1. Recent Birth Trends from a State and National Perspective: A Closer Look at Changes in the U.S. Presented by Stephanie J. Ventura, M.A. Brady E. Hamilton, Ph.D. Reproductive Statistics Branch Division of Vital Statistics, NCHS, CDC Extending Our Reach Through Partnerships June 2-6, 2013 Phoenix, Arizona 1

2. Acknowledgment Thanks to my colleague Michelle Osterman for her assistance with this presentation

3. SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.

4. Birth Trends in the US, 2002-07 Measures rose 7% from 2002 to a historic peak in 2007 Number of births hit record high of 4.3 million in 2007 Fertility rate reached 69.3 per 1,000 women, matching 1991 rate

5. Birth Trends in the US, 2007-2011 Complete reversal of previous birth trends from 2007 to 2011: Number of births down 8% Fertility rate down 9%

6. SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. 00 2011

7. SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. 2012

8. Births and fertility rates: United States, final 2005–2011 and provisional 2012 NOTES: The 2012 number of births and fertility rate are based on provisional counts for 2012. SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.

9. * Non-Hispanic SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.

10. Non-Hispanic white Hispanic Non-Hispanic black 0 0

11. * Non-Hispanic SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.

12. 20-24 years 15-19 years SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.

13. 20-24 15-19

14. Distribution of first births by age, United States, 1960 and 2011 < 20 = 37% 20-24 = 43% 30-34 5% < 20 17% 20-24 = 29% 30-34 = 18% 1960 1,090,152 births 2011 1,578,184 births SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. 35+ = 8% 35+ = 2% 25-29 = 13% 25-29 = 27%

15. Implications of current birth rates for US births in the next few years Assume birth rates by age, race and Hispanic origin remain at 2011 levels and apply rates to US Census Bureau population projections: Childbearing-age population increasing little by 2015 Births would rise from 3,958,000 in 2012 to 4,056,000 in 2015, a 2% rise

16. Births and fertility rates: United States, final 2005–2011, provisional 2012, and projected 2013-15 NOTES: The 2012 number of births and fertility rate are based on provisional counts for 2012. SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System.

17. Implications of current birth rates for US births in the next few years, continued Relatively small increase because birth rates by age for women <30 have fallen so steeply Increases largely reflect growth of population aged 30+ whose rates are rising; population <30 stable or falling Rates for Hispanic women have dropped sharply

18. But… There are risks in projecting births: Age-specific rates for prime childbearing ages could reverse downward trend and rise A big increase in births Rates for Hispanic women could fall even more….Births would fall faster Changes in economy could influence couples’ decisions on family size

19. State-specific data and analysis will give us a “heads up” to know what’s happening Early availability of birth data at the state and national levels makes the difference! Stay tuned!

20. Thank you!! More information: sventura@cdc.gov 301-458-4547 bhamilton@cdc.gov 301-458-4653