1. The impact of the crisis on young workers in Europe Gianni Rosas ILO Youth Employment Programme PERC Youth Conference Brussels, 9 July 2009

2. This presentation The European youth labour market before the crisis The impact of the crisis on young workers in Europe Some issues for discussion Ongoing work of the ILO

3. Youth labour market trends in Europe prior to the crisis (1) The situation of young people in Europe has been deteriorating even prior to the onset of the crisis. The data on the youth labour market for the period 2000-2008 show: Decline of youth labour force participation rates (-2.4% in EU countries and -1.3 in Eastern Europe); Decrease of employment-to-population ratios (-2.5% in industrialized countries and -2% in Eastern Europe); and Increase of youth unemployment rates (+0.5% in EU and +2.3% in Eastern Europe); Relative disadvantage of young workers (i.e. youth-to-adult unemployment ratios ranging from 2.8 for the EU to 3 for Eastern Europe).

4. Youth labour market trends in Europe prior to the crisis (2) The most salient aspect of the decent work deficits of young people in Europe is precariousness in the form of temporary employment: Around 38 per cent of young workers in the European Union are in temporary work (60% of them because they could not find permanents jobs); In South Eastern Europe the share of young workers in temporary work is 41 per cent; The incidence of part-time work (as percentage of employment) among young people in the EU is 21.3% and around 16% in South and Eastern Europe.

5. Youth labour market trends in Europe prior to the crisis (3) But... the countries of Central, South-East Europe and the CIS face the additional burden of large numbers of young workers being over-represented in the informal economy, or under- employed and employed as contributing (unpaid) family workers: In SEE countries about 44 per cent of young workers are informally employed; Between one third and one fourth of part-time young workers in SEE countries do so involuntary (under-employment) Young people are 3 times more likely to be engaged in family work than adults (21 per cent per cent compared to 6 per cent).

6. Youth labour market in Europe and the crisis (1) The projected increase in global unemployment among youth between 2008 and 2009 is mainly driven by the large increase projected in the youth unemployment rates in developed economies, the European Union, countries in Central and South Eastern Europe and CIS, namely: In developed economies and the European Union, the projected increase is between 2.9 to 5.6 percentage points; and In Central and South Eastern Europe and the CIS the projected increase is between 3.6 and 9.8 percentage points.

7. Decreasing youth employment rates The youth labour market in Europe and the crisis (2) Relative change in the employment rate in selected countries Q1 2009 vs. Q4 2008 Y>ABESINLDKDEEENOESITSELVLTUKPTAT 15-24-2.4-4.4-0.9-1.6-2.1-7.4-3.8-2.3-1.8-1.2-2-3.9-1.5-1.6-1.5 25-64-0.2-1.1-0.1-1.6-0.7-4.1-0.3-2-0.5-0.6-1.6-2.3-0.3-0.9 A>YHUBGCZROCYSKFIGR 15-24-1.80-0.301.3-1.3-0.60.6 25-64-0.4-1.7-1.1-0.9-0.6-1.9-1.7-0.7 Source: Own elaboration from Eurostat

8. Increasing youth unemployment rates The youth labour market in Europe and the crisis (3) Relative change in the unemployment rate in selected countries. Q1 2009 vs. Q4 2008 Y>ABEBGCZDKDEGRESITUKLVHU % Change in Youth Unemployment 3.92.22.31.41.81.744.31.56.84.8 % Change in Adult Unemployment 0.9 1.4 0.91.12.30.20.72.21.2 NLPTROSISKFISE % Change in Youth Unemployment 12.5 3.24.61.22.4 % Change in Adult Unemployment 0.31.20.70.51.41.10.7 Source: Own Elaboration on Eurostat data

9. Youth and adult temporary work in Europe (2008 ca.) The youth labour market in Europe and the crisis Source:ILO calculations on 2008LFS data (Data for BiH, FYR Macedonia and SRB are from the 2006LFS).

10. Increasing temporary work for youth The youth labour market in Europe and the crisis. Change in the ratio of temporary employment over total employment by age groups (in percentage): Q1 2009 vs. Q4 2008. Y>A BEROCZBGDEFISEITCYNLUK Young workers 3.30.5101.23.31.41.32.61.10.6 Adult workers00.10.5-0.7-0.10.60.5-0.7-1.5-0.20.3 A≥YPTDKHUSKNOSIGRESAT Young workers -0.4-3.1-1.4-1.1-4.7-1.1-1.6-0.2 Adult workers-0.60.7-0.6-0.1-0.2-0.60-1.6-0.2 Source: Own Elaboration on Eurostat data

11. Is precarious employment a stepping stone or a dead end for young workers? Youth employment is highly affected by the economic cycle (last to be hired and first to be fired). What can be done to protect young workers, especially the most vulnerable, in the current crisis? What type of youth employment measures are being taken through the recovery packages adopted in your countries? Are these measures also focusing on the quality of youth employment? Some issues for discussion (1)

12. What can the European movement of young trade unionist do to: – Lobby policy reforms and measures to protect young workers in precarious employment? – extend outreach to young workers in precarious employment? – Adapt the strategies and tools developed by the global and regional trade unions’ networks? How can the ILO assist European trade unions in their endeavours to promote decent work for young persons? Some issues for discussion (2)

13. Assessment of employment impact of the crisis and policy measures, including those focusing on youth employment, in 51 countries across the globe Regional studies to analyse the impact of the crisis on youth employment A new tool to measure young people’s transition to decent work that takes account of both quantity and quality of employment Development of a tool for promoting young people’s rights at work (for Eastern European countries) Ongoing work of the ILO

14. Framework to measure youth transitions to decent work Traditional labour market indicators Indicators of the transition from school to work Inactivity rates Transition not Started In school Inactive (unwilling and/or unavailable for work) Unemployment rate Unemployment ratio In transition In-school, but seeking work Discouraged workers Unemployed Workers with decent work deficits Workers wishing to change jobs to improve working conditions Employment rate Employment ratio Transition Completed Employed in decent work

15. Youth Employment Programme International Labour Office 4, routes des Morillons 1211 Geneva - CH Email: youth@ilo.org web: www.ilo.org/youth