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Epidemics Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade Münster, 2013
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Epidemic “In epidemiology, an epidemic occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience.”
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Epidemic dynamics (SIR model)
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Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2 dt = 1 week Run time = 30 weeks Duration of an infection: 2 weeks Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people 25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection
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Epidemic dynamics (SIR model) Stocks: susceptible, infected, and recovered Initial stocks: susceptible = 9998, infected = 2 dt = 1 week Run time = 30 weeks Duration of an infection: 2 weeks Each infected comes into contact 6 with other people (but can only infect the susceptible ones) 25% of the contacts are enough to cause infection
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Some scenarios Duration of the infection: 2, 4, 8 weeks Contacts that cause infection: 50%, 25%, 12.5% If the number of contacts is cut by half when the infections reach 2000 or 1000 due to an educational campaign.
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