1. Transit Capital Project Revenue Advisory Board June 16, 2016 Virginia Department of Rail & Public Transportation Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS  Capital projection methodology overview  Assumptions  Expenses  Revenues  Projected surplus/deficit  Implications  Next steps 2

3. CAPITAL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW 3  10-year baseline projection of transit capital costs  Most agencies based on FY16-20 Six-Year Improvement Program, adjusted  Apply WMATA FY16 Capital Improvement Program  Projections FY21 onward  10-year baseline projection of transit capital revenues  Gap analysis: Deficit/additional revenues needed

4. ASSUMPTIONS Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

5. PROJECT CATEGORIES  State of Good Repair  Rehabilitation and replacement projects such as purchase of replacement vehicles; amenities including shelters, fare payment, bike racks, signage; computers, communications and technology; security; and track lease and debt service payments  Expansion Projects  Expansion vehicles (bus, vans, and service vehicles)  Significant new facilities and upgrades such as construction of second elevators, station entrances, and parking garages  Service Extension/Special Projects  Virginia Beach Light Rail Transit (LRT) Extension; Richmond Bus Rapid Transit (BRT); Norfolk Naval Station Transit Extension; Route 1 BRT in Fairfax County; and Bus Construction Admin/Maintenance Facility in Lynchburg 5

6. STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING TIERS  Tier 1  Replacement and Expansion Vehicles  68% maximum state match  Tier 2  Infrastructure and Facilities  34% maximum state match  Tier 3  Other  17% maximum state match 6

7. $5.7 BILLION PROJECTED STATEWIDE TRANSIT CAPITAL INVESTMENTS BY TYPE ($000, FY17-FY26) 7

8. $2.1 BILLION STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS BY AGENCY FY17-26 TOTAL 8

9. $1.5 BILLION STATE TRANSIT CAPITAL REVENUE *Excludes federal funds disbursed by the State 9

10. PROJECTED SURPLUS/DEFICIT Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

11. $2.1 BILLION STATE CAPITAL FUNDING NEEDS BY TIER & $1.5 BILLION PROJECTED STATE REVENUE FY17-26 *Excludes share of transit capital costs funded by federal revenues 11

12. TRANSIT CAPITAL DEFICIT/SURPLUS AT CURRENT STATE MATCH RATES 12

13. STATE MATCH RATES TO FY2023 TIER 1 MATCH MAINTAINED AT HIGH PRIORITY 13

14. LOCAL MATCH RATES TO FY2023 TIER 1 MATCH MAINTAINED AT HIGH PRIORITY 14 Note: Local contribution may be offset by federal or other funds

15. IMPLICATIONS & NEXT STEPS Transit Resource Allocation Plan Capital Projection

16. IMPLICATIONS OF ANALYSIS  Funding deficit by FY2019  Significant drop in state funding participation rates 2021 onward  More pronounced impact on projects without federal funding  Maintaining the current state participation rate by agencies will require an average of $65 million annually FY2019-FY2026 16

17. NEXT STEPS  Update analysis to reflect:  FY17 SYIP  Updated WMATA capital program  Recently-approved Transit Development Plans  Identify new/existing revenue sources to address projected deficit  Develop grant prioritization strategy 17

18. CONTACTS Consultant Team Nathan Macek Director of Project Development & Finance WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff 202-365-2927 (direct/mobile) 202-370-2912 (office) maceknm@pbworld.com 18