1. Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region
Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6)
1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain
2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France
3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France
4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, USA
5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain
6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

2. Mediterranean climate
Mediterranean region = one of the most sensitive to climage change in terms of warming and drying (Mariotti et al. 2008) --> Source of predictability
During the 20th century, decadal variability has modulated the climate change signal in the Mediterranean region (Mariotti and Dell’Aquila, 2012)
To which extent will natural variability enhance or reduce externally-forced changes and for how long?

3. AMV skill
From García-Serrano et al. (2013), AMV = North Atlantic mean SST (80W-0, 0-60N) - global mean SST (60S-60N)
Skill in predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is enhanced by initialization

4. AMO-related predictability
Observational AMO-temperature correlation patterns
DJF
JJA
From Mariotti and Dell’Aquila (2012)
Strong connection between summer temperatures and AMO, weaker link in winter

5. Skill in annual temperature from CMIP5 Init – NoInit after detrend
Forecast years 2-5
Forecast years 6-9
ACC Init
Init – NoInit after detrend

6. Correlation annual temperature-AMV from CMIP5
Forecast years 2-5
Forecast years 6-9
Observations
NoInit - Init