1. Ebola By Danny Zaetz and Andrew Bryson

2. Purposes Observe spread of Ebola Examine effects of variables on Ebola

3. RNA filovirus Found in nonhuman primate hosts Spread through bodily fluids Highly dangerous to humans –Biosafety level 4 –~70% mortality rate within 2 weeks –No known treatment What is Ebola?

4. 4 different strains Mostly confined to Africa –Monkeys in U.S. infected Spreads rapidly through hospitals –Sterilization –Rapid outbreaks What is Ebola? (cont.)

5. Assumptions: No immigration or emigration No other factors No treatment Estimated & constant rates –Exponential infection rate Regular outbreaks Runge-Kutta 2 integration

6. Computational Model

7. Interactive Model Click here for Java model.

8. Results Frequency of outbreaks does not significantly affect spread. Preventative measures greatly decrease spread. Killing instead of infecting Living groups eventually stabilize.

9. Conclusions Ebola is not efficient. Proper prevention stops Ebola spread.

10. References Center for Disease Control, “Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers,” Bob “2” Gotwals’ model and Ebola data http://infowire.net/brett/personal/ebola.html