1. Dr Fraser Cameron Director, EU Russia Centre Director, EU-China Academic Network

2. A Changing World Global financial crisis is having significant impact on international power balance US weakened – likely to decrease its global footprint China rising – overtakes Japan this year, and US by 2030? G20, BRICs, G2, G3 – reform of IFIs Will the EU be more coherent?

3. EU-China History Rapid development since 1995 Negotiations on new PCA (good progress on political side, little progress on trade side) Desire to work together in global arena But problems of distance and asymmetry of political systems. Very different actors. China powerful unitary state - EU a post-modern system, sharing sovereignty.

4. Chinese Views View EU as major trade and economic power. But political weakness means Beijing plays divide and rule with member states EU a difficult partner. Dec 2008 postponement of summit – led to re-think relations with EU Wen Jiabo in Prague mentioned importance of credibility, trust, sincerity, faith Economic crisis missed opportunity

5. EU papers Commission paper 2006 – start to regard China as partner Trade and investment 2006 East Asia policy guidelines 2007 – concerns about China Academic and think tank debate – critical of EU approach

6. Policy debate in China How important is EU? How to define bilateral relations – strategic partner or normal partner? Complicated by lack of understanding and misperceptions Many believe there is an EU strategy regarding the Dalai Lama

7. European Views China one of five strategic partners. Seeking to transform China – flawed assumption? Mixed views of China between member states and within member states Some worried at trade/job implications. But most seeking trade and investment Some willing to drop arms embargo and grant MES – most not. Rivals for energy, natural resources

8. Views of each other China sees itself as regional power with gradual global power ambitions. Views EU as global economic power but weak pol/mil power EU views China as global pol/econ power. Views itself as global economic and potential political power Each over-estimates other Reality is US still only real superpower

9. New PCA Very difficult – comprehensive approach Arms embargo(not about selling arms), market economy (only real negotiating card) – both unlikely to change. EU seeking improved market access EU public opinion difficult. China poor at communicating although public diplomacy improving

10. Current situation Both EU and China suffering from global economic crisis, although China still growing at 8.5% (new global locomotive) China worried at situation in US and impact on China (Treasury bonds, export market) China needs continuing access to EU market, largest in world Summit 30 Nov: financial crisis and climate change

11. The Machinery of Cooperation Annual summits Twice a year foreign ministers Ditto – senior officials discuss foreign policy and other topics, e.g. proliferation, human rights, Africa PCA machinery – many (35) dialogues and working groups e.g. science and technology, customs cooperation, nuclear research, tourism, energy, environment, agriculture, intellectual property rights, space, science, civil aviation

12. Cooperation and Conflict UNSC Reform – China wishes to retain status quo - Asian top dog v Japan and India. Tensions in relations with India (border); relations with Japan improving Multilateralism – in theory strong supporter but no clear ideas about how to reform IFIs. Suspicious of RTP. Pleased to be in G20 – no talk about G2. North Korea – China has most influence on Pyongyang, but also limited. Does not see role for EU in six party talks

13. Cooperation and Conflict Africa – China not really interested in EU’s agenda of good governance and human rights. But worried at its image as a blocking power in UNSC over Zimbabwe or Sudan Afghanistan – China opposed to Taliban taking over but reluctant to support US Iran – does not share EU/US concerns about a nuclear Iran, but does not wish to block UNSC consensus. Energy interests important.

14. Cooperation and Conflict Human rights – linked to Tibet and internal situation. China angered at alleged EU support for Dalai Lama. Increased authoritarianism. Leadership in favour of limited democracy and partial rule of law (ultimately CCP decides) Arms embargo – EU member states divided – not about selling arms; China skilful at playing divide and rule – offering trade carrots for political support

15. Cooperation and Conflict Climate change – EU constantly pressing China but Beijing asks who pays? Environment and sustainable development – growing recognition of importance, and EU’s positive role Desire to learn from EU in tackling social and regional issues Impressed by success of euro, and enlargement Had hoped EU would be more independent of US Central Asia – SCO – likely rivalry with Russia

16. Next steps NPT – should discuss Afghanistan – how to involve? Asian Regional Forum – useful discussion space Non traditional security issues, e.g. space, terrorism, energy, cyber warfare - what interlocutors? Peacekeeping, crisis management – start discussion Reform of multilateral institutions - ditto

17. Outlook Differences remain ; role of state, individual freedoms, security environments (Taiwan?) Common interests suggest pragmatic cooperation on global threats and challenges, e.g. counter piracy Important to try and establish agreed rules-based international system How will Sino-US relations develop? Likely that China will continue to rise – but will it always be peaceful and harmonious development?

18. Conclusion EU and China condemned to be partners – new agreement or not: growing interdependence : trade, climate, energy, peacekeeping, Africa, G20 Considerable mutual ignorance and misperceptions. But large growth in tourism – over one million Chinese visited Europe in 2008. Much depends on how EU now develops as a coherent actor under Lisbon Treaty