1. State Election Preview 2016 Tim Storey National Conference of State Legislatures March 30, 2016

2. Party Control Shifts 2010 --24 Chambers Democrat Gains Republican Gains Ties Alabama House & Senate Colorado House Indiana House Iowa House Louisiana Senate Maine House & Senate Michigan House Minnesota House & Senate Mississippi House Montana House New Hampshire House & Senate New York Senate North Carolina House & Senate Ohio House Pennsylvania House Wisconsin Assembly & Senate Oregon House Virginia Senate

3. Party Control Shifts 2012 --12 Chambers Colorado House Maine House Maine Senate Minnesota House Minnesota Senate New Hampshire House New York Senate* Oregon House Alaska Senate Arkansas House Arkansas Senate Wisconsin Senate Washington Senate* Democrat GainsRepublican Gains

4. Party Control Shifts 2014 --11 Chambers Colorado Senate Maine Senate Minnesota House Nevada Assembly Nevada Senate New Hampshire House New Mexico House New York Senate Washington Senate West Virginia House West Virginia Senate Democrat Gains Republican Gains

5. President's Party in Mid-Term Elections Seats Gained/Lost 1902 1922 1934 1958 2002 2010

6. 62.6% Republican Share of Seats in the South 1938 - 2014

7. State Legislatures 2016 Democrat - 11 Split - 8 Nonpartisan Republican - 30

8. Legislative Seats Held by Party 1900-2014 2014

9. Governor Party 2016 Democrat - 18 Republican - 31 Independent- 1

10. State Governments 2016 Democrat - 7 Divided - 20 Nonpartisan Republican- 22

11. State Elections 2016 House Only--4 No 2014 Elections--4 Governor Election--12

12. State Legislative Battlegrounds 2016

13. Governor 2016: Races to Watch Lean Democrat = 1 Lean Republican = 2 Toss Up = 4 Likely and Solid Seats ( = 2 = 3)

15. Final Thoughts… Top of the Ticket Presidential Year Turnout GOP vs. GOP success Changing Electorate Stakes are Yuge

16. State Election Preview 2016 Tim Storey Tim.Storey@NCSL.org

17. 17

18. President's Party in Presidential Elections Seats Gained/Lost

19. Tim Storey Tim.Storey@NCSL.org

20. 20 Control of Southern Legislatures--1992

21. 21 Control of Southern Legislatures--2014

23. Seat Changes by Region 2010 to 2014 +113 R +170 D +32 D +12 D

24. State Legislatures Pre-Election 2014 Democrat- 19 Split- 3 Nonpartisan Republican- 27

25. Seat Changes by Region 2012 to 2014 + 93 R + 49 R + 30 R + 143 R