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Industry & SB Direct Sales Updates JUNE 23 RD 2016 ROB MCMILLAN, EVP & FOUNDER SILICON VALLEY BANK WINE DIVISION
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Explaining the Economy »Looking At Long Term Cycles 2
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Santa Barbara - 1945 3
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) The Virtuous Cycle of Productivity in Economies Type Sections or Title of Entire Presentation ‘Insert-Header and Footer’ Georgia 10pt 4 GDP Thrives Within Stable non-Corrupt Governments Size of Labor Force time Hours Worked = Productivity Labor Force Helped by Birth Rate + Immigration Productivity Enhanced with Capital Investment Capital Investment Should be Incented with Low Interest Rates Capital Investment = Long Term Growth in Labor Force Labor Force Spending = Higher GDP
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) S&P 500 – 1941 to the Present 5 ‘48-’73 ‘83-’99 ‘00-’16
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Participation in Labor Force Has Trended Lower 6
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) US Birthrate in Decline – Accelerated with Recession = Low Productivity Type Sections or Title of Entire Presentation ‘Insert-Header and Footer’ Georgia 10pt 7
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Contributions to Productivity Growth percentage points 8
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Where are Companies Directing Their Cash Growth in the uses of Cash in Non-Financial Stocks Source: Wall Street Journal 9
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) S&P 500 Rolling 4 Quarter Stock Buybacks 10
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Interest Rate Changes – Fed Expecting One Increase Now Source: Bianco Research 11
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) U.S GDP Growth 12
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) What is Driving Premiumization Then? Growth in Upper Middle Class 13
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Buyers »Changing Landscape »Desire and Willingness 14
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Source: 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015 15 SVB Reports on Consumption Share Fine Wine
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Median American Net Worth by Age Source: U.S. Federal Reserve 16 Millennials Gen X Boomer Mature
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Demographic Demand by Price Point (Fine Wine) Source: 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015 17
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Growth in Premium Categories Millennial Fingerprints - 18
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Projection of U.S. Net Household Wealth to 2030 Source: Deloitte Center for Financial Services, Nov. 9 th, 2015 19 Millennials will never move out!
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Projected Size of the Workforce in 2025 – Millennials in Charge 20
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Generational Differences in Beer vs Wine Consumption Source: Scarborough Research, 2015
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) U.S. Per Capita Beer Consumption 1900 to 2014 Gallons Per Person
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) POLITICS 23
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Presidential Election Odds of Success 24 Presidential Election
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) WORLD WINE Type Sections or Title of Entire Presentation ‘Insert-Header and Footer’ Georgia 10pt 25
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Worldwide Production vs Consumption (in Mhls) Source: OIV 26 Consumption
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Consumption of Wine from 2000 – 2014 by Country Source: OIV 27
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Foreign Export Volume Trends 2008–2014 (in Mhls) Source: OIV 28
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Imported Bulk Wine to U.S. (Volume) Source: Wine By Numbers 29 Millions of Hectoliters
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Import Share of US Wine Market Source: Gomberg Fredrickson, SVB Estimates 30
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) DOMESTIC WINE Type Sections or Title of Entire Presentation ‘Insert-Header and Footer’ Georgia 10pt 31
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) U.S. Wine Consumption by Volume Source: California Wine Institute 32
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Segment Performance in Table Wine Wine Selling Below $9.00 Slumping Source: Nielsen Beverage Group 33
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Restaurant Sales of Wine Showing Long Term Decline Growing Fight over Pours Source: Beverage Information Group, Nielsen Beverage 34
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Large Wine Companies Buying Premium Assets Representative Real Estate Transactions Wine CompanyAssetTypeReported Purchase Price Crimson Wine GrpSeven Hills WineryWinery & Vineyards Ste. MichellePatz & HallBrand ConstellationThe PrisonerBrand$285M ConstellationMeomiBrand$315M ConstellationRobert MondaviWinery & Vineyards$1,030M GalloJ Wine CompanyWinery & Vineyards$90M GalloTalbot WineryWinery & Vineyards GalloAsti Winery & SouverainWinery & Vineyards GalloCypress Ranch & Palisades VineyardVineyards$18M GalloThe RanchWine Production GalloCovey Run WineryWinery & Vineyards GalloColumbia WineryWinery & Vineyards Kendall JacksonYverdon Vineyard & WineryWinery & Vineyards Kendall JacksonGran MoraineVineyards Kendall JacksonZena CrownVineyards Kendall JacksonSiduri WineryWinery Pernod RicardKenwood VineyardsWinery & Vineyards$100M Treasury EstatesDiagio Wine AssetsNumerous$600M Wine GroupBenzinger Family WineryWinery & Vineyards$70M 35
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SVB 2013 4:3 (GREY) Industry Profitability Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) U.S. Per Capita Beer Consumption 1900 to 2014 Gallons Per Person
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Generational Differences in Beer vs Wine Consumption Source: Scarborough Research, 2015
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Demographic Demand by Price Point (Fine Wine) Source: 2015 Annual Wine Conditions Survey | November 30, 2015 39
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Observations and Predictions on the Business Drop in per capita wine consumption, but temporary Santa Barbara is well positioned for the future consumer. Economic headwinds in front of everyone Gen X take over for boomers as top cohort by 2021 Millennials take over in 2026, but financially disadvantaged Large wine companies continue to buy premium assets DtC will show strong growth but threatened by local regulations Foreign imports gain market share in bottled wine in next decade Low priced generic/jug wine failing as a category Increasingly difficult environment to find growth and take price increases. 40
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Tasting Room and Wine Club Survey 54 Respondents 2016 Santa Barbara County Overview
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Production Level Participation 42 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Retail Bottle Price (Range ) 43 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 1st Quartile $ 30.00 2nd Quartile $ 35.50 3rd Quartile $ 45.00
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Percent of Total Revenue from DtC Sales by Region Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 44 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Percent of Total Revenue from DtC Sales 45 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Composition of Direct-to-Consumer Sales 46 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Monthly Visitors per Winery Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 47 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Number of Monthly Visitors per Winery 48 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Percent of Visitors who Purchase Wine 49 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Tasting Room Purchase (Average Excludes Other - International) Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 50 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Q1 (25th Percentile) $ 40.00 Q2 Median (50th Percentile) $ 63.00 Q3 (75th Percentile) $ 100.00
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Tasting Room Purchase 51 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 1st Quartile$ 49.50 2nd Quartile$ 59.00 3rd Quartile$ 88.00
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Tasting Room Service Style and Average Purchase by Tasting Room Service Style 52 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Change in Dollars and Cases Sold in the Tasting Room from 2014 to 2015 53 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey Cases Sold Average10% Dollars Sold Average14%
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Tasting Fee by Region (Average Excludes Other - International) Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 54 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Q1 (25th Percentile) $ 7.00 Q2 Median (50th Percentile) $ 10.00 Q3 (75th Percentile) $ 16.25 Q1 (25th Percentile) $ 15.00 Q2 Median (50th Percentile) $ 20.00 Q3 (75th Percentile) $ 40.00
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Tasting Fee 55 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Popularity of Tasting Fee Reimbursement Methods 56 Note: Respondents could select multiple options Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Tasting Room Purchase vs Average Minimum Purchase for Reimbursement (Excludes Other - International) Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 57 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Impossible/ Difficult to Find Competent Tasting Room Staff by Region Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 58 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Ability to Find Competent Tasting Room Staff – Santa Barbara 59 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Impossible/ Difficult to Find Competent Tasting Room Staff by Region Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 60 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Hourly Starting Wage of Tasting Room Staff – Santa Barbara 61 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Popularity of Incentive Methods – Santa Barbara 62 Note: Respondents could select multiple options Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Conversion* of Visitors to Wine Club by Region (Excludes Wineries <5 years old) Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 63 *Conversion Rate = Number of new wine club members in 2015 divided by the number of total visitors in 2015. Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Conversion* of Tasting Room Visitor to Wine Club 64 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey *Conversion = Number of new wine club members in 2015 divided by the number of total visitors in 2015.
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) New Wine Club Member Growth* Rate (Excludes Wineries <5 years old) 65 *New Wine Club Growth = new club members in 2015, divided by base membership level at the beginning of 2015 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Wine Club Attrition Rate* (Excludes Wineries <5 years old) 66 *Attrition Rate = Number of wine club members lost during 2015, divided by number of wine club members at the beginning of 2015 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Net Wine Club Growth* Rate (Excludes Wineries <5 years old) Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 67 *Net Wine Club Growth = new club members in 2015, less lost club members in 2015, divided by base membership level at the beginning of 2015. Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Net Wine Club Growth* Rate (Excludes Wineries <5 years old) 68 *Net Wine Club Growth = new club members in 2015, less lost club members in 2015, divided by base membership level at the beginning of 2015. Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Total Annual Revenue* per Member (Average excludes Other – International) Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 69 *Total Annual Revenue = annual wine club shipments + annual additional member purchases Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Total Annual Revenue* per Member 70 *Total Annual Revenue = annual wine club shipments + annual additional member purchases Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Length of Membership in Months by Region Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey 71 Source: Silicon Valley Bank Proprietary Research Q1 (25th Percentile) 18 months Q2 Median (50th Percentile) 24 months Q3 (75th Percentile) 36 months
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) Average Length of Membership in Months 72 Silicon Valley Bank and Wine Business Monthly – 2016 Tasting Room Survey
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SVB 2013 4:3 (WHITE) About SVB 73 About Silicon Valley Bank’s Wine Division: Silicon Valley Bank’s Wine Division specializes in commercial banking for premium wineries and vineyards and the industries that support them. SVB has the largest team of commercial bankers dedicated to the wine industry of any bank nationwide. Founded in 1994, SVB’s Wine Division has offices in Napa and Sonoma counties and serves clients focused in the fine wine producing regions of California, Oregon and Washington. By virtue of its dedication to the wine industry, Silicon Valley Bank is able to support its clients consistently through economic and growth cycles, and offer guidance on many aspects of their business, beyond traditional banking services. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of global financial services firm SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB), with SVB Analytics, SVB Capital and SVB Private Bank. More information on the company can be found at www.svb.com/winedivision.www.svb.com/winedivision Contact Us: For more information about the survey or Silicon Valley Bank’s Wine Division Rob McMillan EVP & Founder Phone 707 967 1367 rmcmillan@svb.com
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