures from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites.

23. Education and Outreach  Summer colloquium on satellite DA (3-year cycle)  Jul-Aug. 2015: Fort Collins  Annual JCSDA Science Workshop  May 2015: College Park  May 2016: Moss Landing  Joint Workshops with Programs and International Partners  Dec. 2015: 3 rd Joint JCSDA-ECMWF Workshop: “Cloud&precip radiance DA”  Jan 2016: JCSDA Symposium @AMS Annual Meeting  March 2016: Joint NCAR-JCSDA Workshop: “Blueprints for next-gen DA”  Jul 2016: Joint JCSDA-DTC GSI/EnKF Tutorial  JCSDA Newsletters  Highlight achievements by JCSDA scientists (internal/external)  Disseminate results and promote collaboration  Active web site: jcsda.noaa.gov  Open positions at JCSDA, newsletters, forms, projects, etc

24. JCSDA: Looking ahead Metrics of success = added value (faster, better, cheaper, safer) of doing work jointly via the JCSDA Scope of activities and role of JCSDA Collaborative, inter-dependent activities Annual Operating Plan Toward new Terms of Operations Annual timeline Project structure 24 Tasking Prioritizing Execution Oversight Reporting Budgeting Review

25. Planned Project Structure Project #1: CRTM – Science Project Manager and Software Engineer – Draft work plan under construction Project #2: New and Improved Observations – Prioritized list of new sensors + Readiness action plans – Cloud-and-precipitation-affected radiances – Radiances over land Project #3: JEDI – Science Project Manager and Software Engineer – Unified Forward Operator (atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, etc) – JCSDA member of GSI/EnKF DA Review Committee Project #4: Observing System Impact Assessment – JCSDA Observing System Assessment Standing Capability (JOSASC) – Commercial Weather Data Pilot (CWDP) project

26. Conclusion JCSDA = multi-agency, distributed center enabling partners to share efforts and results to accelerate, enhance, and expand use of satellite data in operational prediction systems Keys to Success Include – Development and adoption of Common Tools (CRTM) – R2O supported by O2R infrastructure (R2O2R2….) – Effective communication b/w partners, R&O communities Future Outlook – Exploring means to be more collaborative in planning and execution – Plan to hire JCSDA Executive Officer – Starting July 2016, JCSDA Director in Boulder, CO

27. 27 Questions?