1. Surveying Cell Phone Numbers in the United States Introduction Paul J. Lavrakas, Ph.D. DC-AAPOR Workshop September 4, 2008

2. The Mitofsky-Waksberg Legacy, an Historical Perspective Brick & Tucker (2007), POQ Special Issue ◦Start of the “Telephone Survey Era” in the 1960s  Coverage, Costs, Data Quality, Speed ◦Mitofsky-Waksberg RDD Sampling  Two-stage sampling reduced costs and raised interviewer morale ◦Influenced the adoption of the operationally more attractive List-Assisted RDD sampling ◦Election Night Estimation  Early voter telephone surveying with RDD and RBS could be adapted to include the cell phone frame ◦Noncoverage, Measurement, and Small Area Estimation  Screening accuracy Cell Phone Numbers and Telephone Surveying in the US; DC-AAPOR Workshop; 09/04/082

3. Current State of Cell Phones in the U.S. Estimated Prevalence of Cell Phones in the U.S. as of mid-2008 ◦82% of U.S. households have a cell phone ◦18% of U.S. households are Cell Phone Only ◦14% of U.S. households are Cell Phone Mostly Landline Coverage of U.S. households in mid- 2008 is: ◦Approximately 80%, technically; but may well be less than 70% from a practical standpoint Those without a landline are different in many nonignorable ways from those with a landline Cell Phone Numbers and Telephone Surveying in the US; DC-AAPOR Workshop; 09/04/083

4. Past Work on Surveying U.S. Cell Phones 2003 Cell Phone Summit 2005 Cell Phone Summit 2007 AAPOR “mini-conference” 2007 Special Issue of POQ 2008 AAPOR Task Force report Stephen Blumburg John Boyle Michael Brick Mario Callegaro Howard Fienberg Anna Fleeman Donna Gillin John Hall Scott Keeter Courtney Kennedy Paul Lavrakas Michael Link Linda Piekarski Chuck Shuttles Charlotte Steeh Trevor Tompson Cell Phone Numbers and Telephone Surveying in the US; DC-AAPOR Workshop; 09/04/084

5. Surveying U.S. Cell Phones Resources ◦2005 Cell Phone Sampling Summit II (http://www.nielsenmedia.com/cellphonesummit/cellphone.html) ◦Special Issue 2007: Cell Phone Numbers and Telephone Surveys in the U.S. Public Opinion Quarterly, 71(5), 703-854. ( http://poq. oxfordjournals.org/content/vol71/issue5/index.dtl#ARTICLES) ◦AAPOR. (2008). Guidelines and Considerations for Survey Researchers When Planning and Conducting RDD and Other Telephone Surveys in the U.S. With Respondents Reached via Cell Phone Numbers. ( http://www.aapor.org/uploads/ Final_AAPOR Cell_Phone_TF_report_041208.pdf) Cell Phone Numbers and Telephone Surveying in the US; DC-AAPOR Workshop; 09/04/085

6. Surveying U.S. Cell Phones Topics to Discuss Today ◦Coverage and Frames ◦Sample Designs ◦Nonresponse and Cooperation ◦Measurement and Data Quality ◦Legal Issues ◦Safety and Other Ethical Issues ◦Weighting ◦Costs ◦Knowledge Gaps and Future Research Needs Cell Phone Numbers and Telephone Surveying in the US; DC-AAPOR Workshop; 09/04/086