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Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop November 24, 2003, NYC Rudolf.

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Presentation on theme: "Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop November 24, 2003, NYC Rudolf."— Presentation transcript:

1 Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop November 24, 2003, NYC Rudolf Husar, CAPITA Washington University

2 Atmospheric Environment 33 (1999) 3435-3444 Estimating Historical Anthropogenic Global Sulfur Emission Patterns for the Period 1850-1990[1] Allen S. Lefohn a, , Janja D. Husar b, Rudolf B. Husar b[1] 

3 Global S Emission Trend, 1850-1990

4 Visibility-Population Density Comparison In India bext and population density compare well

5 AVHRR satellite optical depth data over the oceans, 1988-90

6 MODIS AOT, 2002 MODIS Team Features of Global Smoke Emissions ATSR Fire Locations 1993

7 MISR Seasonal AOT (MISR Team) Major smoke emission regions by season

8 Continental Visibility data Surface visual range observations. Over 8000 stations' throughout the six continents. The on line data files from NCDC Explored: January, 1994 through October 1997. 1997- data available

9 Extinction Coefficient Contours, km-1

10 West Central Africa Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends ?? DJFMAM JJASON MISR

11 Central Africa Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends ?? DJFMAM JJASON MISR

12 Central Africa Jun Jul Aug peak Regular, each year No trends DJFMAM JJASON MISR

13 South America DJFMAM JJASON Aug Sep peak Regular + Irregular Upward trend MISR

14 South America DJFMAM JJASON Aug Sep peak Regular + Irregular Upward trend MISR

15 Central America DJFMAM JJASON Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend MISR

16 Indochina DJFMAM JJASON Apr & Oct peak Irregular Upward trends ?? MISR

17 Indonesia Apr & Oct peak Irregular Upward trends ?? DJFMAM JJASON MISR

18 Central America DJFMAM JJASON Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend MISR

19 Central America DJFMAM JJASON Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend MISR

20 South America and Central Africa Extinction Coefficient

21 India Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends MISR

22 Conclusions? Global fossil fuel consumption trends data are available –Require historical emission factors for carbonatious aerosols Satellite data provide spatial/seasonal pattern –Limited trends information over cloud-free areas –No aerosol speciation –No info on vertical distribution Visibility data provide 30-40-year record –Surface concentration over continental areas only –No speciation –Semi quantitative

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