1. ReVA Regional Vulnerability Assessment Moving from monitoring status and trends to targeting risk management activities

2. What is the Question? How do we assess cumulative impacts to prioritize risk management? Who is the Client? EPA Program Offices, EPA Regional Offices, State and Local Administrators – National- to local-scale decision makers What have we done so far? Developed regional-scale statistical models that predict environmental conditions Evaluated existing and newly developed methods for the synthesis of existing spatial data Developed a web-based tool that allows decision-makers to ask multiple assessment questions Developed a future scenario that incorporates major drivers of ecological change so that potential changes can be assessed

3. Integrated Science for Ecosystem Challenges (ISEC) – Strategic Priorities Synthesize existing information Improve understanding of effects of multiple stresses Improve assessments and forecasts under alternative policy and management options

4. ReVA’s Working Hypotheses Spatial connections (upstream-downstream, transportation network, shortest air distance) are important in determining the total ramifications of local human activities. Therefore, cumulative ecological condition over large regions is related to large scale patterns as well as small scale decisions. Spatial variability reduces the efficiency of bottom up approaches (and increases the efficiency of top down approaches) when assessing ecological condition over large regions. Sustainability can only be achieved by maintaining regional variability. Some areas must be reserved to maintain regional biodiversity. Some areas are vulnerable to human disturbance.

5. ReVA’s Research Partnerships All of ORD’s Labs and Centers Other Federal Agencies – USGS, USFS, TVA Academia – Florida Atlantic University, Penn State, University of Maryland, Duke University, North Carolina State University, University of NC - Charlotte

6. ReVA’s Client Partnerships EPA Program Offices – Office of Air, Office of Water, Office of Environmental Information EPA Regional Offices: the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Mid-West State government agencies – Maryland, and Pennsylvania Cross-jurisdictional alliances – North and South Carolina Councils of Government Feedback Demonstrations Tech transfer

7. ReVA is… Risk assessment research – comparative, cumulative, multi-scale Visualizing spatial patterns of condition and impact Identifying current and future environmental vulnerabilities Projecting potential impacts from major drivers of ecological change Enabling trade-off analyses through “what if” scenarios Informing diagnosis of current conditions Linking environmental health with economic and human health Working directly with clients

8. ReVA Supports Research on: New Indicators New Spatial Models Integration Methods Socio-Economics Decision Tools Quantifying Error and Uncertainty Issues of Scale Information Technology

9. ReVA’s Decision-Support Tools Multiple clients, multiple approaches, multiple tools 4 Prototype tools under development Both web-based and PC-based New tools and improved existing tools ReVA’s Web-based Decision-Support System ATtILLA

10. ReVA is estimating condition for every point on the map using existing data

11. ReVA synthesizes environmental data and model results to inform decision-making High Vulnerability Low Vulnerability Providing indices of relative condition and vulnerability

12. Evaluating Current Problems; Projecting Future Problems Despite compliance with environmental regulations, biological populations are declining. Major drivers of change include: Land use change Resource extractions Pollutions and pollutants Exotic invasive species Climate change

13. Future Scenarios – Drivers of Change (Futures, Part 1) Land use change – Bird migration scenarios Groundwater vulnerability Landscape indicators N, P, and sediment loadings Mining – permitted areas Risk of timber harvest “Clear Skies” scenarios for ozone, PM, N and S Human population demographics/ quality of life indicators Risk of NIS (with/without climate change) [ Projected change in forest species (climate change) – future work ] Enabling insights into cumulative/aggregate impacts

14. Applying ReVA Approach and Information to Decision-making (Futures, part 2) Evaluating alternative “Smart Growth” strategies Identifying where to set aside lands for conservation Assessing impacts of alternative incentives for pollution prevention Investigating solutions for “cross boundary” issues associated with air and water quality (e.g. cross-media trading) Estimating impacts of new road development (water quality, air quality, quality of life) Tracking progress/performance

15. ReVA has developed models that allow us to evaluate how restoration might improve stream conditions Evaluating Alternative Risk Management Options: Linking Nutrient Loadings with Restoration Potential Current Loadings 10% increase in riparian forest 10% decrease in riparian forest Scenario with restoration Scenario with continued development

16. Turning Spatial Data into Information for Decision Makers Web-based integration and visualization Data diagnostics and data preparation Integration of data in selectable subgroups Weighting in support of multi-criteria decision making Data access (summarized by reporting unit)

17. How are Decisions Made to Reduce Risk for Vulnerable Ecosystems? Multiple Criteria Stakeholder Input, Politics, Economics, Feasibility, Scientific Understanding Evaluation of Trade-offs Costs/ Benefits of Alternatives 6 8

18. What Makes an Ecosystem “Vulnerable”? Condition Pristine, Good, Stressed, Degraded Sustainability f (ecosystem sensitivity; stressors affecting) Value to Society Aesthetics, Economic Opportunities, Goods and Services What Drives Risk Management Decisions? Feasibility, Clear Options, Economics What works where?, Range of method applicability Need to Address Multiple Assessment Questions

19. Current Uses of Approaches and Tools R3 – Strategic Planning – Vulnerable populations, Watershed health, Responsible development - outreach and partnerships MD DNR, PA DEP, Baltimore County – outreach, identification of priority areas for protection, alternative scenarios of development SEQL project – alternative scenarios of development, opportunities for cross-media trading, focus on quality of life

20. Future Work in ReVA Water supply modeling with USGS – Mid Atlantic (Region 3) and SEQL Initiate work in SE (Region 4) – pilot on vulnerability of human and wildlife populations to air toxics Pilot work in Midwest (Region 5)– 1) decision support for hazardous wastes mitigation – Net Environmental Benefits Assessment; and 2) IT research – webservices in support of compliance reporting and analysis for state water data

21. Research Issues/Needs Indicator/ Model Domains of Scale Changing Reporting Units (Reaggregation of data, model results) Quantifying error and uncertainty Feedbacks and interactions

22. Research Opportunities Nested broad – to fine –scale applications (e.g. Baltimore Co., MD, Mid- Atlantic; SEQL, Southeast) New methods to interpolate (e.g. Bayesian methods) Estimating error

23. ReVA Outcomes Decisions incorporate ReVA approach and information Client partnerships at regional, state, and local levels Demonstrations of application of approach and information at different scales Multiple clients – Multiple decision support tools Easy access to data and tools

24. ReVA as a Screening Tool  Provides an early warning  Identifies where we need to look closer  Puts issues in perspective  Identifies opportunities  Identifies future issues  Targets use of limited resources