1. ESA Climate Change Initiative Olivier Arino Santa Rosa, 28/05/2009

2. Tracking of Hammerhead sharks (background SST map)

3. Working with Global Change Communities

4. DUE GlobSeries branding

5. Climate Change Initiative Rationale

6. Two climate action paths CEOS IP for GEOSS in 2007GEOSS 10-year plan in 2005 CEOS response 2006GCOS-107 in 2006GCOS-92 in 2004GCOS-82 in 2003

7. ECV feedback loops Re-processing ex archive (e.g. calibration) ECV generation (e.g. validation & bias) ECV assimilation & assessment Education & Awareness 6 year programme for 2 cycles FEEDBACK LOOP: Long Term Archiving Programmes Multi-mission infrastructure International Climate Programmes EC & MS R&D Programmes IPCC Process, UNFCCC INPUT FROM OUTPUT TO “Deliver” “Show” “Gather” “Exploit”

8. International Coordination UNFCCC which coordinates the interests and decisions of its Parties on Climate Policy, GCOS which represents the scientific and technical requirements of the Global Climate Observing System on behalf of UNFCCC, CEOS which serves as a focal point for Earth Observation related activities of Space Agencies, Individual Partner Space Agencies with whom ESA cooperates bilaterally, International Climate Research Programmes, which represent the collective interests and priorities of the worldwide climate research, EC and National Research Programmes which establish research priorities and provide resources for climate research community within Europe.

9. (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008) the big picture… Earth Explorers ENVISAT/ERS National Missions Meteo Missions (EUMETSAT) GMES Sentinels

10. Objectives To realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA together with its Member states have established over the last thirty years, as a significant and timely contribution to the ECV databases required by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Implement all steps necessary for the systematic generation and regular updating of the relevant ECVs, A coherent and continuous suite of actions fully coordinated with on-going international efforts in the climate change community (eg. WCRP, IGBP, SCOPE, etc) Ensure full capital is derived from on-going & planned ESA missions for climate purposes, Focus on 21 ECVs (ESA missions :18 primary, 3 secondary)

11. Programmatic Context CCI New element of an existing ESA programme (Earthwatch) For generation and assessment of ECVs Duration 6 years (2009 – 2014) : Budget 75 Meuro Other complementary programmes EOEP ; Earthnet ; GMES For data archiving, retrieval, re-processing (L1-B), distribution Related activity in preparation ” Long Term Data Preservation ” - ESA programme proposal => 2011

12. Scope: Satellite-based ECVs Atmosphere Surface Air temperature; Precipitation Air pressure; Surface radiation budget; Wind Speed and direction; Water vapour Upper air Earth radiation budget; Upper-air temperature; Water vapour; Cloud properties; Wind speed & direction Composition Carbon dioxide Methane & other GHGs; Ozone; Aerosol properties Ocean Surface Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Ocean colour Carbon dioxide partial pressure Sub-surface Temperature, Salinity; Current; Nutrients; Carbon; Ocean tracers; Phytoplankton Terrestrial Lake levels,; Snow cover; Glaciers & ice caps; Albedo; Land Cover Fraction of absorbed photo-synthetically active radiation; LAI Biomass, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture Water use, Ground water, River discharge Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground

13. Significance of response to GCOS requirements and to scientific priorities of international climate research and modelling communities Availability and accessibility of suitable long time-series of adequately stable, calibrated satellite observations from which to constitute FCDRs & derive ECVs Relative importance, uniqueness and complementarity of ESA EO missions data in the context of the coordinated international response to GCOS Maturity of the methodology & algorithms related to one or more ECVs Capitalizing on established European excellence in generating and delivering high quality global EO data products Effective engagement of complementary scientific expertise, and technical capabilities from participating states, to achieve a coherent European effort for GCOS, by efficient use of resources available to CCI Prospects for transiting capabilities developed under CCI to an operational context for future regular updating and continuous availability of ECVs Prioritization Criteria

14. critical objectives, scientific challenges, major undertakings, key milestones of international climate research programmes potential impact & relative importance for climate research & modelling programmes, of the satellite-based ECV data mechanisms by which the feedback loops necessary to achieve GCOS objectives can be implemented & improved via CCI products & FCDRs mechanisms by which this programme can further enhance interactions between EO data communities & climate research communities how to facilitate use of the programme results within IPCC process ensuring the scientific integrity of climate-related information for general public & decision makers Advice from Climate Science Community (CSAB)

15. ESA Project Plan Climate Change Initiative Project Plan

16. ESA Programme interactions ESA Climate Change Initiative EO Archives Reprocessing ECV Generation & Assessment 1 23 4 5 Activities Raw EO Data L1B/2 ECVs Earthnet (TPM) EOEP (ERS/ENVISAT`/Explorers) GMES (Sentinels) LTDP

17. Programme Structure No ‘ big-bang’, progressive build-up of activities, Extensive Scientific user consultation (EO science & climate modelling communities) at start of programme (Yrs 1-2), Major Systems development to be built up during the middle years of the programme (Yrs 3-5), Systematic Trends assessment & data assimilation will build later in the programme (Yrs 3-6), Activities to be conducted in parallel, supported by continuous Data archiving / retrieval / re-processing.

18. Overall Schedule

19. Procurement Approach Contracts for EO data gathering / re-processing, Existing data centres in ESA EO ground segment, Specific upgrades for climate may be integrated with other upgrades to same facilities. Contracts for ECV Requirements engineering / algorithm development, EO science community and experts, Value 1- 2 MEuro ; 3 years duration ; up to 10 contracts in total Contracts for ECV Systems development operations / validation Industrial system developers, Value of 3- 5 MEuro ; 3 years duration; up to 10 contracts in total. Contracts for Data assimilation / long-term trends assessment of ECVs, Climate research & modelling centres Value of 1- 3 MEuro, 2-3 years duration, 1or 2 contracts

20. ESA missions data => FCDRs => ECVs Sea Level SST Ocean Colour Sea state Ocean salinity Sea ice concentration Lakes Glaciers & ice caps Land cover faPAR LAI Biomass Burned area & active fire Soil moisture (research) Snow area Albedo Cloud properties O3 total and profiles Aerosol OD & other props GHGs distribution Upper air winds

21. Programmes: implementation & management All ESA programmes - are implemented via - contracts with industry and research organizations in ESA states Contracts are awarded via open competitive tender - geo-return targets apply An ESA team manages the programme - Statements of work - technical specifications - procurements - acceptance of deliverables - monitoring progress - reporting to member states Successful industry & research teams execute the work

22. User communities feedback ECMWF MPI Hadley Centre Rossby Centre … Major climate modelling centres Specialized “EO data communities” ECV 1 ECV 2 ECV 3 Specialized climate research groups

23. - Systematically track changes in climate system & forcings e.g. trends in ECVs - Assess consistency across related ECVs e.g. sea-level, ice melting, SST - Analyse global data products (e.g. re-analysis data sets) - Provide assessment feedback: error analyses, anomalies, inconsistencies - Test sensitivity of models to new data e.g. Observing System Experiments - Confront model output with observations to validate model simulation - Assimilate data into models to constrain simulations User assessment and feedback

24. SST ECV User Numbers: >100Key Users: ECMWF, UKMO, GHRSST, MET.NO, MERCATOR, DMI, BS-GOOS, NPI, MFC, BOOS ESA Europe World 199120152009199520022012 2005- NRT only MEDSPIRATION Duration 2000 Time series AATSR, AVHRR, SEVIRI, AMSRE, TMI Projects Data Users

25. SST ECV GCOS Requirements for SST: Requirements for SST: FCDR generation –Maintenance of the existing sensors and assure continuity. –reprocessing of the existing records. –improving resolution to meet GCOS targets. Algorithm issues –Quality, maintenance and distribution of in situ observations, especially the shipborne surface-viewing radiometers, for product calibration and validation –Improvements in cloud, wind and aerosol characterization –Product merging and optimisation approaches. –Improvement in error statistics. –Lack of continuity of microwave obs (GCOM-W 1 sat confirmed, NPOESS MIS tbd) –Generation of diurnal cycle information from geostationary datasets (variable quality) –Model development for assimilation of products Linked Projects GCOS RequirementCurrent Status (A)ATSR  Accuracy:  Spatial resolution:  Temporal resolution:  Stability: 0.25ºC 1 km 3-hourly 0.1ºC/decade 0.15ºC 1 km (nadir only, narrow swath 3-5 days 0.05ºC/decade ARC full record ATSR 2007-2011 GHRSST Reanalysis Project, NCDC Climate Initiative HadSST blended analysis

26. THANK YOU Olivier Arino ESA Climate Change Initiative olivier.arino@esa.int http://www.esa.int For more Information http://www.esa.int