1. Type author names here © Oxford University Press, 2013. All rights reserved. Chapter 3 The Cold War in the Middle East Fawcett: International Relations of The Middle East 3e

2. Origins - Cold War had deep effects on the Middle East, though the extent of this impact is disputed. - Struggle between US and USSR over influence in the Middle East after World War II. - Main areas of concern: - Strategic advantage - Oil reserves - Ideological conflict Origins - Cold War had deep effects on the Middle East, though the extent of this impact is disputed. - Struggle between US and USSR over influence in the Middle East after World War II. - Main areas of concern: - Strategic advantage - Oil reserves - Ideological conflict International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

3. Strategic Advantage - Conflicts in Iran and Greece early manifestations of Cold War’s impact in the Middle East - Greece: Truman Doctrine (1947) - Iran: Kurds and Azeris International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

4. Oil in the Middle East - Role of production from Arab countries and Iran in meeting Western oil demands. - Nationalisation efforts: from rallying cry to damp squib? - For all the discussion of oil as a “vital interest”, it never functioned as a contentious issue between the superpowers. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

5. Clash of Ideologies - Communist and leftists movements in the Middle East: from early freedom to later repression. - Ideology plays in important role in US/USSR rivalry: - US policy initially ambiguous. - American vision of modernity vs Soviet alternative of egalitarianism and benevolent state. - Role of ideology changes over the course of the Cold War. - Superpower relations with Middle Eastern states complex, not simply imperialist or neo-imperialist. - Patron/Client relations: but clients can switch patrons, or have multiple patrons  playing superpowers off each other, eg. Egypt, Iraq. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

6. Cold War’s Internal Impact - How would politics have developed without the Cold War? - Secular opposition driven underground: - Dictatorial regimes maintained. - Rise of the religious right. - Polarization of political life distorted growth of indigenous political institutions. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

7. { Chapter 4 The Middle East since the Cold War Fawcett: International Relations of The Middle East 3e

8. { Middle East Exceptionalism? - After end of Cold War, Middle East retains centrality. - “Exceptionalism”: Perception that the Middle East is immune to changes seen elsewhere  Dented if not discredited. - The Arab Spring: a 5 th wave of democratization? Domestic & international consequences. - Factors of change (youth, communications, Islamic forces), factors of continuity (petro-politics). Middle East Exceptionalism? - After end of Cold War, Middle East retains centrality. - “Exceptionalism”: Perception that the Middle East is immune to changes seen elsewhere  Dented if not discredited. - The Arab Spring: a 5 th wave of democratization? Domestic & international consequences. - Factors of change (youth, communications, Islamic forces), factors of continuity (petro-politics). International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

9. { Intermestics - Paradigms like the “End of History” and “Clash of Civilizations” of limited applicability in the Middle East. - Intermestics: interconnectedness of international and domestic politics. - To traditional state-centred military threats are added people- centred human (in)security threats. - Resource-gap increasing, with implications for proneness to conflict. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

10. { Oil: Assets and Disadvantages - Middle East and North Africa play a central role in global oil supplies. - For the region, however, oil is a mixed blessing: - Positive: Significant income, political influence - Negative: market fluctuations, undiversified economies, laziness and effortless spending. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

11. { Geopolitical Conflicts - Arab-Israeli Conflict: Basis of Middle East’s militarization and rise of so-called “national security states”. - High levels of military spending, e.g. Saudi Arabia. - Border disputes: impact almost every country in the region. - Proliferation pressure. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

12. { Socio-economic Deficits - Demographics: On average x3 population increase in past 50 years  potential social upheavals and interstate spillover. - Age of populations: the “Youthening” dilemma. - Failure to attract foreign resources through trade or investment. - “Low politics” basis of Arab Spring. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

13. { Religio-Politics - Politicization of religion throughout the Middle East. - Even officially secular countries (Turkey) impacted by religio- politics. - Religion as a symbol of the defence of threatened identity. - Socio-economic ills and threats to identity help the rise of Islamic opposition, furthered by legitimacy deficit of regimes. - International spill-over: 9/11 and other examples. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

14. { Arab Spring: Regional Repercussions - Opportunity for Islamists to Rule  towards an Islamist Spring? - Political instability and social tension bound to persist. - Pattern of regional leaderships: the role of Turkey. - External factors impact domestic and international relations. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

15. { Chapter 5 Oil and Political Economy in the International Relations of the Middle East Fawcett: International Relations of The Middle East 3e

16. { Oil and the Consolidation of the State System - Strategic interest in oil since early 20 th century, e.g. British policy in the Gulf. - Fundamental influence in shaping boundaries and independent existence of many states in the region. - Instrumental in consolidation by favouring aggregation.. - Counter-intuitively, oil has contributed to resolution of boundary conflicts, rather than compounding them. - Oil is a supporting cause to violence, but not a primary one. Oil and the Consolidation of the State System - Strategic interest in oil since early 20 th century, e.g. British policy in the Gulf. - Fundamental influence in shaping boundaries and independent existence of many states in the region. - Instrumental in consolidation by favouring aggregation.. - Counter-intuitively, oil has contributed to resolution of boundary conflicts, rather than compounding them. - Oil is a supporting cause to violence, but not a primary one. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

17. { Oil and the International Relations of the Middle East - Impact of oil on relations between countries of the region as well as relations with the rest of the world. - British, and later American, attitudes towards the Middle East strongly influenced by oil. - Oil as a tool, rather than an objective: sanctions against Libya, Iraq, Iran make access more difficult in order to pursue political goals. - For producers, oil is not a prominent issue in shaping foreign policy. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

18. { Oil and Domestic Politics: The Rentier State Paradigm - Oil rents are paid directly to the state from abroad, which in turn supports society by allocating this rent. - Production (taxes coming from society) vs Allocation. - Not all Arab states are rentier. - Implications of rentierism for state: no need to seek legitimacy through democratic representation, and autonomy in policies. - Oil exporters less repressive than non-oil neighbours: inclusivist practices of consultation. - Challenge of establishing representative democracy in a rentier state  prospects for Arab Spring? International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

19. { Oil and Inter-Arab Relations - Dialectic between oil-poor and oil-rich states in the region. - Authoritarian rentier states do not need a “national myth”. - Oil-poor state claims to share of rent. - 1970s rent boom led to period of international redistribution. - Balance of power has shifted to the newer, oil rich states such as the countries of the GCC. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

20. { Regional/International Environments and Political Order - Being an oil producer seems to help against revolutionary contagion. - Arab Spring’s challenge to Gulf countries: divided responses. - Outcome of revolutions will determine impact: pressure for democracy in the Gulf, or business as usual? International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

21. { Conclusion - Middle East plays a central role in international oil. - Debate over whether oil is a political commodity. - Apart from rents, control of oil has not brought special political or military benefits. - Polarisation between oil-haves and oil-have-nots. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

22. { Chapter 6 The Puzzle of Political Reform in the Middle East Fawcett: International Relations of The Middle East 3e

23. { The Authoritarian State Model - New governments emerging in second half of 20 th century faced formidable challenges: - Statist economies - Personal freedom sacrificed for state security - Clientelism and corruption defined relationship between ruled and ruler. - Democracy not much discussed – weak accountability to public. - Exceptions: Israel, Turkey, but democracy still incomplete. - Arab Human Development Reports. The Authoritarian State Model - New governments emerging in second half of 20 th century faced formidable challenges: - Statist economies - Personal freedom sacrificed for state security - Clientelism and corruption defined relationship between ruled and ruler. - Democracy not much discussed – weak accountability to public. - Exceptions: Israel, Turkey, but democracy still incomplete. - Arab Human Development Reports. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

24. { Explaining the Democracy Deficit - Cultural explanation? Yet Muslims do practice democracy. - Discussions of authoritarian tactics: co-option, etc. - “The Arab Street”: stereotypes, not reality. - Little real pressure from the West to encourage democracy, despite the rhetoric  virtues of stability. - Democratising states may be more unstable than authoritarian. - Political economy factors: state’s central role, rentierism. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

25. { Muslims and the Question of Political Reform - Dominant oppositional forces typically hostile to secularism, but embrace representative democracy. - Governments not willing to experiment in political reform. - Palestine, Algeria: elections bring Islamists to power, but undermined by external powers. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition

26. { The 2011 Arab Uprisings - Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, GCC, etc. - Core demand of protests is respect and dignity. - From de-politicization to re-politicization of public space. - Personalization of Islam: new identities and opportunities. - Liberalization and democratization as a process. International Relations of the Middle East, 3 rd Edition