1. AP STATS Take your quiz on Section 6.2 (open notes and open textbook). HW will not be collected during this time. I will hand back your tests but I can not discuss the tests as one person has not taken the test yet.

2. Agenda: Today: Section 6.3 Tomorrow: Section 6.3 again Wednesday: Drop Thursday: Review Friday: Test on Chapter 6 Over the weekend: Read all of Chapter 7.

3. Video of the Day! Peter Donnelly

4. Probability (Union) P(A or B or C) P(A or B) = Not mutually exclusive

5. Example P(A) = 0.5 P(B) = 0.7 P(A and B) = 0.3

6. Conditional Probability P(A|B) Probability of an ace given that you have 4 cards in your hand and one of them is an ace.

7. General Multiplication Rule for any 2 events P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A) Example: Slim is at the poker table. At the moment, he wants to have 2 diamonds in a row. As he sits at the tabke looking at his hand and at the upturned cards on the table, Slim sees 11 cards. Of these, 4 are diamonds. What is the probability of Slim drawing two diamonds

8. Conditional Probability Formula

9. What is the conditional probability that a grade at UNH is an A, given that it comes from a liberal arts course?

10. Bayes Theorem

11. Example 1: STD’s A MAN TESTS POSITIVE FOR A SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE. THE TEST IS 98% ACCURATE. IF THE PREVALENCE OF THE DISEASE IN SOCIETY IS 1 IN EVERY 1,000, WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE PERSON ACTUALLY HAS THE DISEASE?

12. EXAMPLE 2: BAGS SCREENED BAGS are screened at the PROVIDENCE airport. 78% of bags that contain a weapon will trigger an alarm. 14% of bags that do not contain a weapon will also trigger the alarm. If 1 out of every 1200 bags contains a weapon than what is the probability that a bag that triggers an alarm actually contains a weapon?

13. HW 6.72, 6.73, 6.74, 6.76, 6.77, 6.82