1. JANUARY 24, 2013 THECB 12/2012 Enrollment Forecast

2. Purpose of the Enrollment Forecast THECB 12/2012 To inform institutions what their enrollments are projected to be if they do not change their demographic and geographic drawing patterns To provide statewide baseline enrollment figures for universities, community and technical colleges, and independent institutions

3. What is included in the forecast? THECB 12/2012 Designed to reflect current trends, is intentionally conservative 5 years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county Uses TxSDC population projections Projected population by age, race/ethnicity, and county Non-resident participation factors Institutional input on local conditions

4. Updated population projections indicate slower growth than previously expected 2010 CensusChange from Prior Projection White11,397,345-44,250 Hispanic9,460,921-386,931 African-American2,886,825-38,926 Other1,400,470241,721 Total25,145,561-228,386 Source: Texas State Data Center

5. Slower population projections also dampened forecast TotalHispanicAfrican American White 2010 Census -228,386-386,931-38,926-44,250 2012-525,235-656,610-61,981-9,720 2015-1,015,351-1,094,213-97,00644,217 2020-1,936,799-1,892,585-152,678140,405 Source: Texas State Data Center

6. 2015 Enrollment Projection is marginally higher than previous forecast THECB 12/2012 Statewide, most recent five-year enrollment includes large growth until 2011 Recent decline meant the starting point for the Forecast is lower The flatness of the projection reflects enrollment demographics, population trends, and the 2010- 2012 enrollment change

7. Recent slowdown dampened projections TotalPublic Universities Public CTC ICUT 20051,166,054484,999566,071114,984 20101,423,696557,550743,252122,894 20121,437,282576,965738,981121,336 20151,456,790600,158750,211122,389 20201,579,282630,034772,463124,065

8. Current Forecast does not reach Closing the Gaps Goal THECB 12/2012 1,471,000 1,308,000

9. THECB 12/2012 Institutional targets reach Closing the Gaps goal

10. What does this do to the Closing the Gaps Targets? THECB 12/2012 TotalHispanicAfrican American White 2015-57,875-62,370-5,5292,520 If we reach current targets 6.1%6.3%5.7%

11. How are additional students funded? THECB 12/2012 Formula funding Other Appropriated funds Tuition and Fees Non-Appropriated funds

12. Increases THECB 12/2012 Higher education enrollment has increased by 540,000 students  284,000 at public 2-year colleges  162,000 at public universities Full-time Student Equivalents have increase by:  180,000 at public community colleges  130,000 at public universities Added 3 new universities, new pharmacy school, and multiple community college campuses

13. General Academic Institutions Receive Funds from Many Sources Formula Funds can be used to pay for Faculty Salaries Department Operating Expense Libraries Instructional Administration Student Services Institutional Support Research Enhancement Infrastructure Support Ineligible Expenses TRB Debt Service New construction and major repairs

14. Number of Full-Time Equivalent Students Continue to Climb THECB 12/2012

15. Universities reliance on tuition and fees has increased THECB 12/2012

16. University are shifting funding to students THECB 12/2012

17. Increases in Efficiencies at Universities THECB 12/2012 Graduation rates have increased  4 year rate – from 18% to 29.9%  6 year rate – from 49.2% to 58.4% Graduates have increased:  From 79,000 per year in FY 2000 to 125,000 per year in FY 2012

18. Formula funds are just one funding source among many for CTCs Formula Funds can be used to pay for Instruction Department operating expense Academic Support (includes library) Student services Institutional support

19. Community college student’s share of overall funding is increasing THECB 12/2012

20. Increases in Efficiencies at Community Colleges THECB 12/2012 Graduation rates have increased  3 year rate – from 10.8% to 13.3%  6 year rate – from 25.7% to 29.2% Graduates have increased:  From 37,000 per year in FY 2000 to 83,000 per year in FY 2012

21. Total Appropriations per FTSE THECB 12/2012

23. Formula Funding per FTSE THECB 12/2012

24. Tuition and Fees per FTSE THECB 12/2012