1. 1 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FACING LOW CARBON ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES FOR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION TO 2050 CAETS Working Group Report 30 June 2011 Preamble First CAETS report Scope for a second report Work to date

2. Preamble The introduction of low emission technologies is of wide interest to companies, government and community. However, much of the advice available is neither comprehensive nor unbiased. The Academies play a significant role in providing unbiased, authoritative, independent, comprehensive and timely advice. Activity through CAETS can aid individual Academies by increasing the credibility of their advice. Recent OECD work indicates that we still have much to learn: – Innovative capacity is a far stronger indicator of investment in low emission technologies than R&D, feed in tariffs and renewable energy targets – R&D investment in emerging technologies has more impact than in mature technologies – OECD ENV/EPOC/GSP(2010)10Final 7 July 2010 Climate Policy and Technological Innovation and Transfer: An Overview of Trends and Recent Empirical Results Nick Johnstone

4. First CAETS Report In November 2010, the CAETS Working Group Report Deployment of Low Emissions Technologies for Electric Power Generation in Response to Climate Change was published, following endorsement by CAETS at the Council Meeting, Calgary, July 2009. The Working Group comprised of CAETS representatives from Australia, Canada, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, South Africa and UK. The report had clear recommendations, particularly for focus on: – Improved efficiency of energy end use and means of promoting efficient usage globally; – Basic research leading to technical breakthroughs and cost reductions in renewable energy; – Advanced nuclear reactors, as well as small nuclear reactors suited to distributed generation; – Research, development and commercialisation of carbon capture and storage technologies; – New technology for electricity distribution networks, especially to optimise systems to handle fluctuating renewable sources and loads from charging electric vehicles. Following the wide response from the First Report, and continued interest from the Working Group, Phase II of the report is being produced.

5. Scope for a second Report There are challenges and opportunities in the implementation of low emission technologies for electricity production. This report addresses the focal questions: – What are the most promising initiatives for individual technologies that might accelerate their investment and deployment ? – What integration and combinations of technologies will likewise accelerate investment and deployment? – By “individual technologies” we refer to clusters of technologies, eg CCS, nuclear, wind, etc We propose that the process will involve further steps: – Recruit lead Academies to write first pass notes on individual topics -2m – Circulate to other interested Academies for comment and contributions -2m – Integration of responses (might need a meeting) – 2m – Production of final report (ATSE responsibility) -2m

6. Work to date Working group formed from contributors to the first report: Dr Vaughan Beck, ATSE; Professor Frank Behrendt, Acatech: Professor Robert Evans, CAE; Dr Philip Lloyd, SAAE; Professor John Loughhead, RAEng; Professor Myongsook Oh, NAEK; Dr Baldev Raj, INAE Informal meeting here in Mexico to discuss progress Due to the tragic circumstances in Japan, the Engineering Academy of Japan is unable to contribute to the Second Working Group Report. We would like to thank EAJ, especially Dr Iizuka, for their important contributions. Discussion invited at Council and “volunteers” to populate the study

7. “INDIVIDUAL” TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS SectionNominal TitleResponsibility 1212 INTEGRATION, HYBRID SOLUTIIONS HYDRO ATSE, RAEng CAE 3SOLAR: various forms including solar thermal with storageINAE 4CARBON SEQUESTRATIONATSE 5GEOTHERMAL: Hot rocksATSE 6GASSAAE 7 WAVE & TIDALRAEng 8 WIND + BIOMASSAcatech 9 COAL: including IGCC & Carbon captureNAEK 10 NUCLEARResponsibility TBC

8. First draft considerations SectionNominal TitleResponsibility 1INTRODUCTIONCAE 2RISK ASSESSMENT: Financial and TechnicalINAE 3ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: For individual technologies (based on LCOE and option value analysis) ATSE 4IDENTIFYING A MIX OF TECHNOLOGIES TO MEET DEMAND: Identify different techniques SAAE 5ENGINEERING CHALLENGES: To deploy LCE technologies at scaleRAEng 6GRID INTEGRATION CHALLENGES FOR LCE TECHNOLOGIESAcatech 7CHALLENGES FACING INDUSTRY TO INTRODUCE LCE TECHNOLOGIESNAEK 8CHALLENGES FACING GOVERNMENTS TO INTRODUCE LCE TECHNOLOGIESResponsibility TBC