1. Sea A SIA CHARTERERS’ FORUM Singapore 2 April 2007 Peter M. Swift INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington

2. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Fleet development Chartering today Future demand ?

3. Tanker fleet development m dwt No Assumptions for period until 2009: Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007 Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)

4. Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt)

5. Demolition: slowed in recent years (mdwt) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 84 85 86878889 90 91929394 95 96979899 00 0102030405 06 Others/NK Bangladesh Pakistan India Taiwan Korea China

6. Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt) Years 6 8 10 12 14 16 1970197319761979198219851988199119941997200020032006

7. Double-hull percentage rising steadily %

8. (Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out - an “uncertainty” post 2010 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010. DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 200320042005 2006 200720082009 2010 2011201220132014 2015 MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 OPA90

9. Conversions to Double Hull a further “uncertainty” Built10-30, 000 dwt 30-52, 000 dwt 60-72, 000 dwt 90-113, 000 dwt (incl 6 obos) 120-148, 000dwt VLCCsTOTAL 1970s 320000 5 1980- 1984 8369100 54 1986- 1989 11120331 30 1990- 1998 2911822 34 TOTAL 2459102253123

10. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Chartering today

11. Oil import by VLCCs - share of double hull Source : Fearnleys 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 199819992000200120022003200420052006 EuropeUS Atlantic Far EastOthers % Average

12. Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

13. Oil import by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

14. Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

15. Oil export by Aframaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

16. Period contracts of one year and above No. YearNo. Average age Average period 20001449.51.37 20012188.52.39 20022217.31.87 20031088.71.96 20041268.72.44 20051605.12.90 20061986.22.60 *2007705.32.30 *Projection 2007: 305 contracts Source: INTERTAKO

17. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Future demand ?

18. India and China – growth markets

19. Asia leads tanker demand rise

20. CHARTERERS’ FORUM OIL SHIPPING Tonnage Supply & Demand Forecasts Average Annual Growth 2007-2009 Source: McQuilling Brokerage Partners SupplyDemand VLCC9.2%3.3% Suezmax7.3%2.1% Aframax9.6%0.5% Coated Aframax4.4%1.3%

21. THANK YOU For more information, please visit: www.intertanko.com www.shippingfacts.com www.maritimefoundation.com INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington