1. Decision Analysis Fall Term 2015 Marymount University School of Business Administration Professor Suydam Week 5 Advanced Excel, Decision Support Systems in Excel, DSS Case Study; Data Analysis ToolPak & Solver

2. Objectives for Week Tutorial D & Mini-Project#1 (MP1) - Discussion Discussion: Making Graphs and Working with Tool Pak Discussion: MS Excel Data Analysis Tool Pak Simple Solver Video Product Mix Problems Tutorial D – MS Excel Solver 5 -2

3. 5 -3 Out of Class In Class

4. 5 -4 Submit by COB 10/2/15: DSS 1-Page Memo

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6. 5 -6 Background: Linear programming – optimal solutions Use Excel Solver Fictional Company – CV Fitness builds exercise machines Located in Memphis Owns a small fleet: trucks (12) @ 1500 ft 3 tractor trailers (6) @ 2350 ft 3 Shipping Destinations: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles Problem: Select the optimal mix of trucks and tractor trailers to ship merchandise – lowest cost; required quantities to each store Starter file: CV FitnessCV Fitness Fitness Machineft 3 Exercise Bike12 Elliptical CT15 Treadmill22

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8. Link to Charts Index 5 -8

9. Capabilities How to Use Where to get help Most Frequently Used – Next Slide 5 -9

10. ANOVAANOVA - In statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models, and their associated procedures, in which the observed variance in a particular variable is partitioned into components attributable to different sources of variation. In its simplest form ANOVA provides a statistical test of whether or not the means of several groups are all equal, and therefore generalizes t -test to more than two groups. ANOVAs are helpful because they possess an advantage over a two-sample t-test. Doing multiple two-sample t-tests would result in an increased chance of committing a type I error. For this reason, ANOVAs are useful in comparing two, three or more means.statistics statistical modelsvariancestatistical testmeans t -testtype I error CorrelationCorrelation - In statistics, correlation and dependence are any of a broad class of statistical relationships between two or more random variables or observed data values.statisticsrandom variablesdata CovarianceCovariance – a measure of how much two variables change together. Descriptive Statistics Descriptive Statistics - statistics that describe the main features of a collection of data quantitatively. Descriptive statistics are distinguished from inferential statistics (or inductive statistics), in that descriptive statistics aim to summarize a data set quantitatively without employing a probabilistic formulation, rather than use the data to make inferences about the population that the data are thought to represent. Even when a data analysis draws its main conclusions using inferential statistics, descriptive statistics are generally also presented.datainferential statisticsinductive statisticspopulation 5 -10 *Each term definition is linked to Wikipedia definition or other similar source. Short descriptions are quoted from those sources.

11. Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing - Exponential smoothing is a technique that can be applied to time series data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation, or to make forecasts. The time series data themselves are a sequence of observations. The observed phenomenon may be an essentially random process, or it may be an orderly, but noisy, process. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights over time. time seriesrandom processnoisysimple moving average F-test: Two Sample Variances F-test: Two Sample Variances - Use the F-Test tool to test whether two population variances are different against the null hypothesis that they are not. Fourier Analysis Fourier Analysis - Fourier analysis encompasses a vast spectrum of mathematics. In the sciences and engineering, the process of decomposing a function into simpler pieces is often called Fourier analysis, while the operation of rebuilding the function from these pieces is known as Fourier synthesis. In mathematics, the term Fourier analysis often refers to the study of both operations. HistogramHistogram - a graphical representation, showing a visual impression of the distribution of data. ExercisesExercises Moving Average Moving Average - also called rolling average, rolling mean or running average; Given a series of numbers and a fixed subset size, the moving average can be obtained by first taking the average of the first subset. The fixed subset size is then shifted forward, creating a new subset of numbers, which is averaged. This process is repeated over the entire data series. 5 -11 *Each term definition is linked to Wikipedia definition or other similar source. Short descriptions are quoted from those sources.

12. Rank and Percentile Rank and Percentile - The percentile rank of a score is the percentage of scores in its frequency distribution that are the same or lower than it. frequency distribution RegressionRegression - is an approach to modeling the relationship between a scalar variable y and one or more variables denoted X. In linear regression, data are modeled using linear functions, and unknown model parameters are estimated from the data.dataparameters estimated 5 -12 *Each term definition is linked to Wikipedia definition or other similar source. Short descriptions are quoted from those sources.

13. 5 -13 Starter File

14. 5 -14 Starter File Complete formulas as shown, then setup Solver Parameters, then run solver