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Model Description Sample Results Next Steps Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions)

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Presentation on theme: "Model Description Sample Results Next Steps Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions)"— Presentation transcript:

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2 Model Description Sample Results Next Steps

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4 Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

5 Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

6 Prisoner’s Point Holland Cut Victoria Canal

7 Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

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9 Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

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11 Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Monitoring Data (Initial Conditions) Hydrodynamics Water Quality USGS; DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Astronomical Tides Delta Inflow & Export Rates Delta Net Channel Depletions DWR Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Inflow Turbidity Forecast Watershed Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Delta Turbidity Fate & Transport Delta Hydrodynamic & Constituent Transport Modeling Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Forecast Data (Boundary Conditions) Reservoir Operations Meteorology DWR; NWS Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Data Dissemination: Monitoring & Forecast Data BayDeltaLive.com Scenario Analysis DASM-T Scenario Analysis DASM-T

12 Holland Cut Victoria Canal Prisoner’s Point Forecast Observed Scenario B TurbidityTurbidity TimeTime Scenario A Scenario C Delta Map Increasing Exports

13 Background Sample Results Next Steps

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17 17 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 55 66 77

18 18 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 55 66 55 66

19 Neural network trained to emulate DSM2 turbidity fate and transport Training data developed from 12 DSM2 simulations – 36 years (water years 1976-2011) Applicable for adult smelt pre-spawning period (December-February). Assumes DCC gates are closed and south Delta barriers not installed. Training process: 60% calibration; 20% validation; 20% testing

20 Background Model Description Next Steps

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25 Background Model Description Sample Results

26 DASM-T will be integrated into tools suite during the pilot forecasts beginning this winter. DASM-T will be publically available. DWR has tentatively agreed to pilot the forecasting procedure this winter. We encourage USFWS staff, as well as the DSWG, to pilot DASM-T.

27 Dr. Sujoy Roy, Tetra Tech, Inc. Dr. Limin Chen, Tetra Tech, Inc.

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33 LocationDailyMonthly Ф1Ф1 Ф2Ф2 R2R2 Ф1Ф1 Ф2Ф2 R2R2 Sacramento River @ Rio Vista 3.50.970.941.11.010.99 Old River @ Quimby Island 2.00.890.831.70.910.96 Old River @ Bacon Island 1.80.820.781.50.850.93 San Joaquin River @ Prisoner’s Point 3.70.810.763.00.870.92 Middle River @ Holt 2.00.760.691.70.820.89 Clifton Court Forebay Entrance 3.10.750.731.30.900.91

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