1. The Mexican Economy: Stability or Stagnation? Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University San Antonio Business and Economics Society

2. Recent Economic and Political Events Economic recovery in the U.S. Economic recovery in the U.S. Mexican elections and government gridlock Mexican elections and government gridlock Mexico – U.S. relationship Mexico – U.S. relationship

3. Vital Signs Is the link alive? Is the link alive?

4. Industrial Production Index (January 2000 = 100) Source: Banco de México and FED www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov

5. Vital Signs Is the link alive? Is the link alive? GDP growth GDP growth

6. Real GDP % Change Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

7. Vital Signs Is the link alive? Is the link alive? GDP growth GDP growth Direct Foreign Investment Direct Foreign Investment

8. Foreign Direct Investment Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

9. Vital Signs Is the link alive? Is the link alive? GDP growth GDP growth Direct Foreign Investment Direct Foreign Investment Super Peso and Foreign Sector Super Peso and Foreign Sector

10. Exchange Rate Pesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

11. Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate Inflation Exchange Rate 311 226 Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

12. Merchandise Trade Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx Imports Exports

13. Family Remittances Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

14. Family Remittances Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

15. Vital Signs Is the link alive? Is the link alive? GDP growth GDP growth Direct Foreign Investment Direct Foreign Investment Super Peso and Foreign Sector Super Peso and Foreign Sector Federal Government Balance Federal Government Balance

16. Government Balance Balance / GDP Source: SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx

17. Vital Signs Is the link alive? Is the link alive? GDP growth GDP growth Direct Foreign Investment Direct Foreign Investment Super Peso and Foreign Sector Super Peso and Foreign Sector Federal Government Balance Federal Government Balance War on Inflation War on Inflation

18. Inflation Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

19. Vital Signs Is the link alive? Is the link alive? GDP growth GDP growth Direct Foreign Investment Direct Foreign Investment Super Peso and Foreign Sector Super Peso and Foreign Sector Federal Government Balance Federal Government Balance War on Inflation War on Inflation

20. Stagnation? Structural reform paralysis Structural reform paralysis Fiscal SystemFiscal System Energy SectorEnergy Sector Labor Market RegulationsLabor Market Regulations Judicial System and Rule of LawJudicial System and Rule of Law Educational ReformEducational Reform

21. Stagnation? Structural reform paralysis Structural reform paralysis Corruption scandals Corruption scandals Anemic growth Anemic growth Lack of excitement Lack of excitement

22. Stability or Stagnation? Source: crawfordfineart.com

23. Stability or Stagnation? Incredible transformation with stability Incredible transformation with stability Much work to be done Much work to be done Speed matters Speed matters

24. Source: www.mx.terra.com

25. The Mexican Economy: Stability or Stagnation? San Antonio Business and Economics Society www.trinity.edu/jgonzal1 jorge.gonzalez@trinity.edu