1. Slide | 1 Towards Assessment-based National Policy Dialogues: process and tools 1 What’s in place? (Mapping national social protection systems) 2. What’s missing? Assess the coverage gap & evaluate effectiveness and efficiency of existing schemes and national social protection system 5. What is feasible? Tools  Survey of institutions and organizations providing social protection  ILO Social Security Inquiry  Performance indicators  Social Protection Household Surveys modules 3. What fiscal space needed for policy reforms? (costing) and 4. What impacts reforms may have? (assessing poverty, labour market and economic impacts) Simulation of future costs and impacts of policy reforms Diagnostic of current situation… Tools  Costs: Actuarial valuations Social budgeting  Simulating impacts Poverty impact assessments Dynamic Social Accounting Matrix (DySAM) Tools  Social Protection Expenditure and Performance Reviews and Social Budgets(SPERs)  Rapid Assessment Protocols (RAPs)  Social Employment and Social Protection Expenditure and Impact Assessments

2. Slide | 2 Tools for comprehensive monitoring and evaluation of national social protection systems: from mapping to simulation of future costs & impacts of policy reforms Rapid Assessment Protocols (RAPs) ILO Social Security Inquiry Social Protection Expenditure & Performance Reviews and Social Budgets (SPERs) ILO Employment and Social Protection Expenditure, Policy and Impact Assessments

3. Slide | 3 PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF COSTS AND IMPACTS ESTIMATE THE COSTS and the IMPACTS How much would it cost to introduce benefits that ensure to fills the deficit? What are the impacts on poverty?  DIAGNOSTIC - Existing schemes/programmes, indicators (coverage, level of benefit) -Planned programmes / benefits ( National social protection strategy ) -Needs  COMPARE WIHT THE FLOOR GUARANTEES -Basic income security for children, persons in active age, older persons -Access to health cares for all  IDENTIFY AND ASSESS GAPS and DEFINE OPTIONS for the extension: Policy, statutory and implementation gaps and options for extension ASSESSMENT MATRIX  NATIONAL DIALOGUE RAPs | Diagnostic, assessment of costs and analysis of impacts FEASIBILITY STUDIES  DESIGN OF NEW SCHEMES/PROGRAMMES: Define priorities

4. Slide | 4 SPF objectives Existing social protection provisions National strategy Gaps Actors involved Priorities Policy gaps Imple- mentation gaps Health Children Active age Older persons Rapid assessment matrix Social protection floor: guarantees and objectives Describe the present and planned social protection situation, taking into account SP strategy objectives Identify design and implementation gaps Identify and share responsibility and activity among actors Priority policy options to be decided through national dialogue on assessment results

5. Slide | 5 ILO Social Security Inquiry as a tool for mapping social protection systems Covers both statutory schemes and some non-statutory schemes Covers both private and public schemes Type of data | From administrative sources: institutions which administer the scheme. Household survey data if available may be used as well Functions covered Old age; disability; survivors; sickness and health; unemployment; employment injury & occupational disease; family/children, and maternity, housing; other income support and assistance (n.e.c.) /social exclusion. Can be expanded Scope of data & indicators

6. Slide | 6 Screen shots| A short guided tour through the inquiry Levels of information & sources  What?  Economic & financial information  Population & Employment Used as denominator for indicators  Social security expenditure & revenue (IMF, ESSPROS)  Sources  International data sources  National sources National level  SSI Core data SSI Core data  Social security institutions | individual scheme data Social security institutions | individual scheme data  Data entry online Data entry online Scheme level Automatic calculation of national aggregate indicators

7. Slide | 7 Step 1 | Inventory of social security schemes & definition of each scheme Screen shots | A “guided tour in the inquiry” Thailand - An Inventory of schemes Step 2 | Individual scheme information Qualitative & Quantitative First part | Textual information & direct links Description of the scheme incl. information from SSPTW Second part | Quantitative information at the scheme level Target group, Affiliated | active contributors, expenditure & revenue Step 3 | Inventory of benefits provided by the scheme & data collection (beneficiaries, expenditure and benefit level

8. Slide | 8 Benefit level | Thailand – Unemployment benefit: data collected 1. | Definition of benefit: function, periodicity, cash or in-kind, means tested of not A benefit is defined by: The function covered: old age, survivors, maternity, etc. Basic or supplementary benefit The periodicity: (periodic or not) The type: cash or in kind Beneficiaries: individuals or households Means-tested or not 2. | Expenditure at the benefit level 3. | Beneficiaries, if possible by sex & age group

9. Slide | 9 What for? | Indicators at the national level Systematic calculation of a set of aggregate indicators  Expenditure indicators (30 indicators in total), such as Total social protection expenditure as a percentage of GDP Expenditure by branch  Coverage indicators by function (or branch) – around 10 indicators per branch Protection indicators (contributors and affiliated), such as: Trends in the number of active contributors in proportion of the working age (or economically active population) by function Recipients indicators (beneficiaries) Trends in the number of beneficiaries for a given contingency (e.g. Old age pensioners — at all ages or above retirement age) as a proportion of elderly population (%) Benefit level indicators under development  Depending on data availability and type of indicators ● Trends from 2000 to 2010 (especially for old age & unemployment) ● Results for total and by sex Coverage indicators

10. Slide | 10 Indicators section View all indicators for this country Results| Aggregate indicators online Option 1 All indicators for a given country China | View all available indicators (2000 to 2008) Option 2 Consultation of All countries for a given indicator: Share of unemployed receiving unemployment benefits From the entry page | Consult maps by indicator

11. Slide | 11 11 SPER | Social Protection Expenditure and Performance Reviews and Social Budgets Provide institutional and statistical picture of the national social protection system Provide statistical analysis of the costs and financing sources Analyse the social protection needs and priorities, existing extent of coverage and coverage gaps Identify information gaps and Recommend measures to improve availability and quality of the required statistical data and other information Measure the performance in terms of effectiveness, equity and efficiency Example of countries: Ukraine, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Senegal, Zambia, Tanzania, South Africa

12. Slide | 12 Social budgeting | monitoring past, current and future social protection finances Where money goes now and where do resources come from? Expenditure/revenue accounts for all existing social protection schemes What resources are needed in the future to finance existing schemes? How much it will cost in short, medium, longer term to finance new planned or reformed schemes?

13. Slide | 13 Social budgeting | monitoring past, current and future social protection finances (2) Comprehensive and detailed account of a country's revenue and expenditure earmarked for social protection Comprehensive and detailed assessment of how much a country does spend on social protection Assessment of how much, within a country's social budget, is allocated to different programs The medium-term evolution of all income and expenditure in the context of the current provisions (status quo) Simulation of the sensitivity of the system to alternative demographic and economic scenarios and impacts of policy reforms

14. Slide | 14 14 ILO Employment and Social Protection Expenditure, Policy and Impact Assessments Consolidated application of modelling tools in the fields of employment, social protection and social dialogue to deliver an analysis of national policies in a way that recognizes the comprehensive public finance context. Review social protection and employment policies related to Social transfers, employment programmes and public investments and their impact on target groups of workers & households with special emphasis also to poverty and income distribution effects. Evaluate effectiveness of current policies through combined application of the dynamic social accounting matrix with actuarial and social budgeting performance assessments Simulate and compare future policy options to assist policy decisions on the optimal policy mix and the necessary fiscal space.

15. Slide | 15 Pre-requisite: in addition to existing surveys including questions on social protection, development of a module of questions to be included in regular household surveys (LFS, HBS etc.) Household survey social protection modules Are you yourself covered by any of the following schemes? Does the scheme also cover your family? To be adapted to national circumstances Social security system Public Service Pension scheme Parastatal Pension Fund Government & Local Authorities Employees Provident Fund Medical Services and Social Welfare Medical care supported by an employer Commercial insurance Community-based insurance scheme  Have you ever received any benefit from one of these schemes?  Which benefits are the schemes that are covering you, meant to provide? (multiple answers) Medical care – sickness, injury Medical care – maternity Sickness Work injury/ occupational disease benefits Invalidity benefits Old-age pension Funeral costs Survivor’s benefits Maternity benefits Unemployment benefits Education for family members  Coverage related questions Implemented in countries such as Cape Vert, in the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka…..

16. Slide | 16 Household survey social protection modules (2)  During the last twelve months, has one, or several of the events listed below seriously affected your household’s ability to pay the most necessary expenses? To be adapted to national circumstances Birth of a child (and pregnancy) Hospitalization of income earning member | other member of the family Other medical costs Death of income earning member | other member of the household Permanent disability or illness Temporary disability Loss of job/employment/work Retirement from employment Natural disaster Business failure Harvest failure Loss or destruction of property Other (Specify)  Risks and needs  How did the household cope with the financial effects of these events? To be adapted to national circumstances Spent savings Sold machine, equipment or other asset used to generate income Sold harvest in advance Sold other asset Took out mortgage on asset or house Borrowed money from a bank Borrowed money from money lenders Borrowed money from other source Worked longer hours Sent children to work Received support from state/ government /public entity Received support from family or friends Received support from church, NGO, or other non- public actors Received support from cooperatives or professional associations Other (Specify)  Coping mechanisms

17. Slide | 17 ILO Actuarial Services Actuaries judge whether the vision of the future development which underlies all the assumptions is consistent and realistic Actuaries have to alert the government and the governors of individual social security schemes to inconsistencies and incompatibilities in national social protection policies The actuarial valuations of any social protection reform answers one of the following two questions: How much protection can be provided with a given level of financial resources? How much financial resources are necessary to provide a given level of protection? ILO, with its network of actuaries, provides actuarial services since decades to many social security schemes around the world as well as helps to build national capacities for actuarial analysis

18. Slide | 18 18  Gess and Statistics | Useful links @ World social security report, statistics & indicators, etc. ILO databases The social security inquiry Public access | Admin | More… Public accessAdminMore… Non-ILO databases

19. Slide | 19 GESS | Social protection in regular national household surveys: questionnaires, questions and links to resources Information organized by  region  country Access to main resources  questionnaires  survey reports  microdata when available  webspace dedicated to the survey  updated on a regular basis