1. CS 416 Artificial Intelligence Lecture 16 Uncertainty Chapter 14 Lecture 16 Uncertainty Chapter 14

2. Conditional probability The probability of a given all we know is b P (a | b)P (a | b) Written as an unconditional probability The probability of a given all we know is b P (a | b)P (a | b) Written as an unconditional probability

3. Conditioning A distribution over Y can be obtained by summing out all the other variables from any joint distribution containing Y We need the full joint distribution to sum this up A distribution over Y can be obtained by summing out all the other variables from any joint distribution containing Y We need the full joint distribution to sum this up eventevidence all other variables anywhere x and e are true

4. Bayes Network Bayes Network captures the full joint distribution For comparison: Bayes Network captures the full joint distribution For comparison:

5. Example P(B | john calls, mary calls)

6. Example P(B | john calls, mary calls) To expedite, move terms outside summation P(B | john calls, mary calls) To expedite, move terms outside summation old way

7. Example Depth- first tree traversal required required

8. Example Complexity of Bayes Net Bayes Net reduces space complexityBayes Net reduces space complexity Bayes Net does not reduce time complexity for general caseBayes Net does not reduce time complexity for general case Complexity of Bayes Net Bayes Net reduces space complexityBayes Net reduces space complexity Bayes Net does not reduce time complexity for general caseBayes Net does not reduce time complexity for general case

9. Time complexity Note repeated subexpressions Dynamic Programming Note repeated subexpressions Dynamic Programming

10. Time complexity Dynamic programming Works well for polytrees (where there is at most one path between any two nodes)Works well for polytrees (where there is at most one path between any two nodes) Doesn’t work for multiply connected networksDoesn’t work for multiply connected networksClustering Try to convert multiply connected networks to polytreesTry to convert multiply connected networks to polytrees Dynamic programming Works well for polytrees (where there is at most one path between any two nodes)Works well for polytrees (where there is at most one path between any two nodes) Doesn’t work for multiply connected networksDoesn’t work for multiply connected networksClustering Try to convert multiply connected networks to polytreesTry to convert multiply connected networks to polytrees

11. Approximate Inference It’s expensive to work with the full joint distrbution… whether as a table or as a Bayes Network Is approximation good enough? Monte Carlo It’s expensive to work with the full joint distrbution… whether as a table or as a Bayes Network Is approximation good enough? Monte Carlo

12. Use samples to approximate solution Simulated annealing used Monte Carlo theories to justify why random guesses and sometimes going uphill can lead to optimalitySimulated annealing used Monte Carlo theories to justify why random guesses and sometimes going uphill can lead to optimality More samples = better approximation How many are needed?How many are needed? Where should you take the samples?Where should you take the samples? Use samples to approximate solution Simulated annealing used Monte Carlo theories to justify why random guesses and sometimes going uphill can lead to optimalitySimulated annealing used Monte Carlo theories to justify why random guesses and sometimes going uphill can lead to optimality More samples = better approximation How many are needed?How many are needed? Where should you take the samples?Where should you take the samples?

13. Prior sampling An ability to model the prior probabilities of a set of random variables

14. Approximating true distribution With enough samples, perfect modeling is possible

15. Rejection sampling Compute P(X | e) Use PriorSample (S PS ) and create N samplesUse PriorSample (S PS ) and create N samples Inspect each sample TRUTH of eInspect each sample TRUTH of e Keep a count for how many samples are consistent with eKeep a count for how many samples are consistent with e P(X | e) can be computed from count / NP(X | e) can be computed from count / N Compute P(X | e) Use PriorSample (S PS ) and create N samplesUse PriorSample (S PS ) and create N samples Inspect each sample TRUTH of eInspect each sample TRUTH of e Keep a count for how many samples are consistent with eKeep a count for how many samples are consistent with e P(X | e) can be computed from count / NP(X | e) can be computed from count / N

16. Example P(Rain | Sprinkler = true)P(Rain | Sprinkler = true) Use Bayes Net to generate 100 samplesUse Bayes Net to generate 100 samples –Suppose 73 have Sprinkler=false –Suppose 27 have Sprinkler=true  8 have Rain=true  19 have Rain=false P(Rain | Sprinkler=true) = Normalize ( ) = P(Rain | Sprinkler=true) = Normalize ( ) = P(Rain | Sprinkler = true)P(Rain | Sprinkler = true) Use Bayes Net to generate 100 samplesUse Bayes Net to generate 100 samples –Suppose 73 have Sprinkler=false –Suppose 27 have Sprinkler=true  8 have Rain=true  19 have Rain=false P(Rain | Sprinkler=true) = Normalize ( ) = P(Rain | Sprinkler=true) = Normalize ( ) =

17. Problems with rejection sampling Standard deviation of the error in probability is proportional to 1/sqrt(n), where n is the number of samples consistent with evidenceStandard deviation of the error in probability is proportional to 1/sqrt(n), where n is the number of samples consistent with evidence As problems become complex, number of samples consistent with evidence becomes small and it becomes harder to construct accurate estimatesAs problems become complex, number of samples consistent with evidence becomes small and it becomes harder to construct accurate estimates Standard deviation of the error in probability is proportional to 1/sqrt(n), where n is the number of samples consistent with evidenceStandard deviation of the error in probability is proportional to 1/sqrt(n), where n is the number of samples consistent with evidence As problems become complex, number of samples consistent with evidence becomes small and it becomes harder to construct accurate estimatesAs problems become complex, number of samples consistent with evidence becomes small and it becomes harder to construct accurate estimates

18. Likelihood weighting We only want to generate samples that are consistent with the evidence, e We’ll sample the Bayes Net, but we won’t let every random variable be sampled, some will be forced to produce a specific outputWe’ll sample the Bayes Net, but we won’t let every random variable be sampled, some will be forced to produce a specific output We only want to generate samples that are consistent with the evidence, e We’ll sample the Bayes Net, but we won’t let every random variable be sampled, some will be forced to produce a specific outputWe’ll sample the Bayes Net, but we won’t let every random variable be sampled, some will be forced to produce a specific output

19. Example P (Rain | Sprinkler=true, WetGrass=true)

20. Example P (Rain | Sprinkler=true, WetGrass=true) First, weight vector, w, set to 1.0First, weight vector, w, set to 1.0 P (Rain | Sprinkler=true, WetGrass=true) First, weight vector, w, set to 1.0First, weight vector, w, set to 1.0

21. Example Notice that weight is reduced according to how likely an evidence variable’s output is given its parents So final probability is a function of what comes from sampling the free variables while constraining the evidence variablesSo final probability is a function of what comes from sampling the free variables while constraining the evidence variables Notice that weight is reduced according to how likely an evidence variable’s output is given its parents So final probability is a function of what comes from sampling the free variables while constraining the evidence variablesSo final probability is a function of what comes from sampling the free variables while constraining the evidence variables

22. Comparing techniques In likelihood weighting, attention is paid to evidence variables before samples are collectedIn likelihood weighting, attention is paid to evidence variables before samples are collected In rejection sampling, evidence variables are considered after the samplingIn rejection sampling, evidence variables are considered after the sampling Likelihood weighting isn’t as accurate as the true posterior distribution, P(z | e) because the sampled variables ignore evidence among z’s non-ancestorsLikelihood weighting isn’t as accurate as the true posterior distribution, P(z | e) because the sampled variables ignore evidence among z’s non-ancestors In likelihood weighting, attention is paid to evidence variables before samples are collectedIn likelihood weighting, attention is paid to evidence variables before samples are collected In rejection sampling, evidence variables are considered after the samplingIn rejection sampling, evidence variables are considered after the sampling Likelihood weighting isn’t as accurate as the true posterior distribution, P(z | e) because the sampled variables ignore evidence among z’s non-ancestorsLikelihood weighting isn’t as accurate as the true posterior distribution, P(z | e) because the sampled variables ignore evidence among z’s non-ancestors

23. Likelihood weighting Uses all the samplesUses all the samples As evidence variables increase, it becomes harder to keep the weighting constant high and estimate quality dropsAs evidence variables increase, it becomes harder to keep the weighting constant high and estimate quality drops Uses all the samplesUses all the samples As evidence variables increase, it becomes harder to keep the weighting constant high and estimate quality dropsAs evidence variables increase, it becomes harder to keep the weighting constant high and estimate quality drops

24. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Imagine being in a current stateImagine being in a current state –An assignment to all the random variables The next state is selected according to random sample of one of the nonevidence variables, X iThe next state is selected according to random sample of one of the nonevidence variables, X i –Conditioned on the current values of the variables in the current state MCMC wanders around state space, flipping one variable at a time while keeping evidence variables fixedMCMC wanders around state space, flipping one variable at a time while keeping evidence variables fixed Imagine being in a current stateImagine being in a current state –An assignment to all the random variables The next state is selected according to random sample of one of the nonevidence variables, X iThe next state is selected according to random sample of one of the nonevidence variables, X i –Conditioned on the current values of the variables in the current state MCMC wanders around state space, flipping one variable at a time while keeping evidence variables fixedMCMC wanders around state space, flipping one variable at a time while keeping evidence variables fixed

25. Cool method of operation The sampling process settles into a “dynamic equilibrium” in which the long-run fraction of time spent in each state is exactly proportional to its posterior probabilityThe sampling process settles into a “dynamic equilibrium” in which the long-run fraction of time spent in each state is exactly proportional to its posterior probability Let q(x  x’) = probability of transitioning from state x to x’Let q(x  x’) = probability of transitioning from state x to x’ A Markov chain is a sequence of state transitions according to q( ) functionsA Markov chain is a sequence of state transitions according to q( ) functions  t (x) measures the probability of being in state x after t steps The sampling process settles into a “dynamic equilibrium” in which the long-run fraction of time spent in each state is exactly proportional to its posterior probabilityThe sampling process settles into a “dynamic equilibrium” in which the long-run fraction of time spent in each state is exactly proportional to its posterior probability Let q(x  x’) = probability of transitioning from state x to x’Let q(x  x’) = probability of transitioning from state x to x’ A Markov chain is a sequence of state transitions according to q( ) functionsA Markov chain is a sequence of state transitions according to q( ) functions  t (x) measures the probability of being in state x after t steps

26. Markov chains  t+1 (x) = probability of being in x after t+1 steps If  t =  t+1 we have reached a stationary distributionIf  t =  t+1 we have reached a stationary distribution  t+1 (x) = probability of being in x after t+1 steps If  t =  t+1 we have reached a stationary distributionIf  t =  t+1 we have reached a stationary distribution