1. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Small Farmer Commercialisation Theme Report & Plans

2. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Research Questions How & under what conditions do SF commercialise?  Which markets, crops? What policy supports this?  Factors for success? To what degree, what benefit?  How much are SF commercialised? Variations across farms, through time?  Benefit to SF from commercialisation? Variations x farm, gender, time?  Sustaining benefits? Markets, pests, environment, politics  Multipliers in rest of rural economy: rural wages!

3. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Emerging Questions Interactions with LS firms & markets  Scope for contract farming, linking SF to processors, wholesalers, retailers How risky is more commercial farming?  Market gluts? Market co-ordination Is commercialisation at expense of: food security, environment, Access to resources: Water, land, labour…Equity Does it widen economic and social differences? Does it harm women, minorities, the poor?

4. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Work done since Feb 09 Surveys & 1 st round analysis: h’hold quest & focus groups Lume District, Ethiopia Kenya: Athi River, Kinangop, Lari, Mai Mahiu Malawi: Nkhotakota & Ntchisi Tanzania: Kilosa & Kilolo

5. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 The Questionnaire Crop  Seed, fertilizer, inputs,  Sales, spoil, retain Livestock  Number, value  Inputs, outputs Extension  Content, provider,  Methods, preferences  Meeting places, Interaction,  Willingness to pay,  Satisfaction, rating Input Use  Quantity, price, source,  Distance, cash or credit Credit, banking Labor costs Km to infrastructure/services  Extension, tarmac, airtime Demography  Age, Education, mobile  Off farm and salary income Expenditure, assets

6. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 The Qualitative Tool: 4 Focus Groups Enterprises Farm sizes Off farm jobs and businesses Extension  Availability, quality, relevance over time  Needs, use, reasons,  Providers, new sources Cell phones  Ownership, use, cost Cell phones and ag information WTPay for 5 min call For what type of info Email, internet Weather info

7. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Work done since Feb 09 Papers:  Can smallholder model deliver poverty reduction & food security for a rapidly growing population in Africa? — for FAO Reply to Profs Collier & Dercon  Helping Africa Feed Itself — Brief for Friends of Europe  Input Subsidies —Brief for APP [in progress]

8. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Early Findings from Surveys Success is possible, if complex Drivers & conditions for successful commercialisation Success linked to good natural endowments …... to markets, infrastructure  peri-urban in Ethiopia & Kenya…note exceptions Most crops for domestic/regional markets, not export,  Maize, tef, cotton, groundnuts, + chillies, onions, tomatoes Public investment important  Road, irrigation, input quality, schools, macro Diminishing returns to agricultural extension? Limited access to factor markets: not binding  Credit, land rental/purchase.

9. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Social differences Participants had slightly better assets  Education, land holding, off farm income  ? Before or because? Cross Country  Cost labour & food basket differ.  Wages: Ethiopia significantly < Kenya, Tanzania  Institutional differences? From policy

10. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Nature of process & other points Commercialisation does not necessarily mean specialisation!  But Tanzania exception: why? Age: are farmers getting older?  Kenya: heads household average 51 years. Mobile phone use widespread  Mainly for social purposes, not business.  Not in Ethiopia

11. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Plans: Big Questions Dynamics  between farming systems & local economies?  Household characteristics Education, off farm, age, assets, gender etc ? Policy, public investment, social capital Multipliers:  how strong in the local rural economy?  What determines So what for Policy?, How to…?

12. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 Plans: X Cutting Themes & FAC Big Picture Link to CAADP Pillar II Scope to use villages to observe:  Environmental change & CC  Political influences  Social differentiation & gender relations  Land issues Potential to inform big debates

13. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 3 Yr Plans, Activities Get full value from existing country studies:  Kenya, Malawi, Ethiopia  Explore outliers and exceptions – Yr 1  Look deeper at emerging issues - Yr 2 using non quantitative methods – value chains, institutional analysis, etc Begin work in West Africa + TZ. Baseline surveys,  Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tanzania Follow up insights from 1 st round analysis: e.g.  Management of water  Local politics and farming Re-survey all cases in last year

14. www.future-agricultures.org FAC Annual Meeting IDS March 2010 BudgetFY10-11FY11-12FY12-13 Further Analysis of data Ethiopia9,500 Kenya9,500 Malawi9,500 Baseline Surveys Ghana29,225 Burkina Faso29,225 Tanzania29,225 Bi annual Team Meeting8,250 6 Topical Deep Dives59,700 6 HH Resurveys + Analysis, write up dissemination157,950 Total124,42567,950166,200 358,575 + 18,000 inflation