1. 20 th Annual Conference, GMU (Fairfax) June 14 2016 Najat Benbouta, Nils Ek, Pierre Bourgouin Environmental Emergency Response Section National Prediction Operations Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Canadian Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling System in Urban Environment (CUDM) Application to First Urban Dispersion International Evaluation Exercise (UDINEE) This work is funded by the CSSP, Canadian Safety and Security Program, led by Defence Canada. CRTI & CSSP

2.  Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP)  Mandates and Activities of the Environmental Emergencies Response Section (EERS)  Overview of the Canadian Urban Flow and Dispersion Modelling System (CUDM)  Application to UDINEE  Demonstration of CUDM Outline CRTI & CSSP Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion Canadian Urban Dispersion Modelling System Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Released in Urban Environment Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 2 OUTLINE:

3.  National Meteorological Centre for the production of numerical weather prediction (NWP)  24/7 basis, 365 days / year. Operations are based on a supercomputer infrastructure and telecommunications network  Includes divisions from : Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) of Environment Canada (EC) Science and Technology (S&T) of EC Shared Services (IT) 2 nd floor: Operations 3 rd floor: IT 4 th floor: Development 5 th floor: Research Global (25 km) and Regional (10 km) NWP model grids Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP) CRTI & CSSP 3 3

4. Operational Support (24/7) and preparedness. Radiological-nuclear: Federal Nuclear Emergency Plan FNEP Specialized capabilities in CBRN urban modeling (Prototype) International mandates: WMO/IAEA Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) to respond to nuclear emergencies worldwide. International Civil Aviation Organisation ICAO Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) for volcanic ash transport and dispersion modeling. Operational Support to the Comprehensive Nuclear test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Other Activities: Domestic Support to EC’s Environmental Emergencies Program (Train Derailment…) Support to Canadian Food Inspection Agency CFIA (Avian flu…) 4Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax Environmental Emergency Response Section (EERS): Mandates

5.  Chernobyl on 26 April 1986 beginning of EERS  Versatile Team: Meteorologists, Physical scientists and Computer specialists  Operational Response Events: Chemical, biological ; Radiological, Nuclear; Volcanic ash  Operational, In-house Atmospheric Dispersion Model Suite: Simple Trajectory model, Short-scale (MLCD) to medium and long-scale (MLDPn) Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models, Inverse models  Ongoing Projects: 1.Aquatic dispersion modelling of oil spills: World Class Oil Spill Response (WCOSR) Regime initiative led by Transport Canada. Development of a first-line 24/7 capacity, of aquatic transport and dispersion model, operated by EERS. Based on CCMEP new suite of high-resolution coupled atmospheric-ocean-ice prediction model. 2.Urban Dispersion Modelling: September 11 2001 - CBRNE Research and Technology Initiative (CRTI) followed by Public Safety and Security Program led by Defense Canada. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling (CUDM) 5Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax Environmental Emergency Response Section (EERS): Activities

6. Context:  Atmospheric transport and dispersion of CBRN agents in dense urban environments, identified as a need in Canada.  Existing operational non-urban mesoscale plume models have limitations for emergency response to CBRN events in complex structured urban or industrial areas.  These facts, in conjunction with increasing computer power, have promoted the development of obstacles resolving flow and dispersion models.  Under the projects from CBRNE Research and Technology Initiative (CRTI), a prototype of CUDM) was developed. CUDM System aims to fill this gap and to be used for scenario planning, operational response and post-event analysis CUDM: Prototype CRTI & CSSP 6 Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion Canadian Urban Dispersion Modelling System Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Released in Urban Environment Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax

7. Project Management: 1 Pierre Bourgouin Urban Flow Modeling Lead: 2 Dr. Fue-Sang Lien, 3 Dr. Eugene Yee 1 EER Section, Meteorological Service of Canada, EC. 2 Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc., University of Waterloo 3 Defence Research and Development Canada, Suffield. 4 J.D. Wilson & Associates, Edmonton, Alberta 1. Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec 2. University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario 3. Research & Development Defence Canada (RDDC), Suffield UrbanLS = Urban Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model ( 4 Dr. John Wilson) UrbanStream = Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model ( 2 Dr. Fue-Sang Lien) 7 Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax CRTI & CSSP Partners and Collaborators

8. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction 1 3-Steps Cascade Urban Weather 2 Buildings-aware Dispersion. 4 Mean and Turbulent Flow around Buildings. 3 Downtown Vancouver Wind at 1.5 m AGL Downtown Vancouver Concentration at 1.5 m GEM Urban at 2.5km-1km-250m CFD Suite: UrbanSTREAM UrbanLS / UrbanEU Toxic Gas, Valleyfield Mesoscale Dispersion GEM Regional at 10km Up-Scaling Dispersion 8 Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion Canadian Urban Dispersion Modelling System Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Released in Urban Environment CRTI & CSSP Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax

9. Validation:  Lack of quality assurance is not due to insufficient efforts from models developers; but mainly caused by Lack of a commonly accepted quality assurance procedure for such models and Lack of data sets that are quality checked and commonly accepted as standard for model validation purposes. 9 CRTI & CSSP Application to First Urban Dispersion International Evaluation Exercise (UDINEE) European Commission, scientific services. Europe, USA, Canada. Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion Canadian Urban Dispersion Modelling System Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Released in Urban Environment Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax

10. R1 R5 IOP9: Inlet: 5.94 m/s at 164.54 SE Release 1 10:00-10:20 am Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 10 IOP9: Release 1. CUDM Plume

11. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax11 IOP9: Inlet: 5.94 m/s at 164.54 SE Release R5 10:00-10:20 am Receptor 05 CUDM.vs. Obs IOP9: Receptor 5. CUDM.vs. OBS (OKC-JU03 )

12. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax12 IOP9: Inlet: 5.94 m/s at 164.54 SE Release R1 10:00-10:20 am Receptor 01 CUDM.vs. Obs IOP9: Receptor 1. CUDM.vs. OBS (OKC-JU03 )

13. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 13 Inlet wind: 7m/s at 40 m height and from SW at 203 degrees Day IOP4 : Stream Lines OKC-UDINEE

14. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 14 IOP4 9.7m Inlet wind: 7m/s at 40 m height and from SW at 203 degrees Day IOP4 : Stream Lines OKC- UDINEE IOP4 9.7m

15. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Stretched 20 points of grid outside the internal grid Domain: 360 x 320 x 100 Uniform Internal Grid: 320 x 280 x 76 DX = 5m, DY = 5m and DZ~2m Htop = 460 m, Hmax = 151 m Lx = 1600 m, Ly = 1400 m Pwids-15 at 40 m Inlet: Power law profile Based on wind speed of PWIDS-15 at 40 m height Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 15

16. Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System: Application to UDINEE Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax16 20 15 17 10

17. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 17 3 5 4 6 8 10 9 7 13 11 12 14 15 16 18 19 17 20 X X X Sensors 20, 15,16 Sensors 20, 7,8,9, 10 Sensors 20, 11,12,13, 14 Sensors 20, 5,6 Sensors 20, 3,4 Sensors 20, 17,18,19

18. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 18 IOP4: Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 7.09 m/s at 40 m WD 203.18 SW 20 min Av ( 1:40-2:00 pm) Results: 20 min Av (2:00 – 2:20 pm) Which representative wind should be used as Inflow for simulations ? Wind speed scalar m/s

19. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax19 IOP4: Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 7.09 m/s at 40 m WD 203.18 SW 20 min Av ( 1:40-2:00 pm) Results: 20 min Av (2:00 – 2:20 pm) Wind at PWIDS-15 on 40m height 3.75 m/s.vs. 7 m/s Undisturbed Wind Level Which representative wind should be used as Inflow for simulations ?

20. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 20 IOP4: Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 7.09 at 40 m WD 203.18 SW 20 min Av ( 1:40-2:00 pm) Results: 20 min Av (2:00 – 2:20 pm) PWIDS-01-02 represent effect of the OKC on Wind Downwind effect

21. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 21 IOP4: Day IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 7.09 at 40 m WD 203.18 SW 20 min Av ( 1:40-2:00 pm) Results: 20 min Av (2:00 – 2:20 pm) IOP8: Night IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 3.81 at 40 m WD 119.8 SW 20 min Av ( 9:40-10:00 am) Results: 20 min Av (10:00 –10:20 am) 4 4 4 4 Day.vs. Night

22. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax22 IOP4: Day IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 7.09 at 40 m WD 203.18 SW 20 min Av ( 1:40-2:00 pm) Results: 20 min Av (2:00 – 2:20 pm) IOP8: Night IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 3.81 at 40 m WD 119.8 SW 20 min Av ( 9:40-10:00 am) Results: 20 min Av (10:00 –10:20 am) 4 4 Day.vs. Night Undisturbed Wind Level

23. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax23 IOP4: Day IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 7.09 at 40 m WD 203.18 SW 20 min Av ( 1:40-2:00 pm) Results: 20 min Av (2:00 – 2:20 pm) IOP8: Night IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 3.81 at 40 m WD 119.8 SW 20 min Av ( 9:40-10:00 am) Results: 20 min Av (10:00 –10:20 am) 4 4 High building effect

24. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 24 IOP4: Day IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 7.09 at 40 m WD 203.18 SW 20 min Av ( 1:40-2:00 pm) Results: 20 min Av (2:00 – 2:20 pm) IOP8: Night IOP Inlet : PWIDS-15 WS 3.81 at 40 m WD 119.8 SW 20 min Av ( 9:40-10:00 am) Results: 20 min Av (10:00 –10:20 am) 4 4 Day.vs. Night Downwind

25. PanAm 10-26 July ParaPanAm 07-15 August Toronto, 2015 Daily runs were installed over the Toronto City. MERCI! CRTI & CSSP Demonstration of CUDM Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax25 http://eer.cmc.ec.gc.ca/ projets/CUDM/ 3D flow around and over the CN Tower, Toronto 1500 500 2500

26. CUDM: Canadian Urban Dispersion Modeling System Urban.vs. Non-Urban Montreal SW Wind prevailing Toronto SW Wind prevailing December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop. Ispra (Italy) P. 26 Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 26

27. CSSP - PCSS Wind from NE and Source is located in the wake of tall building (recirculation) Urban Signature flow December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop. Ispra (Italy) P. 27

28. Hypothetical release in Winnipeg December 15 2015. UDINEE Workshop. Ispra (Italy) P. 28 Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 28

29. 29 Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax Canadian Urban Dispersion Modelling System : Ongoing work: Vertical wind shear and convergence lines (horizontal shear) NWP Inflow hor. Shear Vert. Shear. y-z plane. NWP & CUDM Domains

30. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 30 Convergence lines flow from the NWP model Toronto summer day Three Inflow planes

31. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax 31 Toronto summer day Reverse Inflow from the NWP model

32. Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax32 Toronto summer day CUDM flow inside urban domain. x-z section South

33. 33 Canadian Urban Dispersion Modelling System Ongoing work: Building a pre-calculated flow field for major Canadian cities for a fast First Response Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax Looking for Comprehensive Validation of the urban Flow and urban Dispersion Models against observations. Looking for collaborations in urban modelling dispersion, and the best way to respond in an emergency. CRTI & CSSP

34. Conclusion :  Goal of Current Canadian Safety and Security Program Project Transition CUDM to Operational status; Tests, product development Training operational responders. 34 CRTI & CSSP The quality of model output depends not only on the accuracy of the model itself and its input. It depends also on the qualification of the person running the model. Numerical simulation is a knowledge-based activity. Appropriate knowledge can be transferred to users by recommendations concerning the proper use of the model. Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion Canadian Urban Dispersion Modelling System Tracking and Predicting Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Released in Urban Environment Najat Benbouta 20th Annual GMU Conference, June 14 2016, Fairfax

35. 20 th Annual Conference, GMU (Fairfax) June 14 2016 MERCI!