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Selling into a Flooded Market West Midlands 25 th February 2016.

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Presentation on theme: "Selling into a Flooded Market West Midlands 25 th February 2016."— Presentation transcript:

1 Selling into a Flooded Market West Midlands 25 th February 2016

2 DISCLAIMER The information and opinions presented are of a general nature only and do not take into account the particular needs or individual circumstances of investors. The material does not constitute any investment recommendation or advice nor does it constitute legal or taxation advice. All information is copyright to Ten Tigers Pty Ltd. Ten Tigers Pty Ltd (ABN 20 194 919 017) trading as Ten Tigers does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or otherwise of the information and opinions contained herein and to the maximum extent permissible by law, accepts no liability in contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damages suffered as a result of reliance on such information or opinions. Ten Tigers Pty Ltd does not endorse any third parties that may have provided information included in the material. Authorisation for derivatives advice (futures and foreign exchange) is held by: Chris Tonkin, Authorised Representative No 290288 with Australian Financial Services License No. 329063 held by Ten Tigers Grain Marketing Pty Ltd. (ABN 45 132 654 472). PO Box 1475, Geraldton, WA, 6531

3 World Supply & Demand Yawn – Wonder what’s for lunch! Worlds wheat pantry is full. (USDA raises global wheat supplies by 1.2mmt) Mums out doing the shopping again.(World production raised another 0.4mmt tonnes.) I am sick of eating this healthy food (World wheat consumption lowered by 4.7mmt)

4 World & US Stocks to use Where is the grain? This yearLast year WorldUSWorldUS Wheat344930.437.4 Corn221421.112.6 Soybeans261225.74.9 Canola7109.613.5

5 What do we need to happen Weather issues – Nth Hemisphere (anywhere) Political interference – Russia, Argentina, India $AUD / $USD – Higher interest rates in US, Chinese demand to stabilise, money flows to not be as volatile. Normal human behaviour !!!!

6 What do we need to know What is a good price? How do I recognise a good price? How do I take the emotion out of decision making? Risk / Reward How do I actually action my plan? How can I be sure I know the best price on the day?

7 Target Realism The VE Commodore is worth $45,000. Until they brought out the VF and everyone was up grading. Now what’s it worth? Sure wheat at $300 is a 60 th Percentile but in a flooded market? Talk to your grain marketer Decide on the number.

8 Kwinana APW MG percentiles

9 Worst Case Scenario This is when we decide how many tonnes to contract. What is the worst yield you have ever had? Multiply this by your hectares. This is the minimum tonnage you need to contract at a good price.

10 Now go and Farm ! Our clients don’t like watching prices every day. So we do! Opportunities can be gone in 5 minutes.

11 Ten Tigers – Grain Marketing Specialists Now what ? Outsource the stress to Ten Tigers “Without you my head would explode” Cooma Farming Binnu “Ten Tigers do all the work and run the business and get things done. I could not run my farm without them” BF White & Co Miling “We feel confident knowing that Ten Tigers has the attention of the major buyers. We have shared in price premiums when selling grain as part of a bigger parcel, something we couldn’t achieve on our own” Stade Farming Katanning


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