1. 11 Richard M. Scheffler, PhD Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and Public Policy Director, Global Center for Health Economics and Policy Research University of California, Berkeley Forecasting Framework Lecture - B1

2. 22 Forecasting Workforce Framework Basic needs-based model I. Population forecast = f(time) II. Need for medical visits = f(population) III Medical visits = f(physician productivity) IV. Total physicians needed = f(time, population, medical visits, physician productivity)

3. 33 V 2015 N 2015 P 2015 N 2005 2005 V 2005 P 2005 TimeVisits Physicians Population 20152025 Population Projection Utilization of Physician Services Productivity of Doctors Supply of Physicians Demand for Physicians Shortage (demand > supply) Surplus (supply > demand) IV III I II

4. 44 V 2015 N2 2015 P 2015 N 2005 2005 V 2005 P 2005 TimeVisits Physicians Population 20152025 Population Projection Utilization of Physician Services Productivity of Doctors Supply of Physicians Demand for Physicians Shortage (demand > supply) IV III I II Surplus (supply > demand) A1A1 A2A2 B1B1 B2B2 N1 2015

5. 5 The isoquant curve shows the different skill mixes that can produce the same level of output

6. 6 The red line is the budget constraint

7. 7 Point “A” is the optimal skill mix

8. 88 Questions?