1. Corruption in Afghanistan: Conceptual Model Dean S. Hartley III Hartley Consulting 8/21/10

2. Model Derivation The National Defense University (NDU) held a workshop on May 11-13, 2010 on Corruption in Afghanistan It brought together approximately 100 subject matter experts from government, interagency, academia, and FFRDCs. The workshop included several plenary presentations and panels and convened four working groups –Governance –Rule of Law –Economic Development –Security Among other outputs, each working group was charged with producing a conceptual model of its area This presentation –Started with those conceptual models –Melded them into one conceptual model –Extended the models to a (nearly) consistent level of granularity –Added areas that the working groups did not have time to complete

3. Plenary Experts & Working Group Definitions Dr. Arturo Munoz, Rand Mr. Mark Pyman, Transparency International Dr. David Kilcullen Mr. Brian Tomney, DoJ Congressman John Tierney Panelists –Dr. Joseph Collins, NDU –LTC Dan Moy, PRT in Paktya –Mr. Rich DeVillafrance, ICAF –LTC Steve Erickson, PRT –Ms Shireen Burki, NDU –Mr. James Bexfield, OSD –LTC Dave Sanders, CAA –Major Norb Karczewski, USMC –Mr. Jack Jackson, TRAC –LTC Al Leonardo, Skope Governance: the collective process of decision making and the process by which decisions are implemented (or not implemented) Rule of Law: Dispute resolution (e.g., person to person, person to group, group to group) Security (village level): the state at which a population perceives it is safe (i.e., protected from threats/activities of insurgent, terrorist, criminal, nationalist, ethnic, and extremist groups) Economic Development: developing stable economic situation for Afghanistan is defined by differences (e.g., urban versus rural economic needs)

4. The Problem Broadest scope: –How does the US use its power and resources to achieve its aims? –Involves defining those aims and identifying the global situation Narrower scope: –Given a situation, such as Afghanistan, how do we succeed? –Involves defining success and identifying the problems In particular: –How do we model corruption, its effects, and ways to reduce it in Afghanistan? –What do we know and what do we need to find out?

5. Attack Taliban People Insurgent Activity Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Taliban Courts De-legitimize ROL Labor Pool Taliban Accounts Supplies & Services Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Bad Govt Behavior Petty Corruption Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military Non-Taliban Populace Public “Rage” People’s Funds Supplies & Services Entity Model Organized Crime Drug Crime Common Crime Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers Loans Crime Economy Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Illilicit Funds Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Drug Economy Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Economic Status Illicit Economic Status Corruption Crime ROL National/Provincial Governance Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Support Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance Choice Process Education & Social Services Labor Pool Government Accounts Taxes Policy Supplies & Services Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Labor Pool ROL Accounts Dispute Resolution Supplies & Services NGO System External Funding Pakistan Iran, Others External Population External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Protect Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army ISAF Information Operations ISAF Security Emphasize protection Attack Re-legitimize ROL Labor Pool Security Accounts Labor Pool Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Local Funding Rule of Law Governance Security Economic Development Population Taliban Corruption External MOMs

6. MOM Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

7. Force Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

8. IO Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

9. Manpower Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

10. Goods & Services Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

11. Funds Flow Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

12. Control Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

13. Influence Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

14. Crime Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

15. Corruption Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

16. Overall Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military

17. Overall Model National/Provincial Governance Organized Crime Drug Crime Corruption In Law Enforcement Corruption In Central Authority Corruption In Public Office Corruption In Social Services Non-Taliban Populace Bad Govt Behavior Common Crime Protect Attack Village-Level Governance Urban-Level Governance Local Security Afghan National Police Afghan National Army Taliban People Public “Rage” Insurgent Activity Support Rural Govt Legitimacy National Govt Legitimacy Urban Govt Legitimacy Perceived Security Community Council Reintegration District-Level Governance ISAF Information Operations Taliban Information Operations Emphasize power Choice Process Education & Social Services NGO System ISAF Security Taliban Courts Drug Economy Stable, Growing, Licit Economy Bank Accounts Sustained Licit Growth Business Enablers Economic Enablers Right of Ownership Access to Capital Markets & Customers External Funding Loans Economic Status Crime Economy Illicit Economic Status Dispute, Detain, Trial, Jail Ownership Emphasize protection Corruption Petty Corruption Crime ROL Corrections Cops Courts Shura Jirga Attack Re-legitimize ROL De-legitimize ROL Pakistan Iran, Others Labor Pool Materials Ability to Incorporate Labor Pool Government Accounts People’s Funds Security Accounts ROL Accounts Taliban Accounts Labor Pool Illilicit Funds External Population Access to Energy Transport & Infrastructure Goods & Services Taxes Dispute Resolution Policy Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services Supplies & Services External Goods & Services Control Influence IO Crime Corrupt Influence Corrupt Acts Red Force Blue Force Manpower Flow Funds Flow Illicit Funds Goods & Services MOM Calculation Local Funding Corrupt Funds Corruption In Business Corruption In Military